It is January 2026, and the honeymoon phase for President Donald Trump’s second term didn't just end—it kinda evaporated. If you’re looking at the numbers and wondering who is leading in the presidential polls right now, the answer is messy. We aren't in an election year for the White House, but the "invisible primary" for 2028 is already screaming, and the 2026 midterms are looming like a dark cloud over Capitol Hill.
Honestly, the data is a bit of a gut punch for the administration.
Most recent surveys show a president struggling to hold onto the coalition that put him back in office just over a year ago. According to the latest Gallup data from December and early January, Trump’s approval rating has settled into a chilly 36%. That matches his all-time low from 2017. If you look at the RealClearPolitics average as of January 9, 2026, he’s sitting at 44.1% approval against 52.7% disapproval. It’s a net negative of nearly nine points, and that’s actually a "rebound" from a worse dip in November.
The Independent Exodus
What happened? Basically, independents walked out.
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In January 2025, Trump actually had a decent standing with independent voters—he was only about one point underwater. But by the time we hit December, that number cratered. Harry Enten over at CNN recently pointed out that Trump is now 43 points underwater with independents. That’s a 42-point drop in a single year. You just don't see shifts that violent very often in American politics.
People are feeling the pinch at the grocery store, and they're blaming the guy at the top. While the administration points to 4.3% GDP growth in Q3, about half of the country thinks we’re in a recession. It’s a weird disconnect. You’ve got the White House saying the "inflation has stopped," but 75% of Americans in a recent Brookings report say they think the new tariffs are actually the thing driving prices up.
Who is Winning the 2028 "Shadow Race"?
Since Trump is term-limited, everyone is already looking at who comes next. The "who is leading in the presidential polls right now" question usually shifts to the 2028 contenders this early in the cycle.
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On the Democratic side, Gavin Newsom is the name to watch. A Yahoo/YouGov poll put him at the front of the pack with 21% support among Democrats. Kamala Harris is right on his heels at 19%, though she’s been keepin' a lower profile lately. Then you’ve got Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania, who is sitting on a massive 60% job approval in his home state. That makes him a terrifying prospect for Republicans in a general election.
For the GOP, the spotlight is naturally on Vice President J.D. Vance. He’s currently the betting favorite on platforms like Kalshi, holding about 28% of the "next president" market. But he’s tied to the current administration’s poll numbers. If Trump’s approval stays in the 30s, Vance has a very steep hill to climb to prove he’s more than just a second mate on a sinking ship.
The 2026 Midterm Threat
We are months away from the midterms, and the "generic ballot"—which asks people if they’d rather vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress—is leaning blue. Democrats currently hold a 4.5-point edge.
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- The Economy: Only 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s management of the economy right now.
- Foreign Policy: The strike in Venezuela and the capture of Maduro actually got a 50% approval rating, but 70% of voters told Quinnipiac they don't want military action against Iran.
- Party ID: Gallup found that a record 45% of people now identify as Independents.
What This Means for You
Don't get too hung up on a single poll. Statistics this far out from an election are more about "vibes" and "direction" than actual results. However, the trend is clear: the populist surge of 2024 has hit a wall of economic reality.
If you're trying to keep track of who is leading in the presidential polls right now, keep an eye on these three things over the next six months:
- The "Kitchen Table" Numbers: If approval for "handling the economy" stays below 40%, the GOP is likely to lose the House in November.
- The Newsom vs. Shapiro Factor: Watch who spends more time in Iowa and New Hampshire this summer. That’s your real 2028 indicator.
- The Independent Lean: If those 45% of independent voters continue to lean toward Democrats (currently 20% lean blue vs 15% lean red), the 2024 "realignment" might have been a fluke rather than a permanent shift.
Stay skeptical of Truth Social posts claiming 64% approval without data. Stick to the aggregates from Marist, AP-NORC, and Emerson. The numbers don't lie, even when they’re uncomfortable.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
To get the most accurate picture of the political landscape, you should check the non-partisan polling aggregates once a week rather than following daily headlines. Look specifically at "Likely Voter" screens rather than "Registered Voters" as we get closer to the 2026 midterms, as these provide a more realistic preview of who will actually show up at the ballot box.