Honestly, if you’re looking at the headlines right now, it feels like the 2024 election never actually ended. We’re sitting here in January 2026, and the question of who in the lead trump or harris is still dominating the water cooler talk, even though one is in the Oval Office and the other is on a massive book tour.
Politics in this country doesn't sleep. Ever.
Right now, Donald Trump is grappling with the reality of a second year in his second term. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has basically become the "Shadow President" for the Democratic base, pulling in massive crowds at stops like Jackson, Mississippi, to promote her memoir, 107 Days. It's a weird dynamic. Usually, the loser of a presidential race fades into a lucrative consulting gig or a quiet life of painting. Not Harris. She’s leaning into the "transactional" nature of politics, telling her supporters that it’s okay to have high expectations and even higher demands.
The Approval Rating Reality Check
If we’re talking about raw numbers, the "lead" is a slippery thing to measure. Donald Trump won in 2024 with about 49.8% of the popular vote—a solid victory by modern standards. But since then? It’s been a bit of a slide.
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According to recent data from Chatham House and various January 2026 polls, Trump’s approval has dipped into the low 40s, hovering around 43% on a good day. Some surveys, like those from Gallup and the AP-NORC Center, show it as low as 36%. That’s a tough place to be when you’re trying to push through a massive legislative agenda involving things like "Schedule F" civil service reforms and aggressive tariff hikes.
What’s interesting is the "why." People aren't necessarily jumping ship because of his foreign policy—his moves in Venezuela and the talk about Greenland actually have pockets of support—but because of the grocery store. Prices are still high. Tariffs, which were a cornerstone of the 2024 campaign, are being blamed by a huge chunk of the public (about 75% in a recent Brookings report) for keeping inflation sticky.
Where Harris Is Gaining Ground
So, does a dip for Trump mean a lead for Harris? In the eyes of the Democratic base, absolutely.
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Harris isn't just selling books. She’s effectively campaigning for the 2026 midterms without having her name on a single ballot. Her events are packed. In Jackson, she was handed the key to the city and had an entire day named after her. That doesn't happen to someone the public has "moved on" from.
- Voter Sentiment: Independents are the ones to watch. Trump’s support among self-identified independents dropped by a staggering 21 points over the last year.
- The Economic Shift: In 2024, Trump had the edge on the economy. Now? Democrats have a 5-point lead in "who would handle the economy better" according to recent YouGov polling.
- The Youth and Latino Vote: The "realignment" many predicted in 2024—where minority voters would permanently move toward the GOP—looks a bit shaky. Trump’s approval among Latino voters has slid back down to the 28-34% range, a far cry from his 2024 performance.
The 2026 Midterm Shadow
The real reason everyone is obsessed with who in the lead trump or harris is the upcoming midterm election. We are less than a year away. If the current trends hold, the GOP's "trifecta" (control of the White House, House, and Senate) is in serious jeopardy.
History is a brutal teacher here. Unpopular presidents almost always lose the House in their first midterm. If Trump becomes a "lame duck" by 2027, the second half of his term will look very different from the first. He’s currently raining "hellfire" on the federal bureaucracy, as some commentators put it, but a Democratic House would turn that firehose off pretty quickly with oversight hearings and budget freezes.
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The "Shadow Primary"
While Trump is the President, the "lead" in the Democratic party is a fierce debate. Harris is the frontrunner for 2028 by default, but she’s not the only one in the room. You’ve got figures like Helena Moreno, the newly inaugurated Mayor of New Orleans (whom Harris actually swore in this month), and Brandon Johnson in Chicago making waves.
Harris is smart. She’s positioning herself as the defender of democracy, showing up at MLK breakfasts and interfaith gatherings. She’s staying visible without being "the person in charge" who has to take the blame for the price of eggs. It’s a classic political maneuver.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch Next
If you’re trying to figure out who is actually winning the narrative right now, don't look at the national polls. They’re too broad. Instead, keep an eye on these three specific indicators over the next few months:
- Special Election Results: Keep a close eye on any special elections for House seats. These are the "canaries in the coal mine" for the 2026 midterms.
- The February State of the Union: Trump is scheduled to give his address on February 24th. Watch the public reaction to his "America First" funding plans. If the "Peace Through Strength" rhetoric doesn't land, it's a sign his base is fraying.
- The "Schedule F" Implementation: This is the plan to turn tens of thousands of federal jobs into "at-will" positions. If the courts block this or if the public backlash grows, it could be the definitive turning point for Trump’s second-term momentum.
The lead in American politics is never permanent. It’s a pendulum. Right now, Trump has the power, but Harris has the momentum of the "discontented." Whether that translates into a Democratic takeover of Congress in November 2026 is the $64,000 question.
For now, stay skeptical of any headline that claims a "total collapse" or a "permanent lead." The numbers are shifting under our feet every single week. Focus on the policy shifts—like the $100,000 fee for H-1B visas or the new travel bans—as those are the things that will actually move the needle for voters who are tired of the rhetoric and just want to see results.