If you’re looking at the headlines lately and wondering who is in the lead trump or harris, you’re probably noticing that the "race" isn't exactly what it was a year ago. We aren't in a campaign cycle for the White House right now. Donald Trump is already in the Oval Office, and Kamala Harris is currently on a national book tour promoting her memoir, 107 Days.
But politics doesn't just stop because an election ended. Honestly, the "lead" has shifted from electoral votes to something a lot more volatile: public approval and midterm momentum. While Trump holds the actual power of the presidency, the numbers coming out of early 2026 suggest a massive vibe shift that’s making the GOP very nervous about the upcoming November midterms.
The Approval Gap: Why the Numbers Are Flipping
Right now, Donald Trump is facing some pretty stiff headwinds. After a fairly convincing win in 2024, his approval rating has taken a significant hit. According to a recent Gallup poll from December, the President’s approval sat at just 36%. That’s a steep drop from the 49.8% of the popular vote he nabbed on election night.
Why the slide? It’s basically the economy. Even though Trump campaigned on fixing inflation, the public isn't feeling the relief yet. About 72% of Americans currently rate the economy as "fair or poor." People are pointing fingers at his aggressive tariff policies, which many believe are keeping prices high at the grocery store.
Harris, meanwhile, is playing a different game. She’s not in office, so she’s not the one people blame when their eggs cost six bucks.
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On her book tour—which just hit Jackson, Mississippi, and Memphis—she’s been drawing massive, sold-out crowds. She isn't just talking about her 107-day campaign; she’s actively framing the 2026 midterms as a "transactional" moment for voters. She’s essentially telling people: if you don’t like what’s happening in Washington right now, use your vote as a tool to change it. This "outsider" energy is helping Democrats take a surprising lead in generic ballot polling for the House and Senate.
Who Is In The Lead Trump Or Harris for the 2026 Midterms?
When people ask who is in the lead trump or harris today, they’re usually trying to figure out which party is going to control Congress. Right now, the momentum is swinging toward the Democrats.
The math for the 2026 midterms is razor-thin:
- The House: Democrats only need to flip three seats to take back the majority.
- The Senate: They need a net gain of four seats.
It’s a tall order, but look at the polling. Currently, Democrats hold a 5-point edge over Republicans in the generic midterm vote. Among independents, that lead grows to 11 points. This is a complete reversal from the end of 2024, when Trump had a substantial advantage on issues like managing inflation.
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Trump’s administration is moving fast with "Schedule F" and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA), which includes major cuts to things like the CDC and SNAP benefits. These moves are a hit with his core base, but they’re alienating the middle. While Trump has the "lead" in terms of executive action—he’s literally the one signing the orders—Harris is winning the popularity contest with the "exhausted majority" who feel like the new policies are going too far, too fast.
Policy vs. Popularity
It's kinda wild how much the narrative has changed in just a year. In early 2025, the Trump administration was riding high on a mandate for change. Now, in January 2026, the focus has shifted to the consequences of that change.
Harris has been very strategic. She’s staying in the public eye without having to defend a legislative record. In Jackson, she talked to a sixth-grader about leadership and told the audience to stop voting out of "moral responsibility" and start voting for results. It's a pragmatic, almost cold-blooded approach to politics that seems to be resonating.
Trump, on the other hand, is leaning into his role as a disruptor. He’s proposed cutting the federal budget by $163 billion for the 2026 fiscal year. He’s also focused heavily on foreign policy, like the recent actions in Venezuela. But the Brookings Institution points out a massive disconnect: 66% of Americans care most about the economy and health care, but only 16% think Trump is spending enough time on those domestic issues.
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What to Watch Next
The real "lead" will be determined by three things over the next few months.
First, the January 30th government funding deadline. If we hit another shutdown—which would be the second major one in a year—the public's patience with the GOP-controlled Congress will likely evaporate. Second, the 2026 State of the Union. This will be Trump’s chance to reset the narrative and try to win back those independents he’s lost.
Lastly, watch Harris’s travel schedule. If she starts spending more time in swing districts and less time in deep-blue cities on her book tour, it’s a clear sign she’s gearing up for a major surrogate role in the midterms. She’s already called for an "aggressive nationwide mobilization," and that’s not something you do just to sell books.
How to track the shift:
- Check the "Generic Congressional Ballot" polls every month; a lead larger than 5% for Democrats usually signals a "wave" election.
- Keep an eye on inflation data (CPI); if it doesn't drop by summer, Trump’s approval will likely stay in the mid-30s.
- Watch special elections in districts like Georgia's 14th or Texas's 18th for early clues on voter turnout.
The question of who is in the lead trump or harris isn't about a scoreboard anymore. It’s about who can convince the American public they have a better plan for the cost of living. Right now, Trump has the power, but Harris and the Democrats have the momentum.