Honestly, if you're looking for a simple scoreboard for the 2028 election, you're gonna be a little disappointed. It is only January 2026. We are literally years away from a ballot box. But people are already asking who is in the presidential lead right now because, well, the political machine in D.C. never actually stops.
Right now, "the lead" isn't about votes. It's about vibes, approval ratings, and a whole lot of early-stage donor posturing. We’ve got a sitting president, Donald Trump, who is roughly one year into his second term, and the numbers coming out of the major pollsters—think CNN, SSRS, and Gallup—are looking kinda rough for the White House.
The Current Temperature: Trump's Approval Slump
You've probably seen the headlines. Trump's second act hasn't exactly been a honeymoon. According to recent SSRS and CNN data from mid-January 2026, about 60% of Americans are currently describing the first year of this term as a "failure." That’s a heavy word.
His approval rating is hovering somewhere around 39% to 42%, depending on which poll you trust more. For context, he started this term around 48% after the 2024 victory. That is a pretty significant slide for twelve months of work. People are feeling the pinch on the economy, and while the administration is pushing its agenda, the "average" voter seems to be pushing back.
The lead in the other party? That’s where things get messy and fun to watch. Since Trump can't run again due to the 22nd Amendment, the 2028 field is already wide open. It’s like a starting line where everyone is stretching their hamstrings but trying to look like they aren't interested in the race yet.
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Who Is In The Presidential Lead Right Now for 2028?
If we're talking about the 2028 primary "lead," we have to look at the people who actually have name recognition. On the Republican side, the person with the clearest path right now is Vice President J.D. Vance.
Vance is basically the heir apparent. In early primary state polls—like the Granite State Poll out of New Hampshire—Vance is crushing his potential rivals. He’s pulling about 51% support among likely Republican primary voters. The next person on that list is usually Nikki Haley or Tulsi Gabbard, but they are trailing by double digits. Rubio is in the mix too, especially given his high-profile role as Secretary of State, but Vance is the one holding the pole position.
On the Democratic side? It’s a total free-for-all.
There is no "incumbent" to rally around since Kamala Harris lost in 2024. This has created a vacuum that a few familiar names are trying to fill:
- Pete Buttigieg: He’s consistently at the top of early "favorability" lists. People know him, and he’s a beast on the Sunday news circuits.
- Gavin Newsom: The California Governor has been building a national profile for years. Even with the "California baggage" critics love to talk about, he’s leading many hypothetical Democratic primary polls with about 36% support in states like his own.
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC): She has the progressive lane almost entirely to herself right now, and her fundraising floor is basically a ceiling for anyone else.
- Josh Shapiro or Gretchen Whitmer: These are the "Rust Belt" darlings. They haven't made a huge national splash in the polls yet, but donors are obsessed with them because they know how to win in swing states.
Why the "Lead" Matters Two Years Early
You might think it’s way too early to care about who is in the presidential lead right now, but for the candidates, this is the "Money Primary."
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If you aren't in the top three of these early polls, big-ticket donors won't take your calls. If you can't get the donors, you can't build the ground game in Iowa or New Hampshire. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, Gavin Newsom and J.D. Vance are winning the "visibility" war, which is the only war that matters in January 2026.
The Issues Moving the Needle
If you want to know why the numbers are shifting, you have to look at what people are actually complaining about at the dinner table. It isn't just "politics." It's the cost of eggs and the fear of what's happening overseas.
Trump’s recent dip in the polls is largely tied to two things: the economy and "foreign adventurism." There’s been a lot of talk about military action in places like Venezuela or even the wild idea of Greenland, and the American public is basically saying, "Please, no." A Quinnipiac poll showed that 70% of voters want the President to get Congressional approval before doing anything major with the military.
Basically, the public is tired. They want stability. The person who can promise "boring but effective" is usually the one who starts gaining ground in these early-cycle "who is in the lead" conversations.
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What to Watch Next
Since we are in an election year—the 2026 Midterms—the "presidential lead" is actually going to be decided by proxy.
If the Republicans lose seats in the House or Senate this November, Trump’s influence wanes, and Vance might look "weaker" as a successor. If Democrats overperform, it validates the Newsom/Buttigieg/Shapiro wing of the party.
Watch the governors. Keep an eye on the approval ratings of J.D. Vance specifically. As the VP, his numbers are a bellwether for the MAGA movement's staying power. Currently, his approval is around 41%, with 49% disapproving. If he can flip those numbers by the end of the year, he’s almost certainly the 2028 nominee.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
- Check the Midterm Map: Focus on Senate races in Pennsylvania and Michigan. These are the true testing grounds for 2028 messaging.
- Track the "Favorability" Polls: Ignore the "Who would you vote for?" questions for now. Instead, look at "Who do you have a favorable opinion of?" This tells you who has the highest "ceiling" for growth.
- Follow the Money: Watch the Q1 2026 FEC filings for leadership PACs. That's where the real power is being consolidated while everyone else is watching the talking heads on TV.