Honestly, if you’re looking for a single name to pin on a "Winner" badge right now, you’re gonna be disappointed. It’s January 2026. We are smack in the middle of a weird, transitional year where the 2024 dust hasn't quite settled, yet the 2028 engines are already starting to hum.
People keep asking: who is in the lead in presidential race? But the answer depends entirely on whether you’re looking at the ghost of the last election or the shadows of the next one.
Right now, Donald Trump is back in the White House, entering the second year of his second term. But if you look at the polling data coming out of early 2026, the "lead" he enjoyed during the 2024 cycle is looking pretty shaky.
The Current Standing: Trump’s Waning Momentum
According to recent data from Brookings and Chatham House, the honeymoon phase—if there ever was one—is officially over. Trump’s job approval rating has taken a hit, averaging around 43% as of late 2025. Some polls, like a recent Gallup survey, even saw it dip as low as 36%.
Why the slide? It’s basically the economy. Even though he won on a platform of fixing prices, about 47% of voters now blame the current administration for persistent inflation, while only 22% are still pointing the finger at Joe Biden.
It’s a classic political reversal. In 2024, Trump had a massive edge on the economy. Now? Democrats actually lead Republicans by 5 points (40% to 35%) when voters are asked who they trust to handle their bank accounts. Among Hispanics—a group that swung hard for Trump in '24—the Democrats have clawed back a 15-point lead.
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So, is he "in the lead"? If the race is about public sentiment for the current occupant, the numbers say he’s losing ground.
The 2028 Shadow Race: Who’s Actually Leading the Pack?
Since Trump can’t run again (22nd Amendment, remember?), the real question of who is in the lead in presidential race shifts to the 2028 hopefuls. This is where things get spicy.
On the Republican side, JD Vance is the clear frontrunner for the "heir apparent" slot. He’s already acting as the party's chief fundraiser for the 2026 midterms. But he’s not alone.
On the Democratic side, it’s a total free-for-all. Kamala Harris is currently on a swing-state book tour, which is basically code for "I’m still here." But she’s facing massive pressure from the "Governor Tier."
The Memoir Primary
Keep an eye on February 2026. Two heavy hitters are dropping books:
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- Gavin Newsom (California)
- Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania)
In the world of politics, a memoir is basically a 300-page "Please Vote For Me" flyer. Shapiro is looking particularly strong; a Quinnipiac poll from late 2025 showed him with a 60% job approval in Pennsylvania, a must-win state.
Then there’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. She’s been making moves, recently touting a poll that showed her leading JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 matchup. It’s early. Like, "pre-game warmups" early. But the "lead" right now is a split between Vance's institutional power and the rising popularity of Democratic governors like Shapiro and Moore.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Lead"
We tend to look at national polls, but those are kinda useless two years out from a midterm. The real "lead" is currently measured in independent voters.
Gallup just dropped a bombshell: 45% of Americans now identify as Independents. That’s a record high.
- Republicans: 27%
- Democrats: 27%
- Independents: 45%
This means no one is actually in the lead. Both parties are hemorrhaging loyalists. The "lead" belongs to whoever can stop the bleeding.
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The 2026 Midterm Factor
You can’t talk about the presidential lead without looking at the House and Senate races happening this November. This is the "pre-season" for 2028.
In Texas, we’re seeing a massive showdown. A January 15, 2026, Emerson poll shows James Talarico leading Jasmine Crockett by 9 points for the Democratic Senate nomination. On the GOP side, Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are locked in a death match, both hovering around 26-27%.
If Democrats flip the House in 2026—which the Cook Political Report currently suggests is a "Lean Democrat" possibility—the narrative of who is in the lead for the White House will shift instantly toward the left.
Practical Next Steps for Following the Race
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at "who would you vote for today" polls. They don't mean much yet. Instead, track these three things:
- Fundraising Totals: Watch the Q1 2026 FEC filings. JD Vance and Gavin Newsom are the ones to beat here.
- Generic Ballot Polling: This tells you which party is leading. Right now, Democrats have a roughly 4.5-point edge for the midterms.
- The "Vibe" Shift: Watch how many Republicans start distancing themselves from the administration's tariff policies. If that number grows, Trump's influence—and by extension, Vance's lead—is in trouble.
Keep your eyes on the Governors. While DC bickers, names like Wes Moore and Gretchen Whitmer are building "results-based" resumes that could easily leapfrog the Washington crowd by the time the 2027 primaries roll around.