North Carolina has this reputation for being the ultimate tease in American politics. Every four years, pundits descend on Raleigh and Charlotte, swearing this is the cycle the state finally flips for good. It didn't happen in 2016, and honestly, if you were watching the returns on election night, you saw the same drama play out again. So, who did North Carolina vote for in 2020?
Donald Trump won.
It wasn't a landslide, though. Not even close. Trump took the state's 15 electoral votes with 49.9% of the vote compared to Joe Biden’s 48.6%. That’s a margin of about 74,481 votes out of more than 5.4 million cast. In a state this big, that's basically a rounding error. But in the world of the Electoral College, a win is a win, regardless of how thin the ice is.
The Urban-Rural Divide That Defined the Map
If you look at a county-by-county map of North Carolina from 2020, it looks like a sea of red with tiny islands of deep blue. It’s a classic story. The "Blue Dots" are the places you’d expect: Wake County (Raleigh), Mecklenburg County (Charlotte), Durham, and Buncombe (Asheville).
Biden actually did what he was supposed to do in the cities. He crushed it there. In Mecklenburg, he took 66% of the vote. In Wake, it was 62%. These are the engines of North Carolina’s growth, packed with tech workers, academics, and a diversifying population. But North Carolina is unique because its rural population is massive. Unlike a state like Illinois where Chicago dictates everything, North Carolina has dozens of mid-sized counties and rural stretches where Trump’s "Make America Great Again" message didn't just resonate—it dominated.
Take a look at places like Graham County or Avery County. We're talking about 70% to 80% margins for Trump. When you add up all those smaller rural wins, they act like a massive weighted blanket that smothers the high turnout in the Research Triangle. It's a tug-of-war where the rope barely moves, but the tension is incredible.
The Suburban Shift That Almost Changed Everything
There was a lot of chatter leading up to 2020 about the "Suburban Revolt." The idea was that college-educated voters in the "doughnut counties"—the areas surrounding Charlotte and Raleigh—were fed up with the chaos of the Trump administration.
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And honestly? The data shows that actually happened. In Cabarrus and Union counties, which sit right outside Charlotte, Trump won, but his margins shrank compared to 2016. In 2016, Trump won Union County by about 30 points. In 2020, that lead dropped to about 25 points. It’s a slow bleed. If you’re the GOP, that’s a flashing yellow light. If you’re a Democrat, it’s a sign that your "Long Game" might eventually pay off, even if 2020 wasn't the year.
Why the Polls Got It Wrong (Again)
You might remember the polling averages before the election. Most high-quality polls, including those from the New York Times/Siena College, had Biden up by one or two points right before Election Day. Some even had him up by three or four.
So, what happened?
Basically, the "Shy Trump Voter" theory—or perhaps more accurately, the "non-response bias"—was real in the Tar Heel State. People who support Trump are often less likely to pick up the phone for a pollster. Also, the North Carolina GOP has a legendary ground game. They focus on "low-propensity" voters—people who don't always vote but show up when they feel the stakes are existential.
The 2020 results proved that North Carolina isn't quite the "purple" state people want it to be. It's more of a "light burgundy." It tilts right, and it takes a perfect storm—like Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign—to knock it off that axis. Even with the pandemic, economic uncertainty, and a massive spending advantage for the Democrats, the state stayed in the Republican column.
The Ticket-Splitting Phenomenon
Here is where things get really weird. North Carolinians are famous for splitting their tickets. They’ll vote for a Republican President and a Democratic Governor in the same breath.
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While Trump was winning the state at the top of the ticket, Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was busy winning his re-election by 4.5 points. Think about that. Thousands of people walked into a voting booth, checked the box for Donald Trump, and then immediately checked the box for Roy Cooper.
Why?
- Cooper’s Brand: He’s seen as a steady, moderate hand.
- The Challenger: Dan Forest, the Republican candidate for Governor, took some hardline stances on COVID-19 mask mandates that didn't sit well with suburbanites.
- History: North Carolina has a long history of electing Democratic governors even when they go red for President. It’s a "check and balance" mentality that seems baked into the local political culture.
The Impact of Absentee and Early Voting
2020 was the "Year of the Mail-in Ballot" because of COVID-19. North Carolina saw a massive surge in early voting. By the time Election Day actually rolled around, over 4.5 million people had already cast their ballots. That's about 82% of the total vote.
Democrats dominated the early mail-in period. For weeks, it looked like Biden had a massive lead. But then came the "Red Wave" on Election Day. Republicans showed up in person in huge numbers on November 3rd. Because North Carolina counts its mail-in ballots and early votes quickly, we actually had a decent idea of the trend on election night, but it took days to officially call the state because the margin was so tight and mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day were still trickling in.
Voter Demographics: The Changing Face of NC
North Carolina is getting younger and more diverse, but maybe not as fast as some people think. The Black vote remains the backbone of the Democratic Party in the state, particularly in the "Black Belt" counties in the northeast. Biden needed massive turnout there, and while he got it, it wasn't enough to offset the rural white vote in the west.
Interestingly, Trump made small but significant gains with Hispanic voters in North Carolina, mirroring a national trend. It wasn't a huge shift, but when you're dealing with a 1.3% margin, every little bit counts.
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What Does This Mean for the Future?
If you're trying to figure out where North Carolina is heading, don't just look at the 2020 results in a vacuum. Look at the trajectory. The state is growing, and that growth is concentrated in areas that lean blue. However, the GOP’s hold on the rural areas is hardening.
North Carolina is effectively a stalemate. It’s a state where both sides can legitimately claim they have a path to victory, but the Republicans currently have the "home-field advantage" of a deeply loyal rural base.
Key Takeaways from the 2020 North Carolina Election:
- Trump won by 1.34 percentage points.
- Voter turnout was historic, with over 75% of registered voters participating.
- Ticket-splitting is alive and well, as evidenced by Roy Cooper’s victory.
- Suburban shifts are happening, but they haven't yet reached a tipping point to flip the state.
If you're looking to dive deeper into the data or prepare for the next election cycle, here is what you should do next:
1. Check your registration status. North Carolina has specific deadlines for registering and requesting absentee ballots. Don't wait until October.
2. Research the "Council of State" races. In NC, we vote for everything from Labor Commissioner to Superintendent of Public Instruction. These "down-ballot" races often have a bigger impact on your daily life than the President.
3. Follow the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE). They provide the most accurate, non-partisan data on turnout and results. If you want the raw numbers without the media spin, that’s your source.
The 2020 election wasn't an outlier; it was a confirmation. North Carolina is a battleground, but for now, the "Old North State" remains just a shade of red.