Texas politics is a weird beast. You’ve probably heard for a decade that the state is "trending purple," yet every election cycle ends with Republicans holding the line. But as we head into the 2026 midterms, the numbers are doing something we haven't seen in a while.
Right now, if you’re asking who is leading in the polls in Texas, the answer depends entirely on which civil war you’re looking at. We aren't just looking at a Red vs. Blue fight anymore. It’s more like a three-way brawl within the GOP and a sudden, sharp shift in the Democratic pecking order.
The Senate Primary: A massive swing for Democrats
A few months ago, most people would have bet the house on Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. She’s got the national profile, the viral clips, and that "it" factor. But fresh data from Emerson College, released mid-January 2026, just threw a bucket of cold water on that narrative.
State Representative James Talarico has officially surged into the lead.
According to the latest Emerson poll, Talarico is sitting at 47% compared to Crockett’s 38%. That is a massive 17-point swing from just a month ago when a Texas Southern University (TSU) poll had Crockett in the driver's seat.
Why the sudden move? Basically, Talarico is eating into the Latino and white moderate vote. He’s leading by 34 points with Latino voters and 29 points with white voters. Crockett, meanwhile, is holding a literal fortress with Black voters—80% of them are backing her—but she’s losing ground with women and older voters who seem to be gravitating toward Talarico’s more "policy-heavy" approach.
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The Republican Senate Bloodbath: Cornyn vs. Paxton
If you think the Democratic side is spicy, the Republican primary is a total inferno. Usually, an incumbent Senator like John Cornyn would be cruising. Not this time.
Attorney General Ken Paxton is currently locked in a dead heat with Cornyn. The Emerson numbers have them at 27% for Paxton and 26% for Cornyn. Honestly, it’s a coin flip.
But there’s a third person in the room: Congressman Wesley Hunt. He’s polling at 16%, and that is the number that matters. Why? Because in Texas, you need 50% to win a primary. If nobody hits that mark, we go to a May runoff.
Current polling suggests a runoff is almost certain.
- The Trump Factor: About 50% of GOP voters say they’ll vote for whoever Donald Trump endorses. As of right now, he hasn't picked a side, though he's called both of them "friends."
- Money vs. Fire: Cornyn’s allies have already torched $40 million on ads to help his image. Paxton hasn't spent nearly as much but still has the "MAGA" base in a chokehold.
- The Gender Gap: Cornyn actually leads Paxton by 9 points among women, but Paxton crushes him by 8 points among men.
Abbott’s massive war chest and the Governor's race
While the Senate race is a toss-up, the Governor's mansion looks a bit more stable—at least for now. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term, and he is walking into 2026 with a staggering $105.7 million in the bank.
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To put that in perspective, his main Democratic challenger, State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, raised $1.3 million in her first ten weeks. That’s a "David vs. Goliath" situation, except Goliath has a hundred-million-dollar slingshot.
The polling reflects that financial reality. Abbott currently leads Hinojosa 50% to 42%.
Is an 8-point lead safe? In most states, yes. In Texas, it’s enough to keep Republicans comfortable, but it’s not the 20-point blowouts we used to see. Abbott’s approval rating is split right down the middle—47% approve and 47% disapprove. He’s essentially the human personification of the state’s current political divide.
What voters actually care about (It’s not just the border)
We always hear that the border is the only thing Texans care about. The polls say otherwise. While immigration is still a top-three issue, it has actually dropped in priority.
- The Economy (28%): Still the undisputed king of concerns. People are feeling the pinch, and they’re voting with their wallets.
- Threats to Democracy (17%): This has jumped up recently. Both sides use this phrase, but they mean very different things by it.
- Immigration (14%): It’s down 7 points from previous polls.
Housing affordability and healthcare are also creeping up the list. If you're a candidate and you're only talking about the border, you're missing about 85% of what’s actually keeping Texans up at night.
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The General Election: Can a Democrat actually win?
If the election were held today, Republicans still have the edge.
In a head-to-head matchup:
- Cornyn leads Talarico 47% to 44%.
- Paxton and Talarico are tied at 46% each.
This is the most interesting part of the data. Ken Paxton, despite his legal controversies and the 2023 impeachment drama, polls exactly the same as James Talarico in a general election. However, he also underperforms Cornyn. Democrats are looking at those Paxton numbers and licking their chops, hoping for a repeat of the 2024 national trends where "unconventional" candidates struggled in swing-ish environments.
Actionable insights: What to watch next
If you're following the Texas polls, stop looking at the top-line numbers for a second and focus on these three things:
- The May Runoff: Watch the Republican Senate primary on March 3. If Cornyn and Paxton don't hit 50%, the next two months will be the nastiest political fighting in Texas history.
- Latino Voter Shifts: Talarico’s 34-point lead with Latinos in the primary is the reason he's winning. If Crockett can't win back that demographic, the primary is over.
- The "Trump Bump": As soon as a Trump endorsement drops in the Senate race, expect the polls to shift by 10 or 15 points overnight.
Texas is no longer a "reliable" lock for any specific faction. It’s a state in transition, where the primaries are currently more important—and more volatile—than the general election itself.