It is January 2026, and the American political machine is already eating itself. If you think it's too early to ask who is ahead in the presidential race, you haven't been paying attention to the "shadow primary" currently unfolding in the halls of D.C. and the statehouses of Sacramento and Tallahassee.
Donald Trump is currently in the second year of his second term. Because he's constitutionally barred from running again, the "race" everyone is actually tracking isn't a reelection bid—it’s the chaotic, high-stakes scramble to succeed him in 2028.
But there’s a massive catch. Before we get to the next occupant of the Oval Office, we have the 2026 midterms. These elections are the ultimate "pre-game" for the presidency. Right now, the data is messy. It’s contradictory. Honestly, it’s a bit of a nightmare for anyone who likes clean narratives.
The Trump Approval Paradox
You can't talk about who’s winning without looking at the incumbent. Trump’s numbers are, in a word, stagnant. According to AP-NORC polling from mid-January 2026, about 4 in 10 U.S. adults approve of his performance. That’s roughly 40%. It’s basically the same number he had in March 2025.
He has a floor that won't drop, but a ceiling that won't break.
The economy is the sticking point. Only 37% of Americans approve of his handling of the financial state of the country. Even worse for the GOP? About 60% of people say he’s actually hurt the cost of living rather than helping it. In a world where eggs and rent are the primary voters, that’s a flashing red light for anyone wearing a red jersey.
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Who Is Ahead in the Presidential Race for 2028?
Since Trump is out of the 2028 picture, the spotlight has shifted to Vice President JD Vance. If the primary were held today, Vance would likely steamroll the competition on the Republican side.
A Granite State Poll from late 2025 showed Vance with a massive 51% support among likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. To put that in perspective, the next closest person was Nikki Haley at a measly 9%. Marco Rubio and Tulsi Gabbard were even further back, hovering around 5% and 8% respectively.
Vance has the "heir apparent" energy. He’s managed to bridge the gap between the old-school hawks and the "New Right" populists.
On the Democratic side? It's a total dogfight. There is no clear leader, just a bunch of very ambitious people with very large bank accounts.
- Gavin Newsom: He’s the fundraising king. He’s got nearly $4 million in a leadership PAC and just won a major redistricting battle in California that could hand Democrats five extra House seats.
- Kamala Harris: The former VP is still in the mix, launching a new super PAC called "Fight for the People."
- Pete Buttigieg: Interestingly, "Mayor Pete" actually leads some early New Hampshire polls with 19%, narrowly beating Newsom’s 15%.
Basically, the Democrats are split between the "establishment" wing (Harris/Buttigieg) and the "progressive/governor" wing (Newsom/Pritzker).
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The Independent Surge
Here is the stat that should scare both parties: Gallup recently reported that a record-high 45% of U.S. adults now identify as political independents.
People are tired.
This shift has actually given Democrats a slight edge in "party leaning" for the first time in years. While the raw numbers for registered Democrats and Republicans are tied at 27% each, more of those independents are leaning left (20%) than right (15%).
The 2026 Midterm Factor
Everything hinges on November 3, 2026.
Republicans currently hold a razor-thin majority in the House (218 to 213) and a 53-45 lead in the Senate. If Democrats flip the House—which many analysts, including those at Narrative Strategies, suggest is likely—Trump's agenda hits a brick wall.
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A Democratic House means investigations. It means subpoenas. It means the 2028 race starts with two years of televised hearings that could reshape who is considered "ahead."
What You Should Actually Watch
Forget the national horse race polls for a second. If you want to know who is actually winning, watch these three things:
- The "Affordability" Narrative: Whoever convinces the public they can lower the price of a gallon of milk is the person who will lead the 2028 polls by Christmas.
- Gavin Newsom’s Travel Schedule: If he’s in Iowa or New Hampshire "helping other candidates," he’s actually running for President.
- JD Vance’s Distance from Trump: Watch how much Vance tries to carve out his own identity versus just echoing the President. The "successor" role is a tightrope. Lean too far in, and you inherit the baggage; lean too far away, and you lose the base.
Practical Steps for Following the Race
Don't get sucked into "outlier" polls that show 10-point leads. Look at the RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight averages, but more importantly, watch the Special Election results throughout 2026. Those small, "boring" races in places like Ohio or Arizona are the only real-world data we have on how voters are actually feeling when they walk into a booth.
Keep an eye on the FEC filings coming out this spring. Money doesn't always buy the presidency, but it’s a great indicator of which "shadow candidates" have the backing of the donor class.
The race isn't a sprint; it's a four-year grind that just entered its most deceptive phase.