If you spent any time on social media or watching the nightly news in late 2024, you probably felt like you were watching two different movies at the same time. One side was screaming about a "Blue Wave" powered by reproductive rights, and the other was certain of a "Red Wall" built on the price of eggs and gas.
Honestly, the "who is going to win the 2024 election" debate was less about polling and more about which version of reality you decided to live in. But now that the dust has settled and the literal and metaphorical lawn signs have been put away, the answer isn't a prediction anymore—it’s history.
Donald Trump didn't just win; he pulled off a comeback that political science textbooks will be picking apart for the next thirty years. He cleared the 270 electoral vote hurdle with room to spare, ending the night with 312 electoral votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226.
The Numbers That Actually Mattered
It wasn't just a squeaker in the Electoral College either. For the first time since George W. Bush in 2004, a Republican candidate actually won the national popular vote. Trump pulled in roughly 77.3 million votes, while Harris garnered about 75 million.
People kept waiting for a specific "October Surprise" to shift the needle. Remember the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania? Or Joe Biden stepping aside for Harris in July? Those were massive, world-shifting events, yet the underlying current of the electorate remained stubbornly fixed on one thing: the economy.
🔗 Read more: BBC World News Anchors: Why These Faces Still Command Global Trust
Why the "Blue Wall" Crumbled
For decades, Democrats relied on Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They called it the Blue Wall. If you hold those, you win.
Except this time, the wall didn't just crack; it basically disintegrated. Trump swept all seven major swing states:
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Georgia
- North Carolina
- Arizona
- Nevada
The Nevada win was particularly wild because a Republican hadn't won there in twenty years. So, how did it happen?
It turns out that the "who is going to win the 2024 election" question was answered by a massive shift in demographic loyalty. According to data from the Pew Research Center, Trump made staggering gains with Hispanic voters. In 2020, Biden won Hispanics by 25 points. In 2024, that lead for the Democrats shrank to almost nothing. In places like the Rio Grande Valley in Texas and Miami-Dade in Florida, the shift was so aggressive it looked like a typo on the screen.
What the Experts Missed
Most pollsters were terrified of another 2016 situation where they underestimated Trump’s support. They spent four years "fixing" their models. They accounted for "shy" Trump voters. They adjusted for education levels.
Yet, they still sorta missed the mark on the composition of the vote.
They expected women to carry Harris to victory in a landslide, fueled by the Dobbs decision. While Harris did win the female vote, the margin was essentially flat compared to 2020. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among men—especially young men and Black and Latino men—surged.
He went on edgy "bro podcasts" like Joe Rogan’s and talked for three hours at a time. It worked. He reached people who don't watch CNN or read the New York Times. These "unreliable" voters actually showed up.
The Incumbency Curse
There’s a broader trend here that nobody talks about enough. Post-COVID, almost every incumbent party in a major global democracy has lost ground. From the UK to France to Japan, voters have been in a "throw the bums out" mood because of global inflation.
Harris was stuck. She was the sitting Vice President. She couldn't easily distance herself from the Biden administration's record on high prices, even as the stock market hit record highs and unemployment stayed low. To a guy in Erie, Pennsylvania, seeing his grocery bill double mattered more than the GDP growth rate.
The Aftermath and Your Next Steps
Trump was sworn in on January 20, 2025, becoming only the second president in U.S. history to serve non-consecutive terms—the first was Grover Cleveland back in the 1890s.
So, what does this actually mean for you today? The election wasn't just a TV show; it has real-world consequences that are hitting the books right now.
- Watch the Tariffs: The administration has been vocal about aggressive trade stances. If you're in manufacturing or retail, price fluctuations are the new normal.
- Tax Code Changes: With Republicans holding the "trifecta" (the White House, the Senate, and a narrow House majority), expect significant shifts in the tax landscape as the 2017 tax cuts face renewal.
- Immigration Policy: The promised "mass deportations" are a massive logistical and legal undertaking that will dominate the news cycle and potentially affect labor markets in construction and agriculture.
The most important takeaway? Stop trusting the "vibes" on your social media feed. The 2024 election proved that the country is moving in directions that the loudest voices online often fail to see.
Keep an eye on the Federal Register and official policy announcements rather than campaign-style rhetoric. The "who is going to win the 2024 election" era is over; we are now firmly in the "how does the new administration govern" era. Your best move is to audit your financial exposure to potential trade shifts and stay informed through diverse, primary-source news outlets.