California is weird. Politically, it’s a giant, expensive, and often predictable machine, but every decade or so, the gears grind in a way that catches everyone off guard. Right now, as we look at who is expected to win California in the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial election, that predictability is out the window.
Gavin Newsom is hitting his term limit. He’s out. The field to replace him isn't just crowded; it’s a chaotic mix of "whiteboard" populists, law-and-order sheriffs, and Silicon Valley billionaires who think state government is just a poorly managed startup. If you think this is a cakewalk for any single Democrat, you haven't been looking at the recent polling.
The Fragmented Frontrunners: It’s Anyone’s Game
Honestly, the most recent data is a bit of a mess. An Emerson College/Inside California Politics survey from December 2025 showed a four-way statistical tie for the June 2026 primary. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco led with 13%, followed by Republican commentator Steve Hilton at 12%, and Democratic Representatives Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter at 12% and 11% respectively.
Wait. Did you catch that?
The top two spots were held by Republicans in a state where Democrats outnumber them nearly two-to-one. This happens because the Democratic vote is being sliced into tiny pieces. When you have a dozen high-profile Democrats—including State Treasurer Betty Yee, Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa—all fighting for the same 45% of the electorate, the math gets ugly.
Why Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell Are Clashing
Katie Porter is basically a brand at this point. You’ve seen the whiteboard. You've seen her grill CEOs until they sweat. She has a massive national fundraising base, which is vital because running a campaign in California costs more than some small countries' GDPs. But she’s "underwater" with some voters. Her favorability has taken a hit as opponents paint her as more of a national celebrity than a local administrator.
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Then there's Eric Swalwell. He jumped in late 2025 and immediately shook things up. He’s got that Bay Area "establishment but edgy" vibe. He’s leaning hard into his relationship with Nancy Pelosi, hoping the party machine will eventually consolidate behind him. But he carries baggage—Republicans never stop talking about the Fang Fang situation—and in a statewide race, that "noise" matters.
The Republican "Top-Two" Dream
California uses a "jungle primary." The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election.
Republicans like Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton aren't expecting to win the deep-blue state in November. Their goal is to consolidate the GOP's 25-30% of the vote while the Democrats are still busy stabbing each other in the back. If Bianco and Hilton both make it to the November ballot, California would have its first all-Republican general election for Governor in history.
That’s a long shot. But Bianco is playing the "tough on crime" card, which is resonating even in places like San Francisco and LA where people are tired of retail theft and open-air drug use. He’s got the endorsements of law enforcement unions across the state. Hilton, meanwhile, is the "ideas guy" from Fox News who wants to disrupt the Sacramento bureaucracy.
What Really Matters: Affordability and the "Prop 50" Factor
If you want to know who is expected to win California, stop looking at party labels and start looking at the price of eggs. And rent. And electricity.
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Voters are frustrated. A January 2026 poll by the Independent Voter Project found that "None of the Above" actually beat most of the Democratic field among independent voters. People are looking for someone—anyone—who can fix the housing crisis.
There’s also the shadow of Proposition 50. This was the voter-approved redistricting measure that redrew the maps for 2026. It’s created a lot of uncertainty. Candidates are now campaigning in districts that look very different than they did two years ago.
The "Sleeper" Candidates
Don't count out the money. Tom Steyer and Rick Caruso are lurking. Caruso almost won the LA Mayor's race by spending $100 million of his own cash. If he jumps in, he can bypass the fundraising grind and go straight to the airwaves.
Then there’s Xavier Becerra. He’s been in DC as the Secretary of Health and Human Services, but his roots are deep in California. He’s got the "statesman" look, though some see him as a bit too tied to the Biden-Harris era, which might be a liability if the national mood stays sour.
Who Actually Has the Edge?
If the primary were held today, the results would be a coin flip. But we aren't at the primary yet. History tells us that California Democrats eventually "coalesce." The labor unions, the environmental groups, and the tech donors usually pick a horse by March.
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Currently, Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter are the most likely Democrats to survive the June primary. Between the two, Swalwell seems to be racking up more "institutional" support (the folks who run the party), while Porter has the "people" power and the small-dollar donors.
On the GOP side, Chad Bianco is the clear favorite to take one of those top two spots if the Democrats stay this divided. He’s got a "it's time for a change" message that is cutting through the noise in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire.
How to Track the Winner Moving Forward
The race is going to get nasty by Spring. Here is what you should watch for to see who is actually gaining ground:
- The Endorsement War: Watch for the California Labor Federation. If they pick a single Democrat, that candidate gets an immediate, massive ground game.
- The "None of the Above" Sentiment: If polling for "Undecided" stays above 30% into April, expect a late-entry celebrity or billionaire to jump in and try to "save" the state.
- The Crime Narrative: If high-profile crimes continue to dominate the news in LA and SF, Bianco’s numbers will climb. If the focus shifts back to reproductive rights or climate change, the Democrats will recover.
Check the California Secretary of State’s website for the final certified list of candidates on March 26. That’s when the "real" race starts. Until then, it’s all just expensive posturing in a state that is increasingly hard to predict.