If you’re looking for a simple answer to who Beijing is rooting for in the 2024 U.S. election, you're gonna be disappointed. There isn’t a "Team Trump" or "Team Harris" pennant hanging in the halls of the Zhongnanhai. Honestly, the vibe in Chinese leadership circles is more like someone choosing between a headache and a stomachache. Both hurt. It's just a matter of which one you can live with.
The common myth is that China must want one candidate over the other. But the reality is that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) sees the U.S. as a declining power that has collectively decided China is the "big bad." Whether it's a Democrat or a Republican in the Oval Office, the underlying strategy of containment—keeping China's tech and military in a box—is basically a consensus in Washington now.
Who Does China Want to Be President: The Stability vs. Chaos Debate
When Chinese analysts talk about Kamala Harris, the word that keeps popping up is predictability. She represents the status quo. To Beijing, a Harris administration is basically Biden 2.0. You know what you're getting: targeted tech bans, a strong emphasis on alliances (like NATO and AUKUS), and a lot of talk about human rights.
It’s annoying for them. Very annoying. But it’s stable.
Then there’s Donald Trump.
Trump is the ultimate wildcard. On one hand, he’s the guy who started the trade war and isn't afraid to slap a 60% tariff on everything from toys to car parts. That sounds like a nightmare for a Chinese economy that’s already struggling with a massive property crisis and slow growth.
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The "Trump Makes China Great Again" Theory
Wait, there’s a twist.
On Chinese social media, some people jokingly call Trump Jianguo, which translates to "Build the Country." The joke is that his "America First" policy actually helps China. How? By alienating U.S. allies.
If Trump pulls back from NATO or tells Taiwan they need to "pay for protection," he’s essentially poking holes in the very umbrella that keeps China in check. To some strategic thinkers in Beijing, four years of American isolationism is a golden opportunity for China to step in as the new global leader.
But it's a high-stakes gamble. High risk, high reward.
The Taiwan Factor
This is the big one. The "red line" that actually keeps world leaders up at night.
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The Biden-Harris approach has been pretty clear: they've moved away from "strategic ambiguity" and toward a more explicit "we will defend Taiwan" stance. China hates this. They see it as a direct violation of the One China policy.
Trump, meanwhile, talks about Taiwan like a business deal. He’s complained that Taiwan "took about 100% of our chip business" and should pay the U.S. for defense. For Beijing, this transactional style is fascinating. It suggests that, for the right price or the right trade deal, Trump might be less willing to go to war over a small island off the Chinese coast.
Why Both Options Sorta Suck for Beijing
Let’s be real for a second. Neither candidate is offering China a "win."
- Economic Pain: Both sides are committed to "de-risking" or "decoupling." Whether it's Harris’s "small yard, high fence" approach to tech or Trump’s massive blanket tariffs, China’s export-heavy economy is going to take hits.
- Tech War: The U.S. has effectively blocked China from buying the high-end chips needed for AI. Neither Harris nor Trump is likely to reverse those export controls.
- The "Containment" Reality: The U.S. military is shifting its focus to the Pacific. That’s not changing regardless of who wins.
What the Experts are Actually Saying
Professor Yan Xuetong from Tsinghua University, one of China's most influential foreign policy voices, has argued that the U.S.-China relationship is in a "downward spiral" that won't be stopped by a change in personnel. He basically thinks the structural competition is too deep now.
Others, like Jia Qingguo from Peking University, have noted that while Harris is predictable, her ability to unite allies against China makes her a more "effective" adversary. Trump is chaotic, which is bad for business, but his tendency to annoy Europe and Japan is a strategic gift to the CCP.
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The Final Verdict
So, who does China want to be president?
They want a United States that is too distracted by its own internal politics to bother them. They want a president who is so busy with domestic culture wars or legal battles that they can't effectively run a coherent foreign policy.
In a weird way, the more divided the U.S. looks, the better Beijing feels. They use the chaos of American elections as propaganda to show their own people that "democracy is messy and broken."
Actionable Insights for the Rest of Us
If you’re watching this play out, here’s what to keep an eye on:
- Watch the Tariffs: If Trump gains momentum, expect China to start stockpiling key resources or devaluing the Yuan to offset potential 60% taxes.
- Watch the Alliances: If Harris remains the frontrunner, look for China to try and "wedge" the U.S. and Europe, perhaps by offering trade concessions to Germany or France to make them less likely to follow Washington's lead.
- The South China Sea: Regardless of the winner, this remains the most likely spot for an accidental "oops" that turns into a conflict.
Ultimately, Beijing isn't waiting for a savior. They are preparing for a long, cold competition with whoever ends up in the White House. They aren't looking for a friend; they're just looking for the type of opponent they can handle.
For more context on how this impacts global markets, you should look into how the "China+1" strategy is changing where your electronics are actually made.