Honestly, trying to guess who the next pope will be is basically a fool's errand. There’s an old Roman saying that usually holds true: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal." Essentially, if everyone thinks you're the frontrunner, you're probably doomed. But that doesn’t stop the world from staring at the Vatican chimney every time a transition looms.
Right now, the atmosphere in Rome is thick with speculation. We've just come off a long, transformative era under Pope Francis, and the College of Cardinals is deeply divided—not necessarily in a "we hate each other" way, but in a "where on earth do we go from here?" way. You've got the camp that wants to double down on Francis’s radical inclusivity, and the camp that is practically vibrating with the desire to return to "traditional" liturgical roots.
So, who are the contenders for the next pope? Let’s look at the real players on the board.
The Continuity Candidates: Carrying the Torch
If the cardinals decide they like the path Francis started—focusing on the "peripheries," the poor, and the environment—they’re going to look for someone who doesn’t rock the boat too much but keeps the engine running.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin is the name that pops up most. He’s the Vatican Secretary of State. Basically, he’s the ultimate diplomat. People call him a "safe pair of hands." He’s Italian, which would bring the papacy back to Italy after decades of "outsiders" like John Paul II, Benedict, and Francis. He’s moderate, soft-spoken, and knows where all the bodies are buried in the Roman Curia. But that’s also his weakness. Sometimes being the ultimate insider makes you a target for everyone who wants a fresh start.
Then there’s Cardinal Matteo Zuppi. If Parolin is the diplomat, Zuppi is the "street priest." He’s the Archbishop of Bologna and is heavily linked to the Community of Sant’Egidio—a group famous for peace negotiations and feeding the poor. Zuppi is charismatic. He rides a bike. He talks to people on the margins. He’s very much in the mold of Francis, but maybe with a bit more of that polished Italian charm.
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The Global South: A Historic Shift?
The Church is shrinking in Europe and exploding in Africa and Asia. It feels almost inevitable that the next leader will come from one of these regions.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines is often called the "Asian Francis." He’s 68, which is actually quite young in "pope years." He’s known for being incredibly emotional—he’s cried in public during his sermons—and he has a massive social media following. He represents the future of the Church. However, some conservative cardinals think he’s too much like Francis. If the conclave wants a "course correction," Tagle might be a tough sell.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana is another heavy hitter. He’s worked in the Vatican for years and was a key architect of Francis’s writings on climate change. He’s a weird mix of progressive social views and very traditional African theological stances. That "best of both worlds" vibe could make him a perfect compromise candidate for those who want an African pope but fear someone too radical.
The Conservative Pushback
Don’t think for a second that the traditionalist wing is just sitting this one out. There is a very loud, very influential group of cardinals who think the Church has become too "blurry" under the last pontificate. They want clarity. They want Latin. They want the old ways.
Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea is the hero of this movement. He’s written books about the "power of silence" and has been openly critical of some of the more liberal shifts in the Vatican. He’s 80, which means he’d likely be a "transitional" pope—someone to steady the ship for a few years rather than starting a thirty-year revolution.
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Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary is the "intellectual" conservative. He’s a world-class canon lawyer. He’s precise, slightly austere, and deeply respected for his brain. If the cardinals want someone to clean up the legal and financial mess of the Vatican with a firm, traditionalist hand, Erdő is their guy.
The Wildcard: The Jerusalem Factor
One name that has recently shot up the list is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa. He’s the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Think about that for a second. He lives in the most volatile, complicated religious landscape on the planet.
Pizzaballa is an Italian Franciscan who has spent decades in the Middle East. He speaks fluent Hebrew, Arabic, and English. In a world torn apart by war, a man who has actually managed to keep lines of communication open between Israelis and Palestinians carries a lot of weight. He’s only 60, which is young, but his experience is "battle-tested" in a way few other cardinals can claim.
What actually happens in the room?
It’s worth noting that the "voters" (the cardinals under 80) were mostly appointed by Francis. On paper, that should mean a pro-Francis result. But cardinals are famous for being independent. Once they’re locked in the Sistine Chapel, away from their phones and the press, the vibe changes. They aren’t just looking for a "politician"; they’re looking for a pastor who can keep 1.3 billion people from drifting apart.
The real debate usually boils down to three things:
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- Age: Do we want a 20-year papacy or a 5-year "reset"?
- Geography: Is it finally time for Africa or Asia?
- Internal vs. External: Do we need a manager to fix the Vatican’s bureaucracy, or a missionary to talk to the world?
The "Hidden" Contenders
Keep an eye on Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline of Marseille. He’s a dark horse who specializes in interreligious dialogue in the Mediterranean. Also, Cardinal Robert Prevost, an American-born cardinal who has spent years in Peru. He’s an "outside-in" candidate who knows the Vatican but isn’t defined by it.
Your Next Move
If you want to follow this like a pro, stop looking at the mainstream "Who will win?" polls and start looking at who the cardinals are visiting. The months leading up to a conclave involve a lot of "informal" dinners in Rome.
What you should do next:
Check out the current list of the College of Cardinals and filter by those under age 80. Look at their backgrounds—specifically, who has "pastoral" experience (running a real diocese) versus who has just worked in a Vatican office. In a crisis, the guys who have actually dealt with real people in pews usually have the advantage over the bureaucrats.
The white smoke is coming eventually. Whether it signals a revolution or a return to tradition is anyone's guess.