Honestly, if you haven't been looking at the North Carolina political map lately, you're missing a total shift in the tectonic plates of the South.
For the first time in basically forever—or at least since they started keeping records—there are more registered Republicans than Democrats in the state. As of early January 2026, the GOP officially nudged ahead by about 2,000 voters. It’s a tiny margin, sure. But in a state where Democrats once held an 800,000-voter lead back in the Obama era, it’s a massive psychological blow.
So, who is leading in North Carolina right now?
The answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at the people currently sitting in the big chairs in Raleigh or the folks spending millions to replace them. We have a brand-new Governor, a high-stakes Senate seat that just opened up, and a voter base that is increasingly choosing "none of the above" when it comes to party labels.
The Senate Scramble: Cooper vs. Whatley
The biggest story in the state is the 2026 U.S. Senate race.
When Senator Thom Tillis announced he wouldn't seek re-election, he didn't just retire; he set off a political gold rush. Currently, former Governor Roy Cooper is the man to beat. He's got the name recognition. He's got the "nice guy" reputation that somehow survived eight years of bickering with the legislature.
Early polling from late 2025 and into this January shows Cooper with a roughly 5-to-6 point lead over Michael Whatley.
👉 See also: What Really Happened With the Women's Orchestra of Auschwitz
Whatley isn't exactly a household name yet, but he’s got the keys to the kingdom as the former RNC chair and has a massive endorsement from Donald Trump. If you’re a Republican in North Carolina, that’s basically the only endorsement that matters. Whatley is banking on the fact that while people like Roy Cooper, they might be getting tired of the same faces.
But Cooper has money. A lot of it.
His campaign reports from last fall showed him sitting on over $8 million in cash. That's a huge war chest for an early primary season. He's also leaning hard into his moderate "Tar Heel" brand, trying to convince those 2.9 million unaffiliated voters that he’s the stable choice in a chaotic era.
The Registration Revolution
We can't talk about who's winning without talking about the "Unholy Trinity" of North Carolina voters:
- The Unaffiliateds: 2.97 million people. They are the true kings of the state.
- The Republicans: 2.315 million. Now the largest official party.
- The Democrats: 2.133 million. Slipping into second place for the first time in history.
It's weird. Even as Democrats seem to be losing the "registration war," they keep winning the Governor's mansion.
Governor Josh Stein’s First 100 Days
Josh Stein just moved into the Governor’s Mansion a few weeks ago, and he’s already hitting the ground running—or at least trying to.
✨ Don't miss: How Much Did Trump Add to the National Debt Explained (Simply)
He won big in 2024, beating Mark Robinson by about 15 points. That’s a blowout in North Carolina terms. But winning the election was the easy part. Now he’s facing a General Assembly that has a Republican supermajority and zero interest in making his life easy.
Right now, the state is in a weird spot. We don't have a 2025-2026 budget yet. Stein is pushing for teacher raises and child care funding, while the legislature is focused on private school vouchers and cutting taxes even further.
Stein is "leading" the state executive branch, but the GOP leadership in the House and Senate—led by Phil Berger and Tim Moore—is leading the actual policy agenda. It’s a classic North Carolina stalemate.
The Issues Moving the Needle
If you ask a voter in Gastonia or Boone who is leading, they probably won't give you a name. They'll give you a price tag.
Inflation is still the "silent killer" in North Carolina politics. Even with the state's economy growing, the cost of housing in places like Raleigh and Charlotte has gone through the roof.
- Medicaid and SNAP: New work requirements just kicked in this month.
- Energy Costs: They’re up about 6% over the last year, outpacing wage growth.
- Western NC Recovery: Parts of the west are still rebuilding from the 2024 storms, and the slow pace of state grants is a major sore spot.
Republicans are leaning into border security and "economic sanity." Democrats are focusing on "personal freedoms"—mostly reproductive rights—and education funding.
🔗 Read more: The Galveston Hurricane 1900 Orphanage Story Is More Tragic Than You Realized
Who Wins the Unaffiliated Vote?
This is where the race for the Senate will be decided.
North Carolina has a semi-open primary. That means if you aren't registered with a party, you can just show up on March 3rd and pick whichever ballot you want. Because the Democratic primary for Senate is basically a coronation for Roy Cooper, a lot of those swing voters might grab a Republican ballot just to have a say in the more crowded GOP field.
It's a gamble.
If Whatley can't define himself quickly, he might lose the middle to Cooper. But if the national mood turns sour on the current administration in Washington, the "R" next to his name might be all he needs.
Your Move in the Primary
Early voting starts February 12th. If you’re planning on having a say in who is leading in North Carolina, here is what you need to do:
- Check your ID: North Carolina now requires a photo ID to vote. If you're voting by mail, you have to include a photocopy of your ID in the envelope. No ID, no vote.
- The Deadline Looming: You need to be registered by February 6th. If you miss that, your only option is same-day registration during the early voting period (Feb 12-28).
- Request that Ballot: If you want to vote from your couch, get that absentee request in by February 17th.
The primary on March 3rd is going to tell us a lot. Will the GOP base consolidate behind Whatley, or will a dark horse like Michele Morrow or Don Brown cause an upset? Either way, North Carolina is no longer a "blue-leaning" or "red-leaning" state. It's a "whatever the independents feel like that day" state.