If you’re refreshing your feed to see who is leading in the presidential election right now, you might be feeling a bit of a time-warp effect. It’s January 2026. The next time we actually go to the polls to pick a president isn't until November 7, 2028. But honestly, the "invisible" race? That’s already moving at 100 miles per hour.
Politics never actually sleeps.
Right now, Donald Trump is the sitting president. He won the 2024 election and took the oath for his second term on January 20, 2025. Because of the 22nd Amendment, he can’t run again. That simple fact has turned the current political landscape into a wild, open-field sprint where everyone is trying to figure out who's the heir apparent and who's the giant-slayer.
The State of Play: Who Is Leading In The Presidential Election Right Now?
Technically, nobody is "leading" because there isn't a live ballot. But if we’re talking about the "Generic Congressional Ballot"—which is the best way to see which party has the momentum—the Democrats currently have a slight edge. Recent polling from aggregators like RealClearPolitics and Decision Desk HQ shows Democrats leading by about 4 points.
That sounds like a lot, but it’s actually pretty standard for the "out" party to lead during a midterm year.
👉 See also: NYC Subway 6 Train Delay: What Actually Happens Under Lexington Avenue
We’re heading into the 2026 midterms, and those results are going to dictate the "leaderboard" for 2028. If the GOP holds the House and Senate, Vice President JD Vance basically becomes the presumptive Republican nominee by default. If the Democrats flip the House—which current January 2026 data suggests is a real possibility—the 2028 race becomes a total free-for-all.
The Republican Side: Is it the Vance Show?
JD Vance is in a weird spot. He’s the Vice President, so he has the name ID and the donor network. But being the #2 means you’re tied to every policy the administration makes.
- The Approval Rating Factor: President Trump’s approval rating has hovered around the high 30s to low 40s throughout early 2026.
- The Challenger Shadow: Keep an eye on figures like Florida’s Ron DeSantis or even tech-adjacent figures who might try to claim the "Trumpism without Trump" lane.
- The Base Loyalty: Right now, about 91% of Republicans still back the administration's direction, but independent voters have been drifting away over the last 12 months.
The Democratic Side: The "Open Field" Problem
Since there’s no incumbent Democrat, the "leader" is basically whoever gets the most viral clip on social media this week.
Names like Governor Josh Shapiro, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and even former VP Kamala Harris are constantly being tested in hypothetical 2028 polls. Most of these early polls show a dead heat. Honestly, the person "leading" the Democratic side right now isn't a person—it's the concept of "The Alternative."
✨ Don't miss: No Kings Day 2025: What Most People Get Wrong
Why the 2026 Midterms are the Real "Presidential" Race
You can't talk about who is leading in the presidential election right now without talking about November 3, 2026. That’s the midterm election.
History is a bit of a jerk to sitting presidents. Usually, the president’s party loses seats in their first midterm. If that happens to Trump and the GOP in 2026, the 2028 "leading" candidates will look very different. A Democratic "Blue Wave" in the midterms would likely propel someone like Hakeem Jeffries or a high-profile Governor into the pole position for 2028.
What the Polls are Actually Saying (and Why They're Sorta Wrong)
If you look at Morning Consult or YouGov polls from the first week of January 2026, you'll see a lot of "undecideds." Nearly 30% of adults say they don't know who they'd support for the next presidency.
That’s because people are tired.
🔗 Read more: NIES: What Most People Get Wrong About the National Institute for Environmental Studies
Inflation and the cost of living are still the #1 issues. An AP-NORC poll recently found that only 37% of Americans approve of the current handling of the economy. When people are grumpy about their bank accounts, the "leader" in the next election is almost always "The Other Guy."
Surprising Details Most People Miss
One thing nobody talks about is the mid-decade redistricting. In early 2026, several states are still fighting over how their voting maps are drawn. This isn't just "boring map stuff"—it literally determines which party has a head start for the 2028 Electoral College.
Also, watch the "MAHA" (Make America Healthy Again) movement. It’s become a huge part of the current administration’s platform in 2026, and whoever successfully tacks their name to that movement—whether it’s a Republican or a maverick Democrat—could jump to the front of the line.
Your Next Steps to Stay Informed
If you want to track who is actually winning the race for the White House before it even begins, stop looking at "President 2028" polls. They're mostly noise right now. Instead, do this:
- Watch the 2026 Generic Ballot: This tells you which party has the "vibes" on their side.
- Follow State-Level Approval: Look at how voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin feel about the current administration. Those three states will likely decide the next president again.
- Monitor Fundraising: In the next six months, look at which potential 2028 candidates are raising the most money for other people's midterm races. That’s how you build the alliances needed to lead a primary.
The race isn't on a ballot yet, but the foundation is being poured right now in January 2026. Whoever manages the economic narrative over the next twelve months will be the one leading the pack when the primary season officially kicks off next year.