Finding out who actually runs ISIS these days feels like trying to nail jelly to a wall. Honestly, it’s a mess of aliases, "ghost" leaders, and names that sound almost identical to the ones that came before. But on August 3, 2023, the group finally put a name to the shadow: Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
He’s the fifth man to take the title of "Caliph" since the group rose to global infamy.
Most people didn't even realize the fourth leader was gone until the announcement of Abu Hafs's ascension. That’s because the group's communications have become increasingly insular and paranoid. They have to be. When your predecessors keep ending up in the crosshairs of drone strikes or blowing themselves up during raids in northwestern Syria, you tend to keep your head down. Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi stepped into a role that is, by all accounts, a death sentence.
The Mystery of the Fifth Caliph
So, who is he? If you’re looking for a birth certificate or a LinkedIn profile, you’re out of luck. The name "Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi" is a nom de guerre. It’s a branding tool. The "al-Qurashi" part is non-negotiable for them; it claims lineage from the Prophet Muhammad's tribe, which is a core ideological requirement for anyone claiming the caliphate.
He took over after Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi was killed. Even the details of that death are contested. Turkey’s intelligence agency, MIT, claimed they neutralized him in a special operation in April 2023. ISIS, however, waited months to confirm the death, eventually blaming the rival group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib for the hit.
Abu Hafs is a "black box" leader. We know he was appointed by the Shura Council, the group’s high-level consultative body. Beyond that, the intelligence community is still piecing together his real identity. Is he an Iraqi veteran of the insurgency? Likely. Most of the top tier still is. Does he have a background in the religious police or the military wing? Probably both.
Why Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi Matters Right Now
You might think ISIS is a spent force, a relic of the 2014–2017 era. That’s a dangerous assumption. While they don't hold a massive "state" anymore, they’ve pivoted. They are a decentralized franchise now.
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Abu Hafs inherited an organization that is currently operating as a "shadow caliphate." They aren't trying to hold cities right now because holding cities makes you a target for the U.S. Air Force. Instead, they are focused on survival, prison breaks, and rural insurgencies.
His leadership is defined by the "Global South" pivot. While the central leadership hides in the badlands between Syria and Iraq, the real muscle is moving to Africa. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and branches in the Sahel are arguably more active than the "core" ever was in the last two years. Abu Hafs has to manage these unruly provinces while staying alive in a Syrian safehouse.
A History of Short Reigns
The turnover rate at the top of ISIS is staggering. Let’s look at the timeline. It’s brutal.
- Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: The big name. He lasted years, from the start until 2019.
- Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi: Killed in a 2022 U.S. raid.
- Abu al-Hasan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi: Killed in late 2022 by the Free Syrian Army.
- Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi: Killed in 2023.
Now we have Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
The pattern here is clear: the shelf life of an ISIS leader is shrinking. This creates a weird dynamic for the rank-and-file. How do you stay loyal to a ghost? The group uses "bay’ah" (oaths of allegiance) to bridge this gap. Shortly after Abu Hafs was announced, the propaganda wings flooded Telegram with photos of masked fighters in Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Mozambique all pledging their lives to this man they’ve never seen. It’s a psychological trick to show the world the "state" still exists, even if the "head" is constantly being chopped off.
The Strategy Under the New Leadership
Expert analysts like Aaron Zelin or the folks over at the SITE Intelligence Group have noted that the "Abu Hafs era" so far has been characterized by a "low and slow" approach. They aren't swinging for the fences with massive coordinated attacks in Europe every month.
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Instead, they are playing the long game.
They are waiting for "security vacuums." Look at what happened in parts of Africa after various coups and the withdrawal of French forces. That’s where Abu Hafs sees opportunity. His job isn't to be a charismatic orator like Baghdadi. His job is to be a CEO of a crumbling but stubborn insurgency. He oversees the "Breaking the Walls" campaign—a perpetual effort to bust their fighters out of prisons like al-Hol and Ghwayran in Syria.
If he can liberate thousands of veteran fighters, the map of the Middle East could look very different, very quickly.
Debunking the "Defeated" Narrative
There’s a common misconception that ISIS is just "gone." You see the news and think, "Oh, we got 'em."
The truth? Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi commands an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters across Iraq and Syria alone. That doesn't even count the thousands of fighters in the Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) in Afghanistan or the massive contingents in Africa.
The biggest challenge he faces isn't actually the U.S. military. It’s irrelevance and competition. Groups like Al-Qaeda are still around, and in places like Afghanistan, the Taliban—their sworn enemies—are actively hunting them. Abu Hafs has to prove to the global jihadi movement that his brand is still the "true" one.
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What to Watch For Next
Monitoring Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi isn't just about waiting for a strike report. It’s about watching the media.
If the Islamic State starts releasing high-production videos of him speaking, it means they’ve regained enough confidence in their security to let him step into the light. If they stay silent and only release text-based statements through the Al-Naba newsletter, it means the pressure from regional intelligence services is crushing them.
Security experts are currently focused on three things regarding his tenure:
- The "Far Enemy" attacks: Will he authorize a major strike in the West to "inaugurate" his leadership?
- The African Expansion: How much control does he actually have over the wealthy and powerful branches in Nigeria and the Sahel?
- Succession Planning: At this point, ISIS likely has the sixth and seventh leaders already picked out. They've turned succession into a bureaucratic process.
The Real-World Impact
For the average person, this might feel like distant geopolitics. But for people living in the regions where these cells operate, the name Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi represents a continuation of tax extortion, kidnappings, and local instability. He is the figurehead for a system that thrives on chaos.
As long as there is instability in the Middle East—specifically in the camps in northeast Syria—leaders like Abu Hafs will always have a pool of recruits. The "caliphate" is currently a concept, not a country, and that makes it much harder to kill.
To stay informed on this evolving situation, it’s best to follow reliable, non-sensationalist trackers. Look for updates from the UN Security Council’s monitoring team reports or the Middle East Institute. They provide the granular detail that avoids the "breaking news" hysteria while keeping the threat level in perspective.
Actionable Insights for Following the Situation:
- Monitor Al-Naba: This is the group's weekly newsletter. It’s where they announce policy changes and major operations. You don't need to read the primary source; follow academic researchers on social media who translate and analyze it.
- Watch the "Wilayats": Pay attention to the "provinces" (Wilayats). If the Central Africa or West Africa provinces stop mentioning the leader’s name, it’s a sign of internal fracture.
- Check Prison Security Reports: The viability of Abu Hafs's leadership depends on his ability to replenish his ranks. Keep an eye on reports regarding the SDF-run prisons in Syria; any major breach there is a direct win for his strategic goals.
The story of Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi is still being written. He is currently a man without a face, leading a movement without a capital, yet his influence remains a primary concern for global security. Understanding that he is a cog in a much larger, highly resilient machine is the first step in seeing the "war on terror" for what it has become: a permanent game of high-stakes whack-a-mole.