You’ve probably seen the photos. A line of black buggies parked outside a fire hall in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, or maybe a group of men in suspenders and straw hats standing near a "Trump" sign. It makes for a great viral image. But honestly, it’s also a bit of a caricature. When people ask who are the amish voting for, they usually expect a simple answer—like they’re a secret army of MAGA supporters waiting to be unleashed.
The reality? It’s way more complicated than a billboard on a backroad.
Most Amish people don’t vote. Period. They live by a "two-kingdom" theology. Basically, they believe they belong to the Kingdom of God, while the government belongs to the "world." Mixing the two is, for many, a spiritual compromise. However, that hasn't stopped political operatives from trying to change their minds. In the 2024 election and looking ahead to 2026, the push to register the "Plain People" has reached a fever pitch.
Why the GOP Obsesses Over the Amish Vote
If you’re a Republican strategist, the Amish are a dream demographic on paper. They are pro-life. They value hard work. They hate government overreach. They basically lived through the ultimate "de-banking" and "off-grid" lifestyle centuries before it became a talking point on podcasts.
Republican U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker, who actually comes from an Amish family background, has been one of the loudest voices predicting a "dramatic increase" in their turnout. He argues that the Amish just want the government to stay out of their business and their religion.
The Amos Miller Factor
Nothing mobilized the community recently quite like the case of Amos Miller. He’s an Amish farmer in Bird-in-Hand who got into a massive legal battle with the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture over raw milk sales.
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- The Raid: State officials executed a search warrant on his farm in early 2024.
- The Reaction: To many Amish, this wasn't just about food safety; it was the government bullying a small farmer.
- The Fallout: Activists like Scott Presler used this incident as a rallying cry. They told the Amish, "If you don't vote, the government will come for your farms next."
This specific event did more to move the needle than a thousand glossy mailers ever could. It made politics feel personal.
What the Numbers Actually Say
Let’s get real about the statistics because there is a lot of "fake news" out there regarding 180,000 Amish voters suddenly appearing. Steven Nolt, the director of the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies at Elizabethtown College, is basically the world’s leading expert on this. He’s the guy who actually goes through the voter rolls and cross-checks them with church directories by hand.
In 2020, Nolt estimated that only about 3,000 Amish people voted in Lancaster County.
That is a tiny fraction of the population. Even with the 2024 surge, we’re talking about several hundred or maybe a few thousand more—not a hundred thousand. While Donald Trump won Pennsylvania in 2024 by over 150,000 votes, the Amish contribution was a drop in the bucket compared to the shifts in the suburbs or the "Blue Wall" counties.
Who do they choose when they do vote?
When they do cast a ballot, the Amish are almost exclusively Republican.
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- Religious Freedom: They want to be left alone to run their schools and churches.
- Economic Issues: Many have moved from farming into small businesses (carpentry, sheds, markets). High taxes and regulations hurt their bottom line.
- Traditional Values: Their stance on social issues aligns almost perfectly with the conservative wing of the GOP.
The Cultural Barrier: Why They Stay Home
So, why isn't every Amish person a registered voter? It comes down to Gelassenheit—a core concept of yielding to God’s will. To vote is to try to exert power over others. In their view, God ordains leaders. If a leader is bad, it’s a test of faith. If a leader is good, it’s a blessing.
There’s also the "peace testimony." The Amish are pacifists. They don't serve in the military. Some feel that if they vote for a Commander-in-Chief, they are partially responsible for the wars that leader starts. That’s a heavy spiritual burden for someone who won't even defend themselves in a fistfight.
Then you have the candidates themselves. Neither Donald Trump nor his Democratic rivals exactly live an "Amish" lifestyle. Trump’s brashness, his history with casinos, and his public persona are the polar opposite of Amish humility. While they might like his policies, the man himself is a bit of a culture shock.
Misconceptions You Should Stop Believing
There’s a popular myth that the Amish voted for Trump because of his "Golden Hair" or some prophecy. That’s nonsense. Most of them don't even have TVs or internet access to follow the 24-hour news cycle. Their information comes from The Budget (an Amish newspaper), local gossip at the blacksmith, or what their non-Amish neighbors tell them.
Another myth? That they’re "uninformed."
Many Amish business owners are incredibly savvy. They know exactly how much a gallon of diesel costs. They know how inflation affects the price of lumber. They might not use X (formerly Twitter), but they understand the economy better than most suburbanites.
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The Future of the Amish in 2026 and Beyond
As we look toward the 2026 midterms and the next presidential cycle, expect the outreach to get even weirder. We’ve already seen:
- Pennsylvania German Billboards: Signs written in "Low German" (Deitsch) to catch the eye of buggy drivers.
- Door-to-Door Canvassing: Political workers walking up long gravel drives to talk to families.
- Mail-in Ballot Education: Explaining how to vote without having to go to a "worldly" polling station.
Whether this actually changes the culture remains to be seen. For 300 years, the Amish have survived by being invisible to the state. Becoming a "voting bloc" makes them visible. And in their world, visibility is often the first step toward losing your way of life.
Actionable Insights for Observing This Trend
If you’re following this story, don't just look at the headlines. Check the actual data.
- Watch Lancaster County Results: If a precinct in a heavily Amish area like Intercourse or Strasburg shows a 10% jump in GOP turnout, that’s your signal.
- Monitor "Plain" Issues: Watch for legislation regarding raw milk, homeschooling, or child labor laws. These are the "kitchen table" issues that actually move this demographic.
- Ignore the Hype: If someone claims "the Amish won the election," they’re likely exaggerating. They are a fascinating group, but their impact is more symbolic of the GOP's reach into rural America than it is a mathematical game-changer.
The real story isn't just about a ballot box. It's about a centuries-old community trying to decide if they can participate in a modern democracy without losing their soul.
To understand the full impact, look at the local election data in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Focus on the precinct-level shifts in rural townships where the population density is primarily Amish. Compare the registration numbers from the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies against official state voter rolls to see if the "Amos Miller effect" is a permanent shift or a one-time reaction to government pressure. This data will provide the most accurate picture of how this community's political engagement is evolving.