If you haven't checked the news since 2024, the map of Syria will look like a total hallucination. The Assad dynasty is gone. After fifty years of holding the country in a vertical grip, Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia in December 2024. Now, it's early 2026, and the question of who is in control in Syria isn't just about one guy in a palace in Damascus anymore.
Honestly, the situation is a messy, evolving patchwork.
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The man sitting in the presidential chair—at least the "transitional" one—is Ahmed al-Sharaa. You might know him by his old nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. He used to lead Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group that the world once universally labeled as terrorists. But things change fast in the Middle East. Sharaa has spent the last year swapping his military fatigues for high-end suits and trying to convince the West he’s a statesman, not a jihadist.
The New Management in Damascus
Damascus isn't the same city it was two years ago. The Ba'athist posters are down. Statues of Hafez al-Assad have been smashed to bits or melted. Today, the Transitional Government led by Sharaa controls the "backbone" of the country. This includes the capital, the major highway arteries, and big cities like Hama and Aleppo.
But "control" is a strong word.
While Sharaa is the face of the nation, his authority is a bit like a new CEO trying to run a company where the regional managers still have their own private security teams. He’s been busy. Just this week, in January 2026, his forces moved into towns like Deir Hafer and Maskana in northern Syria. This happened right after the Kurdish-led forces decided to pull out to avoid a massive firefight.
He’s playing a delicate game. On one hand, he’s issuing decrees—like the one on January 16—that finally grant citizenship and language rights to Syrian Kurds. It's a huge deal. On the other hand, his "Syrian National Army" (not to be confused with the old one) is still struggling to absorb all the various rebel factions that helped him topple Assad.
Who are the main players right now?
- The Transitional Government (HTS-led): They hold the most land and the keys to the ministries. They've been de-listed as terrorists by the US and UK recently, which opened the door for Sharaa's upcoming visit to Berlin to meet Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
- The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Mostly Kurdish, backed by the U.S. for years. They still hold the northeast (the "breadbasket" and oil fields), but they’re losing ground west of the Euphrates.
- The Turkish-backed National Army: They sit in a "buffer zone" along the northern border. They're technically allies with the new government but mostly take orders from Ankara.
- Israel: This is the wildcard. Since the collapse of the old regime, the IDF has moved into parts of southern Syria to create a "security zone," much to Sharaa's public fury.
The Struggle for the North
Right now, the hottest spot on the map is the territory east of Aleppo. It’s a game of musical chairs. As of January 17, 2026, Syrian government troops have been riding motorcycles and driving convoys into areas previously held by the SDF.
Why is this happening? Basically, the SDF is consolidating. They're pulling back to the eastern side of the Euphrates River. They’re trying to protect the oil fields—like Safyan and Al-Thawra—though the Damascus government just claimed they’ve seized several of those, too. It’s tense. There have been "misunderstandings" where soldiers on both sides have been killed because one side moved in before the other finished leaving.
It’s a fragile transition. One day there’s a peace deal, the next there’s shelling.
Is it actually a "Country" yet?
If you walked through the markets in Idlib, you’d pay for your bread in Turkish Lira. In Damascus, you’re still using the Syrian Pound. This "two-currency" system is a headache for the new administration. Sharaa hasn't even released a national budget yet. He’s running the place on emergency measures and what’s left of the state treasury—which wasn't much after the Assads left.
The economy is basically a collection of "fiefdoms."
You've got different rules depending on whose checkpoint you're crossing. It’s better than the total war of 2015, sure, but it’s not exactly a Swiss clock. International sanctions were eased to help with the recovery, but the "ordinary" Syrian is still feeling the pinch of 100%+ inflation.
What about the minorities?
This is the big question for the world. The Alawites (Assad's sect) and the Druze are terrified. There were some nasty reprisal killings in the coastal areas back in March 2025. Sharaa keeps promising "inclusiveness," but when your government is built on the bones of an Islamist insurgency, words only go so far. He did put a Christian and a Druze in his cabinet, but critics say they're just for show.
What happens next?
Syria is at a crossroads. Sharaa is heading to Germany soon to talk about deportations and aid. It’s a surreal shift in diplomacy.
If you're looking for stability, watch three things:
- The SDF Integration: If the Kurdish forces actually merge into the national army by the end of 2026, the risk of a new civil war drops significantly.
- The Border with Israel: If Sharaa can't negotiate a withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south, he looks weak to his own base.
- The Census: There are no elections planned for 4 or 5 years. The government says they need a census first because millions of refugees are still abroad. Until people vote, this is a "government by decree."
Actionable Insights for Following the Situation:
- Monitor the Euphrates Line: Any movement of the Transitional Government forces to the eastern bank of the Euphrates is a sign of a potential major conflict with the U.S.-backed SDF.
- Watch the Berlin Visit: The outcome of Sharaa’s talks in Germany will signal whether the EU is ready to fully legitimize the new regime.
- Track the "Salvation" Currency: If the government moves to replace the Turkish Lira with a new national currency, it's a sign they're finally gaining real administrative control.
The "Syrian Civil War" as we knew it is over, but the battle for who actually runs the post-Assad state is just entering its second year. It's a country being rebuilt in real-time, one motorcycle convoy and one decree at a time.
To stay updated on the shifting frontlines, you should regularly consult the live "Control of Terrain" maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which remains the most reliable source for daily territorial changes in the region.