Politics right now feels like a never-ending tug-of-war where the rope is frayed and everyone’s hands are sweaty. It’s early 2026, and the dust from the 2024 election didn't just settle; it basically got kicked back up into a cloud that won't go away. If you’re looking for a simple answer on who is favored trump or harris, honestly, it depends on which room you’re standing in and which day of the week it is.
The vibe is weirdly tense. President Donald Trump is back in the Oval Office, but the honeymoon phase—if there ever was one—ended before the cherry blossoms even thought about blooming. People are frustrated. Prices are still high, and while the administration is leaning hard into immigration and trade, a lot of folks at the grocery store are wondering when the "greatness" kicks in for their bank accounts.
The Numbers Game is Brutal
Let’s get into the weeds of the data because that’s where the real story lives. As of mid-January 2026, Trump’s approval rating is hovering around 42% to 43% according to the latest AP-NORC and Brookings data. Some polls, like Gallup, have seen it dip even lower to around 36%. That’s a tough spot to be in just a year into a second term.
On the other side, you’ve got former Vice President Kamala Harris. She’s not exactly sitting at home knitting. She’s currently on a high-profile book tour, hitting places like Jackson, Mississippi, and New Orleans. She’s drawing massive crowds. When she speaks, it sounds a lot like a campaign stump speech, even if she hasn't officially said "I'm running in 2028" yet.
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But here is the kicker: in the 2024 election, Trump had a clear edge over Harris on the economy and inflation. Now? That lead has basically evaporated. Brookings recently pointed out that Democrats are now favored over Republicans by about 5 points (40% to 35%) when it comes to who voters trust to handle the economy. That is a massive shift in just 14 months.
Why the Shift is Happening
Voters are fickle, sure, but they’re also pretty consistent about what makes them mad. Right now, it’s the wallet. About 66% of Americans say the economy, inflation, or healthcare are their top concerns. Trump has been spending a lot of political capital on things like tariffs and "Project 2025" style administrative overhauls.
- The Tariff Trouble: Trump's base loves the "America First" rhetoric, but the reality of higher prices on imported goods is starting to bite.
- The Priorities Gap: Only about 16% of people think the President is spending enough time on domestic issues that actually impact their daily lives.
- The Independent Swing: This is the big one. Independents, who make up about 45% of the electorate now, have moved away from Trump by 21 points over the last year.
Kamala Harris is capitalizeing on this. In her recent speeches, she’s been calling the current administration "callous and incompetent." It’s sharp rhetoric. It’s meant to rile up the base, and it seems to be working. Among Hispanics and young adults—groups that actually trended toward Trump in '24—the momentum is swinging back toward the Democrats.
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Who Is Favored Trump or Harris Right Now?
If the election were held today, it would be a coin toss that probably rolls under the couch where nobody can see it. Trump still has a death grip on the GOP base. His approval among Republicans is still in the 80s or 90s. He has "bent the knee" of corporate leaders, as Harris put it in her Jackson speech.
However, if you look at the 2026 midterm outlook, the "favor" is leaning blue. The Cook Political Report recently shifted 18 House seats toward the Democrats. Why? Because Trump’s approval is a drag on down-ballot Republicans. If Harris can keep the "anti-Trump" coalition together—the one that Joe Biden built and she tried to maintain—she’s in a strong position.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of pundits think that because Trump won in 2024, the "realignment" of the working class to the GOP is permanent. It’s not. It was a lease, not a purchase. Voters are currently "test-driving" the Republican economy, and 72% of them are rating it as "fair or poor."
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There’s also this idea that Harris is "done" because she lost. History doesn't support that. Richard Nixon lost and came back. Ronald Reagan lost a primary and came back. Harris is using 2025 and 2026 to redefine herself outside of Biden’s shadow. She’s framing the 2026 midterms as a "critical test" for the country's future.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2026 Cycle
If you’re trying to track who actually has the upper hand, stop looking at national favorability for five minutes. It’s too noisy. Instead, keep an eye on these three specific metrics over the next six months:
- Generic Congressional Ballot: This is usually the best "weather vane" for the midterms. If Democrats stay 4-5 points ahead, they’re favored to take the House.
- Consumer Confidence Index: If this stays low, Trump’s "favored" status continues to sink, regardless of what he does on immigration.
- The "Enthusiasm" Gap: Watch the turnout in 2025 off-year elections. If Democrats keep over-performing like they did in the late '25 cycles, it’s a signal that the Harris-led resistance is more than just talk.
Politics is a game of momentum, and right now, the ball is bouncing in a very erratic way. Trump has the power of the incumbency, but Harris has the luxury of being the "alternative" at a time when people are feeling the pinch. It’s going to be a long walk to November 2026.