When the heavy bronze doors of the Sistine Chapel click shut and the Master of Papal Liturgical Celebrations shouts "Extra omnes!"—everyone out—the world suddenly realizes how little we actually know about what's happening behind those frescoes. We see the smoke. We wait for the "Habemus Papam." But the actual mechanics of who becomes pope in conclave are often buried under a mountain of Dan Brown-esque myths and misunderstandings.
You’ve probably heard that only a Cardinal can be the next Pope. Honestly? That’s just not true. It’s a tradition, sure, but it isn’t the law.
The Surprising Reality of Eligibility
Technically, the pool of candidates is massive. Any baptized, unmarried Catholic male is eligible to be elected.
That’s it. That is the whole list of formal requirements according to Canon Law.
In theory, the Cardinals could walk out onto the balcony and present a high school teacher from Chicago or a monk from a remote monastery in Ireland. If that happened, and the man wasn't already a bishop, the Church would have to ordain him on the spot before he could officially take office.
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But let's be real. It hasn't happened in a long time. The last guy to pull this off was Urban VI way back in 1378. He wasn't even a Cardinal; he was an Archbishop. Since then, the "Princes of the Church" have kept the job strictly in-house.
Why the "Technical" Rules Still Matter
Even though they almost always pick one of their own, the flexibility exists for a reason. It acts as a pressure valve. If the College of Cardinals is hopelessly deadlocked between two rival factions—say, the progressives who want to double down on Pope Francis’s style and the conservatives who want to return to the era of Benedict XVI—they can look outside the room for a "compromise candidate."
The Math of Making a Pope
The voting process is brutal and repetitive. It’s not a simple "highest number wins" situation. To understand who becomes pope in conclave, you have to look at the 2/3 majority rule.
Since 2007, when Pope Benedict XVI reversed a temporary rule change by John Paul II, a candidate must secure two-thirds of the votes to win. If there are 120 Cardinals in the room, you need 80 votes.
- The First Day: Usually just one exploratory vote in the afternoon.
- The Grind: Two votes every morning, two every afternoon.
- The Breaks: If they don’t have a winner after three days, they stop. They pray. They talk. They probably complain about the food (which is notoriously basic inside the Vatican guest house, Domus Sanctae Marthae).
The "Papabile" Curse
There’s an old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal."
Basically, if the media and the bookies have spent months saying you’re the frontrunner, you’re probably doomed. Being a papabile—a "pope-able" candidate—means you have a target on your back. Other factions have months to find your flaws or gather enough votes to block you.
Take Cardinal Giuseppe Siri. He was the "certain" choice in multiple conclaves but never made it. Meanwhile, Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II) and Jorge Bergoglio (Francis) were both seen as outsiders or "dark horses" until the momentum shifted during the actual voting.
Who Really Holds the Power?
Right now, the demographic shift in the College of Cardinals is the biggest story nobody is talking about. In 2026, the College looks nothing like it did forty years ago.
It’s less European. Much less Italian.
Pope Francis has spent over a decade "stacking" the college with men from the "peripheries"—places like Tonga, Myanmar, and Ethiopia. These men aren't part of the old Roman Curia power structures. They don't necessarily care about the internal politics of the Vatican bureaucracy.
When you ask who becomes pope in conclave, the answer increasingly depends on the Global South. A Cardinal from Africa or Asia might have very different priorities—focusing on climate change, poverty, or interreligious dialogue—compared to a European Cardinal focused on secularization in the West.
The "Room of Tears" and the Aftermath
Once the 2/3 threshold is hit, the world sees the white smoke. But inside, things get intense.
The Cardinal Dean approaches the winner and asks the big question in Latin: "Acceptasne electionem de te canonice factam in Summum Pontificem?" (Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?)
If he says "Accepto," he is immediately the Pope. No inauguration needed. No waiting period. He’s the guy.
He then chooses a name—a huge signal of how he intends to rule—and is led to the "Room of Tears" (Sala delle Lacrime). It’s a tiny room off the Sistine Chapel where the new Pope often breaks down under the weight of the responsibility. He puts on the white cassock (they keep three sizes ready: small, medium, and large) and prepares to meet the world.
How to Follow the Next Election Like an Expert
If you want to know who is actually in the running, stop looking at "top 10" lists from mainstream news sites. Look at the specific alliances being formed during the "General Congregations." These are the meetings held in the days before the conclave starts.
- Watch the Dean: The Cardinal Dean often sets the tone for the discussions.
- Look for the "Grand Electors": These are influential Cardinals who might not want the job themselves but carry 10 or 15 votes with them.
- Geography is key: If an Italian hasn't been elected since 1978, the "Italian bloc" might finally be hungry enough to unite behind a single candidate like Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
Actionable Next Steps
- Check the age list: Only Cardinals under 80 can vote. If a favorite turns 80 the day before the Pope dies, they are out of the conclave.
- Monitor "Consistories": This is when the Pope creates new Cardinals. The more people Francis adds from outside Europe, the more likely the next Pope will be a non-European.
- Read the "Apostolic Constitution": If you want the raw rules, look up Universi Dominici Gregis. It's the literal rulebook for the election.
The process is designed to be slow. It’s designed to be secret. But at the end of the day, who becomes pope in conclave is decided by a mix of high-stakes diplomacy, deep-seated tradition, and what the Cardinals believe is the "breath of the Holy Spirit."
Whether you're Catholic or just a fan of political drama, there is nothing else on earth quite like it.