It is a scene straight out of a thriller. A group of men, mostly elderly, process into a room covered in some of the world's most famous art. They take an oath of absolute secrecy. The doors are locked from the inside. Outside, thousands of people stand in the rain, staring at a single metal chimney, waiting for a puff of smoke.
But behind the mystery, there is a very strict set of rules. You might think the Catholic Church operates like a democracy, or maybe like a corporate board. It’s neither. Honestly, the process of who chooses the next pope is one of the most exclusive and legally dense events on the planet.
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It’s not the billion-plus lay Catholics. It’s not the local priests. It isn't even every high-ranking bishop.
The Inner Circle: The College of Cardinals
The short answer is the College of Cardinals. But that's a bit of a generalization. Not every cardinal gets a vote.
Basically, there is a "cutoff" age. If a cardinal has already celebrated their 80th birthday before the day the papacy becomes vacant (either through the death or resignation of the current Pope), they are out of the running as an elector. They can still participate in the preliminary discussions—those "pre-game" meetings called General Congregations—but they don't get to step inside the Sistine Chapel when the real voting starts.
These men are often called the "Princes of the Church," but their primary job description is actually "Papal Elector."
Why 80 is the Magic Number
Pope Paul VI set this rule back in 1970. Before that, you could be 95 and still voting. He figured the Church needed people who were a bit more... let's say, physically up to the task of a grueling, high-pressure lockdown. Currently, there are around 120 to 140 eligible electors at any given time, though the "soft cap" established by various popes is usually 120.
Inside the Conclave: How It Actually Works
The word "conclave" literally means "with a key" (cum clave). They aren't kidding about the locking part. Once the Cardinal Camerlengo (the guy who runs things while there's no pope) gives the order "Extra omnes!"—which means "everyone else out"—the doors are sealed.
They stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, a sort of Vatican hotel, and they are shuttled to the Sistine Chapel daily. No phones. No newspapers. No Twitter. If a cardinal is caught with a recording device or trying to leak info, they face automatic excommunication.
The Voting Ritual
It’s not a digital tally. It is incredibly analog.
Each cardinal writes a name on a rectangular piece of paper. They try to disguise their handwriting. They fold the paper twice. Then, one by one, they walk up to the altar under Michelangelo’s Last Judgment.
They hold the ballot up and say a specific oath: "I call as my witness Christ the Lord who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected."
They place the ballot on a plate (a paten) and then slide it into a chalice.
Who Chooses the Next Pope (And Who Can They Pick?)
Here is a weird fact: technically, the cardinals could pick you.
Well, assuming you are a baptized male Catholic.
There is no law that says the Pope must be a cardinal. In the year 1378, they picked Urban VI, who wasn't a cardinal at the time. However, don't expect a repeat of that. In the modern era, the cardinals always pick one of their own. They want someone they know, someone who understands the internal politics of the Vatican, and someone who has a track record of leading a large diocese.
The Two-Thirds Rule
To win, you need a two-thirds majority. This is why conclaves can take days. If nobody gets 66% of the vote, they burn the ballots with a chemical that makes black smoke.
If they reach a decision? They use a different chemical for white smoke. Then comes the "Habemus Papam" announcement from the balcony.
The Politics You Don’t See
While the Church says the Holy Spirit is the one who chooses the next pope, there is plenty of human "discernment" going on. In the days leading up to the conclave, the cardinals meet in those General Congregations I mentioned earlier.
They talk about the state of the Church. They discuss finances, scandals, and growth in the Global South. This is where "blocs" form.
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- The Reformers vs. The Traditionalists.
- The "Bureaucrats" (those who work in the Roman Curia) vs. The "Pastors" (those who run cities like New York, Nairobi, or Manila).
It’s sort of like a political convention, but without the buttons and the TV ads. They are looking for a "Papabile"—a man who is "popeable."
What This Means for the Future
The current makeup of the College of Cardinals is vastly different than it was 20 years ago. Pope Francis has appointed a huge percentage of the current electors, often choosing men from the "peripheries" like Tonga, Laos, or the Amazon. This shifts the power away from Europe and Italy.
When you look at who chooses the next pope, you are looking at a group that is more international than ever before. This makes the outcome harder to predict. You can't just count the Italian votes anymore.
Key Takeaways for Following the Next Election:
- Watch the age: If a cardinal turns 80 during the vacancy, he still can't vote.
- The smoke is the only real info: Any "leaks" during the conclave are almost certainly fake or guesses.
- Geography matters: Watch for candidates from Africa and Asia; the electors are increasingly looking to where the Church is growing fastest.
If you want to keep track of the potential candidates, look at the leaders of the largest Catholic populations. Men like Cardinal Pietro Parolin (the Vatican's top diplomat) or Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines are names that frequently pop up in "insider" circles.
The process is designed to be slow, deliberate, and insulated from the 24-hour news cycle. It is perhaps the last place on earth where a global leader is chosen in total, forced silence.
To stay informed on the specific names currently in the College of Cardinals, you can consult the official Vatican press office list of electors, which is updated every time a cardinal turns 80. Following the "Consistory" announcements—where the Pope creates new cardinals—is the only way to see how the "electorate" is being shaped for the future.