The Sistine Chapel doors click shut with a heavy, final thud. Inside, a hundred or so men in crimson robes are cut off from the world. No phones. No internet. No outside whispers. Outside, thousands of people stare at a tiny chimney, waiting for a puff of smoke.
But who is actually in the running? Most people assume you have to be a Cardinal to get the job. Honestly, that’s not strictly true.
If you look at the rulebook, the pool of candidates is technically massive. In reality, it’s a tiny, elite circle. But the gap between what could happen and what does happen is where the real drama lives.
Who Becomes the Pope in Conclave: The Secret Eligibility List
Technically, any baptized, unmarried Catholic male on the planet can become the pope. That’s the law. Your neighbor could be the next Bishop of Rome. A random priest in a village in Peru could get the call. Even a layman—someone who isn't a priest at all—is canonically eligible.
But let’s be real. It hasn’t happened that way in centuries.
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The last time the Cardinals picked someone who wasn't one of them was in 1378. That was Urban VI, and he wasn't even a Cardinal. He was an Archbishop. If the Cardinals chose a layman today, say a Catholic college professor or a dedicated charity worker, they would have to ordain him as a deacon, then a priest, and then a bishop, all before he could officially take the throne.
The Under-80 Rule
While any "eligible" male can be elected, the people doing the electing are strictly controlled. Only Cardinals who haven't reached their 80th birthday on the day the papacy becomes vacant get a vote.
- The Voters: Usually around 120 to 135 men.
- The Candidates: Almost always from that same group of voters.
- The "Over-80s": They can still be elected! A 85-year-old Cardinal can't vote, but his younger colleagues could theoretically pick him. It’s just very, very unlikely.
Why "Papabile" Isn't a Guarantee
In the lead-up to a conclave, journalists love the word papabile. It basically means "pope-able." These are the frontrunners, the guys with the big resumes.
But there is an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave as Pope leaves it as a Cardinal."
Basically, if everyone thinks you're going to win, you probably won't. The favorites often cancel each other out in the early rounds of voting. That’s when the "compromise candidate" emerges—someone nobody was talking about on the news the night before.
Take Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II). In 1978, he was a total dark horse. Or Jorge Bergoglio (Pope Francis). While he had some votes in the previous election, he wasn't the top name on every pundit's list when he was elected in 2013.
The Two-Thirds Hurdle
To win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority. That is a high bar.
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Imagine trying to get 130 people from different cultures, speaking different languages, to agree on one leader. You have Cardinals from the "Global South"—Africa, Asia, Latin America—and the traditional European powerhouse bloc. Their priorities are often worlds apart.
- The First Day: Usually just one vote in the afternoon. It almost always fails. Black smoke.
- The Routine: Two votes in the morning, two in the afternoon.
- The Pause: If they haven't picked someone after three days, they take a break for prayer and some serious, private chatting.
They don't just vote; they deliberate. They look for specific qualities. They want someone who can handle the Vatican bureaucracy (the Curia), but they also want a "pastor" who can inspire 1.4 billion people. Sometimes those two things don't live in the same person.
The Modern Cardinal Profile
The makeup of the College of Cardinals has changed a lot lately. Under Pope Francis, the group has become much less "Euro-centric."
In the 2026 landscape, the College is more geographically diverse than it has ever been. We are seeing more Cardinals from places like Mongolia, Tonga, and remote parts of Africa. This makes predicting who becomes the pope in conclave harder than ever. You can’t just look at the Italian or German blocs anymore and call the winner.
The "vibe" of the group shifted. They are looking for someone who understands the "peripheries" of the world.
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What Happens When Someone Wins?
When a candidate finally hits that two-thirds mark, the senior Cardinal approaches him. He asks the big question: "Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?"
If he says yes, he is immediately the Pope.
He is then asked what name he wants to be called. This is a huge signal of how he intends to lead. A "Benedict" suggests tradition and scholarship. A "Francis" suggests humility and reform. A "Pius" would signal a very conservative turn.
Then, they burn the ballots. They add a chemical to make the smoke white. That’s the signal to the world.
Actionable Insights for Following the Next Conclave
If you want to watch the next papal election like a pro, stop looking at the "top ten" lists on news sites. Instead, look at these factors:
- Language Skills: The Pope is the Bishop of Rome. If a candidate doesn't speak Italian, his chances drop significantly. He needs to communicate with his local priests.
- The "Age Sweet Spot": Cardinals usually avoid very young candidates (who might reign for 30 years) and very old ones (who might be too frail). The 65-to-75 age range is the "Goldilocks zone."
- The Manager vs. The Preacher: Check if the frontrunners have experience running a large diocese (like New York, Manila, or Kinshasa) versus working in a Vatican office. Cardinals often swing between wanting a "manager" and a "spiritual father."
Keep an eye on the "silent" Cardinals—the ones who don't give many interviews but are highly respected by their peers. Those are the ones who often walk out onto the balcony.