If you’re sitting there wondering who is most likely to be president in 2025, I have some news that might feel like a bit of a spoiler. We aren't in a "guessing" phase anymore. Honestly, the answer isn't about polling or "momentum" or who had a better week on the campaign trail.
Donald J. Trump is the president in 2025.
It’s done. He won.
On January 20, 2025, he stood on the Capitol steps and took the oath of office for the second time. It was a massive moment, not just because of the politics, but because he became only the second person in American history to pull off a non-consecutive return to the White House. Grover Cleveland is the only other guy in that club, and he did it way back in the 1890s.
The numbers that decided who is most likely to be president in 2025
You’ve probably seen the maps with all that red in the middle. Trump didn't just squeak by; he actually grabbed 312 electoral votes. Kamala Harris ended up with 226.
What really shocked the pundits, though, was the popular vote. For the first time, Trump actually won the total count of every individual vote cast across the country. It wasn't just a "swing state" fluke. He picked up about 77.3 million votes, while Harris saw around 75 million. Basically, the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—the states Democrats usually count on—all flipped red.
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Even Nevada went Republican for the first time since George W. Bush was running in 2004.
Why the 2024 election felt so different
It’s weird looking back at the 2024 cycle because it felt like three different movies spliced together. First, we had the Biden-Trump rematch that everyone seemed kind of exhausted by. Then, that June debate happened. Biden’s performance was... well, it was rough.
After weeks of high-stakes drama and private meetings, Joe Biden dropped out in July.
Suddenly, Kamala Harris was the nominee. She had a huge burst of energy and raised a ton of money really fast. People started saying she was the one most likely to be president in 2025. But as the fall rolled around, the focus shifted back to the economy and the border.
Trump’s campaign hammered the message of "are you better off than you were four years ago?" For a lot of voters in places like Erie, Pennsylvania, or Maricopa County, Arizona, the answer was "no."
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What the 2025 presidency looks like right now
So, we’re now living in the reality of a second Trump term. It’s not a hypothetical anymore.
JD Vance is the Vice President. He’s the first millennial in that spot, which is a pretty big shift in DC dynamics. The administration hit the ground running with some massive, controversial moves.
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): This was a big talking point. Elon Musk was brought in to lead a group aimed at slashing government spending.
- Tariffs: Trump started pushing his "Liberation Day" tariffs almost immediately. The stock market had a bit of a freakout at first, but it’s been a wild ride for investors ever since.
- Foreign Policy: The approach to the wars in Gaza and Ukraine changed overnight. There’s been a huge push for "America First" isolationism, but also a weirdly intense focus on Venezuela.
The Cabinet and the "New Guard"
The names in the news every day are different now. Marco Rubio is the Secretary of State. Karoline Leavitt is the one standing behind the podium at the White House press briefings. It feels like a very different vibe than the first Trump term. There’s less of the "old guard" Republican establishment and a lot more people who are strictly loyal to the MAGA platform.
It's also worth noting that we're now in 2026. The focus has already started shifting toward the midterm elections. People are already arguing about whether Republicans can keep control of the House and Senate, or if the Democrats will stage a comeback.
Misconceptions about how we got here
A lot of people thought the legal cases against Trump would be the deciding factor. Remember the New York conviction? He was the first person to win the presidency with a felony on his record.
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But instead of tanking his numbers, his supporters saw it as "lawfare." It actually helped him raise more money.
Another big myth was that Gen Z would overwhelmingly save the Democrats. While many young people did vote for Harris, a surprising number of young men moved toward Trump. According to Pew Research data from June 2025, the GOP made huge gains with Hispanic and Black male voters too. The old "demographics are destiny" argument that Democrats relied on for years basically crumbled in 2024.
Moving forward in the 2025-2029 term
If you're trying to navigate this new political landscape, here are a few things to keep in mind:
- Watch the courts: Even with Trump in power, the legal battles haven't stopped. They’ve just changed shape.
- Keep an eye on the 2026 midterms: History says the president's party usually loses seats, but these aren't "usual" times.
- Follow the money: The DOGE initiatives and the new tariff structures are going to affect your taxes and the price of your groceries more than any tweet or speech will.
The question of who is most likely to be president in 2025 was answered on a cold Tuesday in November. Now, the real question is how the country handles the next three years of this administration before the 2028 cycle starts all over again.
To stay informed, you should track the specific policy rollouts from the White House's official briefing room and cross-reference them with independent economic reports on inflation and trade. Understanding the actual legislation being signed is more useful now than following the political horse race.