Honestly, if you’re looking for a simple scoreboard right now, you’re going to be a bit disappointed. It is January 2026. We are officially in the "middle" of a term, which is usually when everyone’s hair is on fire and the polls look like a tangled mess of Christmas lights.
Usually, people ask "who is currently winning the presidential polls" because they want to know who will be in the White House in 2029. But we aren’t there yet. Right now, the "winning" isn't about a head-to-head matchup between two candidates. It’s a brutal, daily referendum on Donald Trump’s second term and a frantic scramble among Democrats to figure out who their savior is going to be.
The numbers are, frankly, pretty wild.
The Approval Slump: Is the Honeymoon Over?
If you want to know who’s winning, you have to look at the incumbent. Historically, the second year of a presidency is where the "heavy lifting" happens—and usually where the approval ratings go to die. According to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin, President Trump entered 2026 with a net approval rating of roughly -13.
That’s not great.
For context, he started 2025 in a fairly strong spot, about 6 points "above water" (meaning more people liked him than didn't). But over the last twelve months, that has cratered. A recent CNN/SSRS poll found his approval languishing at 39%. To put that in perspective:
- Barack Obama was in the high 50s at this point.
- George W. Bush was in the mid 50s.
- Ronald Reagan was at 49%.
- Richard Nixon is basically the only one who had a lower score (29%) at the end of his fifth year in office.
Why the slide? It’s not just one thing. It’s the economy, specifically inflation. Even though gas prices have dipped, a Marist poll shows that only 37% of Americans approve of his handling of the economy. People are frustrated. They’re "impatient for action," as the analysts at Mackenzie Investments put it. When the grocery bill stays high, the person in the Oval Office gets the blame. Period.
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The Independent "Escape"
The biggest story in the polls right now isn't the fight between Republicans and Democrats. It’s the mass exodus to the middle. Gallup recently reported a record high of 45% of U.S. adults identifying as political independents.
Basically, people are tired of both "teams."
But here’s the kicker for the current administration: those independents are souring on the GOP. At the start of 2025, Trump was roughly even with independents. By December, he was 43 points underwater with them. That is a staggering 42-point drop in a single year.
If you're trying to figure out who is currently winning the presidential polls in terms of momentum, the answer is "none of the above." The Democratic-leaning independents increased from 17% to 20% over the last year, while Republican-leaning independents dropped from 18% to 15%. It’s a subtle shift, but in a country split down the middle, it’s an earthquake.
The 2026 Midterm Shadow
We can't talk about presidential "winning" without looking at the 2026 midterms. This fall is the real test. Right now, the "generic ballot" (the poll that asks if you'd prefer a Democrat or Republican in Congress) is leaning toward the Democrats.
Historical trends are a nightmare for the party in power. In nine of the last ten midterms, the President’s party lost at least one chamber of Congress. With Republicans holding a slim 219-213 majority in the House and a 53-45 lead in the Senate, the math is tight.
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Democrats need a net gain of just four seats to flip the Senate. They are already targeting seats in Georgia and Michigan—states Trump won in 2024. Meanwhile, Republicans are eyeing Maine, where Susan Collins is always a factor, and trying to protect their own turf.
What the Numbers Say Right Now
- President Trump's Job Approval: 36% - 39% (Gallup/CNN).
- Disapproval on Inflation: -28.8 net approval.
- Independent Lean: 47% of Americans now lean Democratic or identify as Democrats, vs 42% for Republicans.
- The "Failure" Metric: 60% of Americans in a recent CNN poll described the first year of the current term as a "failure."
Who is the Democratic Frontrunner?
Since there isn't an official "presidential poll" for 2028 that carries much weight yet, we look at the internal moves. It’s a bit of a "Cold War" on the left.
Vice President Kamala Harris is obviously the name at the top of the list, but the polls show she carries a lot of the same "incumbency baggage" as the previous administration. Then you have the "Governors' Club." People like Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer are constantly being polled in hypothetical matchups.
While it's too early for official head-to-head numbers to mean anything, the energy in the polls is shifting toward fresh faces. Even down-ballot races are showing this. In Texas, for instance, a recent Emerson College poll shows State Rep. James Talarico building real momentum for a Senate run, leading among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters. This kind of "new blood" enthusiasm is what Democrats are banking on to translate into a presidential win down the road.
The Global Context: It's Not Just Us
Interestingly, if you look at "presidential polls" globally, the mood is similar. People are grumpy.
- In Portugal, the 2026 race is wide open, with André Ventura leading but a satirical candidate "Vieira" (who says he wants to be "more absurd than Donald Duck Trump") actually gaining traction.
- In Costa Rica, Laura Fernández is leading the 2026 polls with nearly 40%.
- In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni just "won" another term, though his opponent Bobi Wine is screaming fraud.
The common thread? Voters everywhere are feeling squeezed by the cost of living and are looking for anyone who promises to fix the "system," even if those promises are a bit wild.
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What You Should Actually Watch
If you want to know who is winning the presidential polls over the next few months, ignore the national "horse race" numbers for a bit. They are noisy and mostly reflect how people felt about their last trip to the grocery store.
Instead, watch these three things:
- Special Election Swings: Since November 2024, there has been a roughly 15% swing toward Democrats in special elections. If that holds, the GOP is in for a long night in November.
- The "Independent" Lean: If that 45% of independent voters continues to tilt toward the Democrats, it doesn't matter how high Trump’s support is among his base; the math simply won't work for him.
- Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is often a better "presidential poll" than anything else. If people feel like the economy is getting better, Trump's approval will bounce back. If not, it’s a anchor.
Moving Forward: Your Action Plan
Don't get buried in the daily "Poll of the Day" on Twitter (or X, or whatever we’re calling it this week). Most of those are designed to get clicks, not provide insight.
- Check the Averages: Sites like RealClearPolling or 538 are better because they smooth out the "outlier" polls that might just be a fluke.
- Look at the Sample: Always check if a poll is of "Adults," "Registered Voters," or "Likely Voters." Likely voters are the only ones that actually tell you what might happen on election day.
- Watch the "Undecideds": In a polarized world, the 10% of people who say "I don't know" are the only ones who actually decide who wins.
The "winner" right now is whoever can convince that 45% of independents that they have a plan for the 2027 budget. Everything else is just noise.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the March 2026 primary schedules. That’s when the hypothetical candidates for the next cycle start becoming very real, and the polling shifts from "Do you like the President?" to "Who do you want next?"