It is early 2026, and if you live in Wisconsin, your mailbox is probably already screaming at you. With Governor Tony Evers officially out of the picture, the question of who is projected to win Wisconsin has become the obsession of every political junkie from Superior to Kenosha.
Honestly? Nobody knows for sure yet.
Wisconsin is the ultimate "purple" headache. It's a state where the presidential margins are thinner than a slice of deli provolone. We’re talking about a place that went for Trump in 2024 but re-elected a Democratic Governor in 2022. It’s weird. It’s volatile. And right now, the 2026 gubernatorial race is being labeled a "pure toss-up" by basically every major analyst.
The Democratic Hunger for a "Trifecta"
For the first time in sixteen years, Wisconsin Democrats are smelling blood in the water. They are chasing the "T-word"—a trifecta. That’s when one party holds the Governor’s mansion, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.
Why now? Because the maps changed. After years of what Democrats called "surgical gerrymandering," the liberal-controlled State Supreme Court threw out the old legislative boundaries. For the first time in a decade, Democrats have a mathematical path to winning the legislature.
But they have to hold the Governor's seat first.
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The primary field is crowded. You've got Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who just dropped some massive fundraising numbers. He raised over $800,000 in the last half of 2025, according to reports filed on January 15, 2026. He’s leaning hard on his executive experience, basically telling voters, "I’ve managed billion-dollar budgets while others just talk about them."
Then there’s Mandela Barnes. You remember him from the 2022 Senate race where he lost to Ron Johnson by a hair—just about 27,000 votes. He has the highest name recognition in the field. He’s a fundraising machine, pulling in $555,000 in just his first month of campaigning.
Don't count out Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, either. She was the first one to jump in the race back in July 2025. She’s positioning herself as the natural heir to the Evers legacy.
The GOP's Path Back to Power
On the Republican side, things look a bit more streamlined, but no less intense. The presumptive frontrunner is U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany.
Tiffany is a staunch Trump ally. He’s got the MAGA credentials that usually sail through a Wisconsin primary. He’s already sitting on over $2 million. He’s talking about a "72-county strategy," which is code for "I’m not going to ignore the rural areas that Trump won so handily."
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His main competition right now is Josh Schoemann, the Washington County Executive. Schoemann is trying to play the "local guy" card. He’s raised about $1 million and is banking on the idea that voters are tired of "Washington D.C. types" like Tiffany.
It’s a classic primary battle: the firebrand versus the local administrator.
What the Polls Are Actually Saying
If you’re looking for a definitive answer on who is projected to win Wisconsin, the January 2026 polls are... frustratingly vague.
A Marquette Law School poll from late 2025 found that about 81% of Democratic voters and 70% of Republican voters were still "undecided" on their primary picks. Most people just aren't tuned in yet. They’re still recovery from the 2024 election cycle.
However, early "head-to-head" internal polls—which you should always take with a grain of salt—suggest a Mandela Barnes vs. Tom Tiffany matchup would be a dead heat. We’re talking 48-48 or 49-47 margins.
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The "Hidden" Race: The Supreme Court
You can't talk about the Governor’s race without mentioning the Wisconsin Supreme Court election happening this April.
Chris Taylor, a Democratic-backed judge, is running against Maria Lazar, the conservative choice. Taylor is currently obliterating Lazar in fundraising, reporting about $2.6 million for the year compared to Lazar’s $200,000.
Why does this matter for the Governor? Because whoever wins in April sets the "vibe" for November. If Taylor wins big, it signals a Democratic "blue wave" momentum. If Lazar pulls off an upset, Republicans will feel invincible going into the summer.
Critical Factors That Will Decide the Winner
- The "Evers Factor": Can a new Democrat hold onto the "nice guy" moderate voters that Tony Evers won over? Or will they be painted as "too Madison" or "too Milwaukee" for the rest of the state?
- The Trump Shadow: How much does the national political environment weigh down the GOP nominee? If the Trump administration’s policies are polarizing by mid-2026, it could be a drag on Tiffany.
- The New Maps: This is the big one. If Democrats flip the Assembly, the Governor’s office becomes the ultimate prize for Republicans to act as a "veto check."
Actionable Steps for Wisconsin Voters
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, don't wait until November.
- Check your registration: Wisconsin allows same-day registration, but it’s a lot easier to do it online at MyVote WI before the Spring primary.
- Watch the April 7th election: This Supreme Court race is the "canary in the coal mine." It will tell you more about who is projected to win Wisconsin than any pundit on TV.
- Follow the money: In Wisconsin, money doesn't always buy the win, but it buys the "airtime." Watch the February campaign finance filings to see if any dark horse candidates are starting to gain steam.
The August 11, 2026, primary will narrow this field down, but until then, expect a wild, expensive, and very close ride.