The Wild Card round usually feels like a fever dream, but this year it was basically a demolition derby. If you’ve been living under a rock—or just forgot to check your phone since Monday night—the field has been cut down to the final eight. We started with fourteen hopefuls, but six of them are currently booking vacations to Cancun.
Honestly, the biggest shock wasn't even who won; it was how they did it. We saw the Houston Texans absolutely throttle the Steelers on a Monday night, ending a home winning streak for Pittsburgh that felt like it had existed since the dawn of time. Now, we’re staring down a Divisional Round that looks more like a heavyweight boxing card than a football schedule.
If you're asking who is in the playoffs nfl right now, you're looking at four survivors from the AFC and four from the NFC. The big dogs—the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks—are finally coming off their bye weeks, and they’re about to find out if "rest" actually beats "momentum."
The Final Eight: Who Survived the Bloodbath?
The bracket is officially locked. No more "what-if" scenarios or tiebreaker math. We have the matchups for the weekend of January 17-18, and they’re spicy.
In the AFC, we have the Denver Broncos (1), the New England Patriots (2), the Houston Texans (5), and the Buffalo Bills (6). Notice anything weird? Two of the top four seeds are already gone. The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers both got bounced on their own turf. It’s a tough business.
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Over in the NFC, the West is basically taking over the world. The Seattle Seahawks (1) are waiting at the top, but they’ve got company from their own division. The Chicago Bears (2), the Los Angeles Rams (5), and the San Francisco 49ers (6) make up the rest of the list. Yes, three out of the four remaining NFC teams are from the NFC West. That division is a gauntlet.
AFC Divisional Matchups
- Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: Saturday, Jan 17 at 4:30 PM ET (CBS/Paramount+). Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed, but he’s heading into the thin air of Mile High to face a Bo Nix-led offense and a defense that has been suffocating people all year.
- Houston Texans at New England Patriots: Sunday, Jan 18 at 3:00 PM ET (ABC/ESPN). Drake Maye vs. C.J. Stroud. This is the "Future of the NFL" bowl. Houston hasn't lost in ten games, which is kind of terrifying.
NFC Divisional Matchups
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: Saturday, Jan 17 at 8:00 PM ET (FOX). A division rivalry in the playoffs? Yes, please. Seattle dominated the regular season, but the Niners just took down the Eagles in Philly. They’re dangerous.
- Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: Sunday, Jan 18 at 6:30 PM ET (NBC/Peacock). The Bears survived a scare from Green Bay, and now they have to deal with Puka Nacua and a Rams offense that seems to score 30 points in its sleep.
Why the Wild Card Results Changed Everything
We have to talk about that Texans/Steelers game. It was a massacre. 30-6. Aaron Rodgers, playing for the Steelers in what might be his final act, looked every bit his age against a Houston defense that sacked him four times. Will Anderson Jr. was a nightmare.
The Steelers had won 23 straight home games on Monday Night Football. That streak is dead. Mike Tomlin's playoff losing streak now sits at seven games. It's a weird vibe in Pittsburgh right now, but for Houston, it’s a total party. They’ve won 10 in a row. When you're trying to figure out who is in the playoffs nfl that can actually win it all, you have to put Houston near the top of that list.
Then you have the Bills. They went into Jacksonville—a place that is usually a house of horrors for road teams—and escaped with a 27-24 win. Josh Allen was basically a one-man army. He’s dealing with a bruised knee and a bad finger, but he still put up a 94.0 PFF grade. That’s the highest of any quarterback in the opening round. If he’s healthy enough to run, Denver is going to have a long Saturday.
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The NFC West Dominance
It’s kinda wild that the 49ers and Rams are both still alive despite being the 6th and 5th seeds. But if you watched the regular season, it makes sense. The Rams' win over Carolina was a classic 34-31 shootout.
Puka Nacua is basically a cheat code at this point.
Meanwhile, the 49ers went into the Linc and beat the Eagles 23-19. That win officially guaranteed that we won't have a repeat Super Bowl champion this year. The Eagles' secondary just couldn't hold up. Now the Niners have to go to Seattle, a place where the 12th Man makes it nearly impossible to hear yourself think. The Seahawks went 14-3 for a reason. They are the most complete team in the NFC, period.
What to Watch for This Weekend
If you're planning your life around these games, here’s the deal. Saturday is the "West Coast" day. You get the Bills in the mountains and then a late-night slugfest in Seattle. Sunday is the "Legacy" day. You get the Patriots trying to prove the post-Belichick era is officially a success, followed by the Bears trying to defend Soldier Field against the Rams.
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The weather in Denver and Chicago is going to be a factor. It’s mid-January. It’s going to be cold. It might snow. For a team like the Rams, who play in a dome (mostly), that trip to Chicago is going to be a culture shock.
Who is in the playoffs nfl that has the best chance to win it all?
The Vegas odds still love the Broncos and Seahawks because of the home-field advantage. But keep an eye on Houston. C.J. Stroud is playing with a level of poise that doesn't make sense for his age. And the Bills? As long as #17 is taking snaps, they can beat anybody, anywhere.
Actionable Insights for the Divisional Round
- Watch the Injury Reports: Josh Allen’s finger and knee are the biggest storylines in the AFC. If he can't scramble, the Bills' offense becomes one-dimensional.
- Monitor the Weather: Check the wind speeds for the Bears/Rams game on Sunday evening. High winds at Soldier Field can turn a passing attack into a punting contest.
- Betting Trends: Underdogs went 4-2 against the spread in the Wild Card round. Don't be afraid to look at the points, especially with the 49ers and Texans.
- Home Field Limits: Only two home teams won in the Wild Card round (Bears and Patriots). The "home field advantage" isn't what it used to be, except maybe in Seattle.
The path to Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium is getting narrow. By Sunday night, we'll be down to the Final Four. Make sure your snacks are ready and your jersey is washed. This is the best weekend of the year.