It feels weird to talk about 2028 when we’re barely into 2026, right? But honestly, the "invisible primary" is already screaming. If you look at the political calendar, we’re at that awkward middle point where the current administration is settling in, but the ambitious types are already making dinner reservations in Des Moines and Manchester.
People always ask who is likely to run for president in 2028, and the answer usually depends on who is currently making the most noise on cable news. Right now, the field is split between "heirs apparent" and governors who are trying very hard to look like they aren't auditioning for a job they clearly want.
The Republican Side: Is it Vance’s to Lose?
Politics moves fast. One minute you're a freshman Senator, the next you're the heartbeat of the MAGA movement. As of early 2026, JD Vance is the massive elephant in the room. He’s the sitting Vice President, and in the GOP, that usually puts you first in line. Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire and various betting markets like Kalshi have him miles ahead of any other Republican. We’re talking 50% support in some early primary snapshots.
But it’s never that simple.
There’s a whole wing of the party that isn't ready to just hand him the crown. Marco Rubio, now serving as Secretary of State, has been a name on every "future president" list since 2010. While he’s hinted he might stay out if Vance is the guy, "ruling it out" in politics basically means "I'm waiting for a better poll."
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Then you have the Florida factor. Ron DeSantis is still there. His 2024 run was... let's call it a learning experience. But he’s term-limited in Florida come 2027. He’s been busy signing laws and picking fights that keep his name in the national headlines. Some say his "magic" is gone, but with 45% support in some deep-dive GOP polls, he’s a massive threat if Vance slips up.
The GOP "Wild Cards"
Don't ignore the people in the periphery.
- Donald Trump Jr.: He has a massive connection with the base. Some polls put him in second place behind Vance.
- Tulsi Gabbard: Now serving in the administration, she’s become a favorite for the anti-interventionist wing.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders: She’s up for re-election as Governor of Arkansas this year. If she wins big, the 2028 rumors will turn into a roar.
The Democratic Scramble: A Wide Open Field
On the Democratic side, there isn't a clear "boss" right now. It’s kinda chaotic. Gavin Newsom is effectively running a shadow campaign already. He’s been touring South Carolina—a state he has no reason to visit as the Governor of California—and his "Campaign for Democracy" PAC has raised over $100 million. He told CBS recently that he’d be "lying" if he said he wasn't thinking about 2028.
But Newsom has a "Rust Belt" problem. Can a sleek Californian win in Pennsylvania or Michigan?
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That’s where Josh Shapiro comes in. The Pennsylvania Governor is the current darling of the moderate wing. He’s got that "I actually get stuff done" vibe that donors love. In late 2025, some internal predictions actually saw him leapfrog Newsom in terms of "viability." He’s 52, he’s popular in a swing state, and he hasn't annoyed the far-left as much as some others.
The New Hampshire Favorites
If you look at the 2028 New Hampshire primary polls from late last year, the names at the top might surprise you:
- Pete Buttigieg: Still incredibly popular with the base. He’s got a +75 net favorability rating among Democrats.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: She’s been touring with Bernie Sanders and has a lock on the progressive "socialist" wing.
- Kamala Harris: You can't count out a former VP. She still holds about 11-15% of the early "ideal candidate" vote.
Why 2026 is Actually the Most Important Year
We’re in a midterm year. This is the "make or break" moment for who is likely to run for president in 2028.
If Josh Shapiro or Sarah Huckabee Sanders stumble in their gubernatorial races, their 2028 hopes are basically dead on arrival. Conversely, if someone like Andy Beshear—the Democratic Governor of deep-red Kentucky—continues to look like a miracle worker, his stock will skyrocket.
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Honestly, the biggest hurdle for everyone is the current economic climate. If the 2026 midterms result in a massive shift in Congress, the blame (or credit) will stick to the frontrunners.
What Most People Get Wrong About 2028
People think it’s all about name recognition. It isn't. It’s about infrastructure.
Newsom is building a donor network. Vance is building a delegate strategy. Shapiro is building a "voter-neutral" brand. By the time 2027 rolls around and people actually start "announcing," the race will already be half over.
Also, watch out for the celebrities. It sounds like a joke, but Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is still pulling 4% in some betting markets. In a world where celebrity status is a political currency, an outsider could easily disrupt this whole professional-politician list.
Actionable Ways to Track the 2028 Race
If you want to know who is actually serious about running, stop reading their tweets and start looking at their travel schedules.
- Check the "Big Three" states: Anyone visiting Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina without a government reason is running. Period.
- Follow the PAC money: Look at where Gavin Newsom or Ron DeSantis are sending their excess campaign funds. If they are giving to local candidates in swing states, they are buying loyalty for 2028.
- Watch the midterms: The winners of the 2026 governor races in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are your 2028 shortlist.
Keep an eye on the 2026 midterm results this November. They will be the first real filter for the 2028 field, separating the genuine contenders from the people just looking for a book deal.