If you’re looking for a stage with two podiums, a ticking clock, and two people shouting over each other right now, you won't find it. Honestly, there isn't a presidential debate happening today. We are in January 2026. Donald Trump is currently serving his second term in the White House. The next time we see a "traditional" presidential debate will be in 2028 when the race to succeed him kicks into high gear.
But that doesn't mean nobody is "winning" the argument.
Politics doesn't just stop because it isn't an election year. In fact, the "debate" has just shifted. It moved from a TV studio in Atlanta or Philadelphia to the floor of Congress and the court of public opinion. If you want to know who is currently winning the presidential debate—or rather, the national debate over the presidency—the answer is messy. It's about approval ratings, midterms, and a very aggressive foreign policy that has people divided.
The Approval Gap: Is the Incumbent Winning?
Right now, Donald Trump’s "win" from 2024 is facing some serious friction. When he took office in early 2025, he had a bit of a honeymoon phase. His approval was over 50%. People were hopeful about the economy. But skip ahead to today, January 2026, and the numbers have taken a hit.
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According to recent polling from the Marist Poll and Brookings, Trump's approval has dipped to around 39%. That’s a tough spot to be in heading into a midterm year.
The "debate" on the ground is mostly about the cost of living. People are frustrated. Even though the administration has tried to blame previous leadership, voters usually credit or blame whoever is currently sitting behind the Resolute Desk. For many independents, the "winner" of the current policy debate is actually the opposition. Democrats currently hold a 14-point lead on the generic 2026 congressional ballot.
Foreign Policy: Greenland, Venezuela, and the "Too Far" Factor
Usually, presidential debates are about taxes or healthcare. Lately, the national conversation has been dominated by some pretty wild headlines. We’re talking about the potential seizure of Greenland and military intervention in Venezuela.
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Basically, the public is split.
- Venezuela: A recent AP-NORC poll found that while some people like the "tough" stance on drug trafficking, about 56% of U.S. adults think the administration has "gone too far" with military interventions.
- Greenland: This one sounds like a movie plot, but it’s a real talking point. Most Americans (and definitely the Danes) aren't exactly on board with taking over the island "the hard way."
- The MAGA Base: Even with the dip in general polls, Trump still has a lock on his core supporters. To them, he's winning every single day by "disrupting" the old way of doing things.
The 2028 Shadow Debate
While there is no official debate, the people who want to be president in 2028 are already "debating" via press releases and state-level policy.
Gavin Newsom is a name that keeps coming up. He recently did an interview with CBS News stating he’ll consider a White House run after the 2026 midterms. He’s positioning himself as the primary foil to the current administration. Then you have Vice President J.D. Vance, who is essentially the "winner" of the internal Republican debate right now as the presumed heir to the MAGA torch.
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Is there a winner? If "winning" means having the loudest voice, it’s still Trump. If "winning" means winning over the American public, the data suggests the tide is turning toward the Democrats as we approach the November 2026 midterms.
What to Watch Next
Since there isn't a live debate on TV tonight, the real "score" will be kept in the following areas over the next few months:
- The Special Elections: Keep an eye on congressional vacancies. These are the "mini-debates" that tell us if the 2024 momentum is still alive.
- Economic Indicators: If inflation continues to cool, the administration's "winning" streak on the economy might return. If not, the generic ballot lead for Democrats will likely grow.
- The 2026 Midterm Primaries: This is where the real debate happens for Republicans. It’s a test of whether the MAGA brand is still the only way to win a primary.
If you’re looking to stay ahead of the curve, keep a close watch on the Cook Political Report and Ipsos polling throughout the spring. These will be the clearest indicators of who is actually winning the hearts and minds of voters before the 2028 cycle officially begins.
Actionable Insights for Following the 2026 Cycle:
- Track the Generic Ballot: This is the best proxy for "who is winning" when there aren't individual candidates debating yet.
- Ignore the Noise, Watch the Independents: Trump’s approval among independents has dropped to roughly 29%. This group usually decides the actual winner of the next big debate.
- Monitor Gubernatorial Races: Figures like Newsom are using state-level wins to build a "debate" platform for the 2028 national stage.