The NFL postseason is basically a high-stakes car crash that nobody can look away from. Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the road to Santa Clara is littered with the "what-ifs" of teams like the Philadelphia Eagles—the defending champs who just got bounced in the Wild Card round. If you're looking for a safe bet, honestly, you’re in the wrong sport.
But we have data. We have the bracket. And we have the sheer, unadulterated chaos of the Divisional Round.
The question of who is going to win the super bowl 2026 isn't just about who has the best quarterback anymore. It’s about who is actually left standing. Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium on February 8 is shaping up to be a collision between a rejuvenated West Coast powerhouse and an AFC young gun who finally stopped playing polite.
The NFC Juggernaut: Why the Seattle Seahawks are the Team to Beat
The Seattle Seahawks are currently sitting in the driver’s seat. They locked up the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, and Mike Macdonald has turned that defense into a nightmare. They aren't just winning; they are suffocating people. They allowed 13 points total over their last two regular-season games. That’s not a stat; it’s a warning.
Sam Darnold has basically completed the greatest career redemption arc in modern sports history. He’s efficient. He’s protected. Most importantly, he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL in receiving yards this year.
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Seattle has the "12s" and home-field advantage until they (potentially) fly down to California for the big one. Betting markets like DraftKings have them as the firm favorite at +270. But there's a catch. There is always a catch.
The Rams Problem
The Los Angeles Rams are the zombie team that won’t die. They just scraped past the Panthers 34-31. Matthew Stafford is still slinging it at an elite level, leading the league with over 4,700 passing yards. If they meet Seattle in the NFC Championship, all bets are off. They split the season series, and the Rams have that "we've been here before" energy from their 2022 run.
The AFC Power Struggle: Drake Maye vs. The Field
Over in the AFC, the vibe is completely different. The era of Patrick Mahomes dominating every single January is on a temporary hiatus while he recovers from that knee injury. In his place, a new hierarchy has emerged.
The New England Patriots are... back? It feels weird to say, but Drake Maye has turned into an absolute monster in Josh McDaniels’ system. He’s the MVP frontrunner for a reason. They just dismantled the Chargers 16-3 in a game that felt even more lopsided than the score suggests.
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- New England Patriots (+600): They have the most efficient offense in the league (0.13 EPA per play).
- Denver Broncos (+700): The No. 1 seed in the AFC. Their defense leads the NFL in net yards per pass allowed.
- Houston Texans (+850): DeMeco Ryans has built a defensive wall. They are on a nine-game winning streak.
- Buffalo Bills (+650): Josh Allen is the reigning MVP. He’s the most dangerous man in the tournament when he’s "on," but the Bills' defense is currently a sieve against the run.
The Texans are the dark horse here. After starting 0-3, they’ve gone 12-2. They just smacked the Steelers 30-6 to close out Wild Card weekend. If C.J. Stroud stays hot, Houston could easily be the team representing the AFC in Super Bowl LX.
Who is going to win the super bowl 2026?
If you want the expert take, look at the trenches. The Los Angeles Rams and the Denver Broncos are the only two teams in the playoff field that rank in the top 10 in pass-rush win rate, run-stop win rate, pass-block win rate, and run-block win rate. That is usually the "secret sauce" for a Lombardi trophy.
However, the Seahawks at +270 feel like the destiny pick. They are healthy, which is a miracle this late in the year. While the 49ers are struggling with injuries to stars like George Kittle (out for the playoffs) and a banged-up Christian McCaffrey, Seattle is humming.
Current Betting Odds Snapshot (January 16, 2026)
- Seattle Seahawks: +270
- Los Angeles Rams: +320
- New England Patriots: +600
- Buffalo Bills: +650
- Denver Broncos: +700
- Houston Texans: +850
The smart money is on a Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots matchup. It’s a battle of the No. 1 defense versus the most efficient offense. It’s also a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, which... well, Seattle fans probably don't want to talk about the goal line right now.
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Actionable Strategy for Following the Playoffs
To accurately track who is going to win the super bowl 2026 as the rounds progress, keep your eyes on these three specific metrics:
- Injury Reports: Watch the Wednesday/Thursday practice designations. If the Patriots lose an offensive tackle or the Seahawks lose a key secondary piece, the odds will shift 50-100 points instantly.
- Red Zone Efficiency: In the playoffs, field goals lose games. Teams like Houston have been settling for three too often; that won't fly against Josh Allen.
- Weather Factors: The Divisional round in Denver and New England is going to be brutal. Dome teams or "finesse" teams usually crumble when the wind-chill hits single digits.
Keep a close eye on the Texans' defensive front this weekend against the Patriots. If they can rattle Drake Maye early, the entire AFC bracket opens up for a team like Buffalo or Denver to stroll into the Super Bowl.
Next Steps for NFL Fans:
Check the official NFL injury report for the Divisional Round matchups before placing any futures bets. Specifically, monitor the status of Sam Darnold’s oblique injury in Seattle and the Patriots' offensive line depth, as these will be the deciding factors for the Conference Championship seeding.