If you’re looking for a horse race or a "who is in the lead for president 2025" primary chart, you might be a year late to the party.
The race is over.
Donald Trump didn't just win the 2024 election; he fundamentally shifted the map. As we sit here in January 2026, he isn't "leading" a campaign—he’s governing from the Oval Office. He secured 312 electoral votes to Kamala Harris’s 226, effectively sweeping all seven major battleground states. It was a decisive night that left pollsters scratching their heads and the Democratic Party in a state of deep soul-searching that's still happening today.
Honestly, the "lead" shifted for good back in November 2024. While the popular vote was tighter—Trump took 49.8% to Harris's 48.3%—the Electoral College wasn't particularly close.
The Current State of the Trump Presidency
Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, the conversation has moved from "who is in the lead" to "what is the approval rating." That's the real metric of leadership in 2025.
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Numbers haven't stayed in the honeymoon phase. According to Gallup and recent CBS News data, President Trump’s approval rating has hovered around 41% for much of late 2025. By December, some polls even dipped to 36%. It’s a polarizing time.
You’ve got a massive split. Republicans are still largely on board—we're talking 85% to 90% support within the party—while Democrats are almost universally opposed. Independents? They’re the ones moving the needle, and right now, they're feeling the weight of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and various tariff discussions that have dominated the 119th Congress.
Key Events Defining the 2025-2026 Landscape
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): Launched early in 2025, this initiative—initially spearheaded by Elon Musk—has been trying to take a chainsaw to federal spending. It’s been messy.
- Foreign Policy Shifts: The administration’s "Operation Absolute Resolve" in Venezuela earlier this month resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro. This has polarized the public; some see it as a bold restoration of security, while others fear long-term entanglement.
- Economic Tug-of-War: Trump has pushed for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates and achieved "Most Favored Nation" drug pricing deals with 14 major pharmaceutical companies. These are populist wins, but they're balanced against market volatility caused by new trade tariffs.
Who is Leading for President 2025 in the Public Eye?
While Trump is the incumbent, "leading" is also a matter of perception. When people ask who is in the lead for president 2025, they’re often really asking about influence.
Is Trump in the lead? Legally and executive-wise, yes. But the 2028 shadow campaign is already starting to flicker in the background. Names like JD Vance, the sitting Vice President, are naturally at the top of the list for the GOP's future. On the Democratic side, the field is wide open. People are looking at governors who stayed out of the 2024 fray, wondering if a fresh face is what the party needs to counter the current administration's momentum.
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The lead isn't just a number. It's the ability to pass legislation. With Republicans holding a trifecta—control of the White House, Senate, and House—Trump has a "lead" in power that most presidents only dream of. However, slim majorities in the House mean that even a few defections can stall his agenda.
Why the Polls Look Different Now
Polls in 2025 don't look like election polls. They look like "voter regret" or "voter validation" surveys.
Chatham House recently noted that Trump's popularity began a steady decline almost immediately after the high of the election. Why? Because governing is harder than campaigning. When you’re "leading" for president, you’re selling a dream. When you're the president, you're selling the reality of 10% tariffs and immigration crackdowns.
People are feeling it in their wallets. Some are happy about the aggressive stance on trade; others are watching the price of imported goods creep up. That’s the "lead" that matters: the lead on the economic narrative.
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Actionable Insights for Following the 2025 Political Cycle
Stop looking for "election leads" and start looking at these indicators instead:
- The 119th Congress Voting Records: This tells you who actually has the power to stop or start the President’s agenda.
- Special Election Results: Keep an eye on any House seats that open up. These are the "canaries in the coal mine" for 2026 midterms.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): If inflation stays quiet, Trump’s lead in popularity will likely stabilize. If it spikes, expect his approval to tank regardless of his foreign policy wins.
The race for 2025 was decided in 2024. Donald Trump is the president. He holds the lead, the office, and the direction of the country. Whether he keeps that "lead" in the hearts of the American people is a story that's still being written every single day in the halls of the White House.
Stay updated by following the official White House briefings and cross-referencing them with independent economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Don't rely on a single poll; the average is where the truth usually hides.