Honestly, the NFL playoffs usually feel like a foregone conclusion. For years, we basically just waited to see which flavor of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady would be hoisting the trophy in February. But 2026? It’s different. The script has been shredded.
If you're asking who is going to win the Super Bowl this year, you aren't looking at the usual suspects. The Kansas City Chiefs were eliminated weeks ago. The Philadelphia Eagles, who entered the year as defending champions, just got bounced in the Wild Card round by a San Francisco 49ers team that is basically held together by medical tape and vibes.
Right now, the road to Santa Clara runs through Seattle and Buffalo.
The Seattle Seahawks are the Team Nobody Can Stop
It sounds weird to say, doesn't it? Sam Darnold is the quarterback of the number one seed in the NFC.
But it’s real. Seattle finished the regular season 14-3, and they didn't just stumble into it. Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a nightmare. They allowed exactly 13 points over their final two regular-season games. They aren't just winning; they are erasing people.
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Vegas currently has the Seahawks as the betting favorites at roughly +270 to +300. It makes sense. They have home-field advantage through the playoffs, and the "12s" are notoriously loud. Plus, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is playing like he's from another planet. He led the league in receiving yards this year and is currently a dark horse for Super Bowl MVP at +1800 if they make it.
The only thing that should scare Seattle fans is the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams are the five-seed, but don't let that fool you. They are the "team from hell" that no one wants to see. Matthew Stafford is playing some of the best football of his career—he's actually the betting favorite for NFL MVP at -140. They split the season series with Seattle, and honestly, the Rams probably should have won both games if they hadn't blown a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter of their second meeting.
The AFC is Josh Allen’s to Lose
Over in the AFC, the power dynamic has shifted entirely. With Mahomes out of the picture, the door is wide open for Josh Allen to finally get his ring.
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The Bills are currently sitting at +550 to win it all. They just smacked the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card round, and Allen looked unstoppable. He’s got the best postseason TD-to-INT ratio of any quarterback this millennium.
The Top AFC Contenders
- Denver Broncos (+700): Bo Nix and that defense have been the surprise of the year. They secured the #1 seed in the AFC, but there are still questions about whether Nix can handle the pressure of a deep January run.
- New England Patriots (+600): Drake Maye is the real deal. Mike Vrabel has this team playing old-school, smash-mouth football that wins in the winter. They just dismantled the Chargers 16-3.
- Houston Texans (+850): C.J. Stroud is calm. The defense is elite. They just destroyed the Steelers, and they have that "team of destiny" feel to them.
What Most People Get Wrong About Super Bowl LX
People love to look at the seeds. "The Broncos are the #1 seed, so they'll win the AFC."
Not so fast.
Playoff experience matters more than almost anything when the lights get this bright. That is why the Rams (+320) and the Bills (+550) are such dangerous bets. Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen have been here. They don't blink. Drake Maye and Bo Nix are incredibly talented, but we haven't seen them in a divisional-round shootout yet.
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There is also the "Home Team" curse to consider. Super Bowl LX is being played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. The 49ers are still in the hunt, but they are +1900 underdogs for a reason. They are beat up. Brock Purdy is back, but the consistency isn't there. If you're betting on a "home game" narrative, you're probably going to lose your shirt.
The Final Verdict: Who is going to win the Super Bowl?
If you're looking for the safest bet, it’s the Seattle Seahawks. They have the defense, the home-field advantage, and a balanced offense that doesn't rely on Sam Darnold being a superhero every play.
However, keep an eye on the Houston Texans. Their odds jumped from +1200 to +850 after last weekend. They are getting hot at the exact right time, and C.J. Stroud has shown he can win on the road.
Actionable Next Steps for Fans and Bettors:
- Monitor the Injury Reports: The 49ers and Rams are both dealing with lingering O-line issues. If those guys aren't 100%, their high-flying offenses will stall against Seattle’s pass rush.
- Look at the Live Odds: Betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are showing Seattle with a 23.8% probability of winning. If those odds dip after a slow start in the divisional round, that's your window.
- Watch the Weather: If the Bills have to travel to Denver for the AFC Championship, the run game becomes everything. James Cook (+8000 for MVP) is a massive value play in a cold-weather scenario.
The divisional round kicks off this Saturday with the Bills facing the Broncos and the 49ers heading to Seattle. Everything changes after those first whistles.