If you’re looking at Pennsylvania right now, it basically feels like a massive, high-stakes game of political chess where everyone is already thinking three moves ahead. Honestly, the 2024 dust has barely settled, yet the question of who is leading in PA for the 2026 cycle is already the only thing people in Harrisburg are talking about.
It’s a weird time. Trump won the state in 2024. Dave McCormick ousted Bob Casey. But then you look at the governor's office, and you see Josh Shapiro sitting there with approval ratings that would make most politicians weep with envy.
So, who's actually out front? If we’re talking about the governor’s mansion, it’s not even a contest right now. Josh Shapiro is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the moment, but the 2026 landscape is shifting under his feet faster than a sinkhole in the Lehigh Valley.
The Shapiro Factor: Why the Incumbent is Way Out Front
Let’s be real: Josh Shapiro is currently in a position of "unprecedented strength," as his campaign likes to remind everyone. He just officially launched his reelection bid on January 8, 2026, and he did it with a massive $30 million war chest.
That is a terrifying amount of money for a challenger to face.
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The latest data from Quinnipiac and other recent polls show Shapiro holding a 60% job approval rating. In a state as purple and polarized as Pennsylvania, those are "unicorn" numbers. In hypothetical 2026 matchups, Shapiro is leading potential Republican challengers by double digits.
- Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity: Shapiro leads 55% to 39%.
- Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano: Shapiro leads 56% to 39%.
But here's the kicker—Doug Mastriano just announced he’s not running this time. That changes the math. Mastriano was a lightning rod, a candidate who fired up the base but struggled with those all-important suburban "moderate" voters in places like Bucks and Montgomery counties. With him out of the picture, the Republican path gets a little clearer, even if it's still uphill.
Stacy Garrity: The Republican Frontrunner
So, if Mastriano is out, who is leading the charge for the GOP? That would be Stacy Garrity. She’s the current State Treasurer, and honestly, she’s been one of the few bright spots for Pennsylvania Republicans lately.
In the 2024 election, Garrity didn't just win reelection; she hauled in over 3.5 million votes. That was the most votes any statewide candidate received—more than Trump, more than McCormick. That's a serious data point that the Shapiro team is definitely not ignoring.
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Garrity is a bit of a hybrid. She’s got the "America First" credentials that keep the Trump base happy, but she’s also shown an ability to win statewide in a way that more polarizing figures haven't. Her challenge, though, is the "who-is-she" factor. Despite her vote totals, roughly 73% of voters in recent polls said they haven't heard enough about her to form an opinion.
Shapiro has 100% name ID. Garrity has the winning record but a much lower profile. That’s the gap she has to bridge over the next year.
The Fight for the General Assembly
While the governor's race gets the headlines, the real trench warfare is happening in the state legislature. Pennsylvania is currently one of the only states with a split legislature.
- State House: Democrats hold a razor-thin 1-seat majority (102-101).
- State Senate: Republicans have a 27-23 edge.
Control of the PA House is basically decided by a handful of suburban districts where the margin is often less than 500 votes. In 2026, every single one of the 203 House seats is up. If Shapiro remains as popular as he is now, his "coattails" could help Democrats expand their lead. But if the national mood soured—or if the 2024 Trump momentum continues—Republicans could easily flip the House back.
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In the Senate, only half the seats are up. Democrats are eyeing a 25-25 tie, which would effectively give them control because Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis holds the tie-breaking vote. It's a long shot, but in PA politics, "long shot" is just another Tuesday.
What Most People Get Wrong About PA Polling
People see Trump winning the state and then see Shapiro leading in 2026 and think the polls are broken. They aren't. Pennsylvania has a very long history of "split-ticket" voting.
Pennsylvanians are notoriously independent-minded. They might vote for a Republican president because of the economy or energy policy, then turn around and vote for a Democratic governor because they like his "Get S--- Done" (Shapiro's actual slogan) approach to fixing bridges or funding schools.
The 2026 race won't just be about "Red vs. Blue." It’s going to be about who can convince the "Eagles fans in the east and the Steelers fans in the west" (as the old saying goes) that they actually care about the price of eggs and the quality of the local roads.
Actionable Insights for PA Voters and Observers
If you're trying to keep track of the shifts in the coming months, stop looking at national headlines and start looking at these three things:
- Fundraising Deadlines: Watch if Garrity can start matching Shapiro's $10M-per-quarter pace. If she can't, the airwaves will be 100% Shapiro by next summer.
- The "Vulnerable Four" House Seats: Keep an eye on the 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th Congressional districts. These are the bellwethers. If Democrats are leading there, they're winning the state.
- Approval Ratings vs. Head-to-Heads: Don't just look at who someone would vote for. Look at Shapiro's approval rating among Independents. If that dips below 50%, the race is officially "on."
The 2026 primary is set for May 19, and the general election is November 3. Between now and then, expect a lot of rallies, a lot of attack ads, and a lot of talk about who is leading in PA—but remember, in the Keystone State, the only poll that ever seems to matter is the one on the first Tuesday of November.