Honestly, the term "early voting" usually brings to mind those long lines in November. But right now, in January 2026, the race is already happening. It’s messy, it’s localized, and if you’re looking for a simple scoreboard, you’re going to be disappointed. We’re currently in the shadow of the 2026 primary cycle, and in states like North Carolina, the first mail-in ballots for the March primaries are literally hitting mailboxes this week.
Who's winning? It depends on which "win" you care about. If you mean raw turnout, Democrats are seeing a weirdly high level of engagement for an off-year. If you mean structural control, Republicans are currently dominating the "how" and "where" of the voting process itself.
The North Carolina Early Voting Bellwether
North Carolina is basically the laboratory for 2026. On January 12, county boards officially started mailing out absentee ballots for the March 3rd primary. This is the earliest data point we have.
What’s fascinating—and kinda tense—is the shift in who’s running the show. For the first time since 2016, Republicans hold a majority on the State Board of Elections and most county boards. They’ve been aggressively tweaking the early voting schedules. In some spots, like WCU in the western mountains, early voting sites on campus were scrapped. In others, they've cut back on Sunday "Souls to the Polls" events.
Despite these hurdles, the early requests for ballots show a Democratic base that isn't as demoralized as the GOP hoped after the 2024 results. Historically, Democrats lean harder on early and mail-in voting. Republicans have traditionally preferred the Election Day "surge," though Donald Trump has been trying to flip that script, telling his supporters to "bank" their votes early to avoid any last-minute "shenanigans."
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Generic Ballots vs. Ground Reality
If you look at the big national polls—the stuff from Decision Desk HQ or RealClearPolitics—Democrats are actually sitting on a lead of about 4 to 5 points in the "generic ballot." Basically, if the election for Congress were today, more people say they’d pick a Democrat.
- Average Generic Lead: Democrats +4.8%
- Independent Identification: At an all-time high of 45% (Gallup)
- The Independent Lean: 47% lean Democrat vs. 42% lean Republican
But here is the catch. Early voting in a primary isn't the same as early voting in a general. Right now, we are seeing "party enthusiasm" more than "swing voter intent."
In states like New Jersey and Virginia, where 2025 off-year elections just wrapped up, we saw Democrats over-perform in suburban areas. That energy seems to be carrying over into the early registration numbers for 2026. Experts like Steve Adubato have noted that while the numbers look good for the left, the GOP's grip on the House—they only need to lose two districts to lose the majority—is the real prize.
Retirements and the "Open Seat" Problem
Who is ahead in early voting isn't just about the people casting ballots; it's about the people on the ballots. As of mid-January, we've got a retirement crisis.
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25 Republicans and 21 Democrats in the House have already said "I'm out." When a seat is open, early voting trends usually get way more volatile. For example, in New Hampshire, Chris Pappas is leaving his House seat to run for Senate. That makes his district a massive target. In Michigan, John James is eyeing the governor’s mansion. These vacancies are forcing early donors and "early-bird" voters to rethink their loyalty.
The Independent Surge
Gallup dropped a bombshell this week: 45% of Americans now call themselves Independents. That is huge. It’s a record high.
If you’re trying to figure out who is ahead, you have to look at where these Independents are leaning. In 2024, they swung Republican. By the start of 2026? They’ve shifted back. Gallup shows a 3-point decline in Republican-leaning Independents and a 3-point bump for the Democrats. This doesn't mean Democrats are "winning," but it means the "anti-incumbent" vibe is currently working against the GOP-led Congress.
Tactical Changes to Watch
The "rules" for early voting are changing in real-time. This is what's actually moving the needle:
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- Voter ID Mandates: North Carolina just banned digital student IDs for voting. This is a direct hit to the youth vote.
- The "SAVE" Database: The Trump administration is cross-referencing voter data with federal non-citizen records. Republicans say it’s for "integrity." Democrats say it’s "intimidation."
- Site Consolidation: In places like Madison County, GOP boards are expanding one main site but closing smaller ones. It’s a trade-off that usually hurts rural voters who have to drive further.
What You Should Do Now
Checking who is ahead in early voting is fun for the "horse race" aspect, but it’s mostly noise unless you take a few specific steps to make sure your own vote actually counts in this new 2026 landscape.
First, check your registration status immediately. With the purge of 74,000 voters in North Carolina and similar "cleanup" efforts in Texas and Ohio, you can't assume you're still on the rolls. Second, look up your primary date. While most are in June, North Carolina and others are coming up fast in March. Third, verify your ID. If your state just changed its laws (like the digital ID ban), your old method of voting might not work anymore.
The 2026 midterms won't be won on Election Day. They are being won right now by whichever party manages to navigate the new, more restrictive early voting maps most effectively.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Visit Vote.org or your Secretary of State's website to confirm you haven't been moved to an "inactive" list.
- If you plan on voting by mail, request your ballot at least 45 days before your state's primary to account for potential USPS delays.
- Review your state's specific 2026 Voter ID requirements, as many "grace periods" for older forms of ID expired at the start of the year.