If you’ve been scrolling through your feed lately or catching the snippets of shouting matches in Ottawa, you probably feel like the political ground in Canada is shifting under your feet every five minutes. Honestly, it kind of is. We’re sitting in early 2026, and the "Trudeau era" is officially in the rearview mirror, but the dust hasn't exactly settled into a clear picture of what’s next.
So, who is leading in the polls in Canada right now? If you want the short, somewhat messy answer: it’s a dogfight.
For the better part of late 2023 and all of 2024, Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives weren't just leading; they were practically measuring the drapes for 24 Sussex Drive. But then 2025 happened. Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the arrival of Mark Carney changed the math entirely. Now, as we hit the mid-January 2026 mark, the latest data from firms like Liaison Strategies and Nanos Research shows a national race that is basically a statistical tie, with the Liberals holding a razor-thin edge that could vanish with a single bad news cycle.
The Numbers: A Dead Heat to Start 2026
To understand where we are, you have to look at the "big three" pollsters who have been tracking this roller coaster.
Liaison Strategies just dropped a bombshell of a tracker on January 12, 2026. It puts the Liberals at 39% and the Conservatives at 36%. If that sounds like a lead, remember the margin of error is usually around 3%. That’s a "literal tie" in pollster-speak.
Meanwhile, Nanos Research—known for their four-week rolling averages—shows a similar story. They have the Liberals hovering around 39% with the Conservatives at 36%. The NDP? They’re trailing significantly at 11%, seemingly squeezed by a "Carney effect" that is pulling progressive voters who are terrified of a Poilievre majority.
It’s a massive swing from a year ago. Back in January 2025, Abacus Data had the Conservatives leading by a staggering 26 points. Imagine that. A 26-point lead evaporating in twelve months.
Why the "Carney Factor" Flipped the Script
The biggest thing people get wrong about current polling is thinking this is still a referendum on the old Liberal government. It's not.
When Mark Carney took over, he did something Justin Trudeau couldn't do toward the end: he neutralized the "competence" argument. For years, Poilievre hammered the Liberals on being "not worth the cost." It worked because people were frustrated with the status quo.
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But Carney came in with a "grown-up in the room" vibe. The latest Nanos numbers show Carney leading Poilievre by 22 points on the "Preferred Prime Minister" metric. People might still be annoyed with the Liberal party brand, but they seem to trust Carney’s resume—former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Bank of England—to handle a choppy economy.
The "Trump Effect" and the Venezuela Crisis
You can't talk about Canadian polls in 2026 without talking about what's happening south of the border. With Donald Trump back in the White House and his recent military intervention in Venezuela, Canadians are spooked.
A Leger survey from January 15, 2026, found that one in three Canadians are actually worried about a U.S. invasion or extreme trade aggression against Canada. It sounds wild, but it’s driving the polls.
When Canadians feel threatened by the U.S., they tend to rally around the incumbent. Carney has positioned himself as the diplomat who can "manage Trump." Poilievre, meanwhile, is in a tough spot. He has to criticize the government without looking like he's siding with a chaotic U.S. administration. It’s a tightrope, and right now, the polls suggest he’s wobbling a bit.
Regional Breakdowns: Where the Battle is Won
National numbers are mostly for headlines. The real "who is leading in the polls in Canada" answer lives in the ridings.
- Ontario: The Liberals lead by about four points (42% to 38%). This is the ballgame. If Poilievre can’t flip the "905" area around Toronto, he can't win.
- Quebec: It’s a three-way mess. The Liberals are at 37%, leading the Bloc Québécois (31%) and the Conservatives (around 20%).
- Alberta and the Prairies: Total Conservative dominance. We’re talking 60% plus for Poilievre in Alberta. But the problem for the Conservatives is that you can only win those seats once. Winning by 40 points in Calgary doesn't help you win a seat in Mississauga.
- British Columbia: A true toss-up. Liaison has the Conservatives with a narrow edge at 39%, but it's within the margin of error.
The Fatigue Factor
Is Canada ready for an election? Abacus Data asked this just a few days ago (January 17, 2026).
The answer is a resounding... maybe.
There isn't a "burning desire" for an election, but about 50% of people say they’d be fine with one if it "fixed a dysfunctional Parliament." The Liberals are currently governing in a minority-style situation (though they are dominant in the polls), and the appetite for a "stability" election is growing.
What This Means for Your Next Few Months
If you're trying to figure out where the country is headed, stop looking at the national popular vote and start looking at voter pools.
The Conservatives still have a very "high floor." Their voters are angry, they are committed, and they will show up. The Liberals have a "high ceiling" but a "shaky floor." Their support is based on Carney's personal popularity and fear of the U.S. political climate. If Carney has a "scandal moment" or if Trump suddenly becomes friendly toward Ottawa, that Liberal lead could vanish overnight.
Actionable Insights for the Informed Voter
- Watch the "Preferred PM" Tracking: If Carney’s personal lead over Poilievre drops below 10 points, expect the Conservatives to start surging in the seat projections.
- Follow the 905: Keep an eye on regional polls specifically for the Greater Toronto Area. That is the only place that matters for a majority government.
- Check the "Right Direction / Wrong Track" Metric: Currently, about 60% of Canadians still feel the country is on the "wrong track." This is Poilievre’s biggest weapon. Even if people like Carney, they are still struggling with the cost of living.
- Ignore the Outliers: You’ll see "rogue" polls on Twitter or X showing 15-point leads for one side. Stick to the aggregates like 338Canada or the Nanos Weekly Tracking for a realistic view.
The reality of who is leading in the polls in Canada is that nobody is truly "winning" yet. We are in a period of intense volatility where global events are overshadowing local policy.
To stay truly updated, you should bookmark the Nanos Research Federal Tracker and the Liaison Strategies Weekly Report. These firms are currently providing the most frequent "real-time" data as we move through this uncertain start to 2026. Keep a close eye on the "undecided" number; at 16%, there are still enough quiet Canadians to flip the entire map by the time the next budget rolls around.