Wait. It’s been days. Maybe weeks. You’re refreshing the page, looking at that map, and the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives is still a blurry mess of "too close to call." Honestly, it’s frustrating. People want answers, but the machinery of American democracy—especially in places like California and the Pacific Northwest—moves at the speed of a snail on a Sunday stroll.
So, what House races are still not called, and why does it feel like we’re stuck in a loop?
Control of the gavel is hanging by a thread. We aren't just talking about a few seats; we're talking about the difference between a functional majority and a legislative stalemate that could define the next two years of American policy.
The California "Black Hole" and the West Coast Wait
If you’re wondering why things are taking forever, look at California. Seriously. The Golden State is notorious for this. It isn’t a conspiracy; it’s the law. California allows ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive up to seven days later. Then, they have to verify every single signature on those mail-in envelopes.
In the 13th District, John Duarte and Adam Gray have been locked in a literal ground-war for votes. This isn't their first rodeo—they had a nail-biter back in 2022, too. When you have a gap of fewer than 500 votes in a district with hundreds of thousands of people, nobody is going to "call" that race until the very last provisional ballot is cured.
The 45th District is another nightmare for pundits. Michelle Steel and Derek Tran have been swapping the lead back and forth like a hot potato. It’s a high-stakes game. This district covers parts of Orange County, where the demographic shift is real and the political leanings are shifting under our feet. You’ve got a massive Vietnamese-American population that both parties are desperately trying to court, and the razor-thin margins reflect that tension.
Why "Too Close to Call" Isn't Just a TV Catchphrase
Networks like the AP or NBC don't just guess. They use "the needle," but the needle hates uncertainty. A race stays uncalled when the number of outstanding ballots is larger than the lead one candidate has. Simple math, right? Not really.
You have to account for "ballot curing."
Imagine a voter forgot to sign their envelope. In many states, the registrar has to contact that voter and give them a chance to fix it. This takes time. It’s manual labor. It’s phone calls and letters.
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In Arizona’s 6th District, Juan Ciscomani and Kirsten Engel are basically living in a statistical tie. Arizona’s counting process is famously methodical (read: slow). They have to process "dropped off" mail ballots—those tens of thousands of envelopes handed in at polling places on Election Day. Those are the last to be scanned because they require the most verification.
The Alaska At-Large Complexity
Then there's Alaska. Mary Peltola, the incumbent Democrat who flipped the seat in a special election, is fighting for her political life against Nick Begich. But Alaska uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV).
If nobody gets over 50% in the first round, the whole thing goes to an instant runoff. They have to wait for every single overseas and military ballot to arrive before they can even trigger the RCV software. It’s a waiting game that drives everyone crazy, but it’s how their system ensures the winner has the broadest possible support.
Oregon and the 5th District Drama
Up in Oregon, Janelle Bynum and Lori Chavez-DeRemer have been in a slugfest. This is a "toss-up" in the truest sense of the word. Oregon is a 100% mail-in state. While they are efficient, the sheer volume of late-arriving ballots in a high-turnout year means the 5th District often stays "grey" on the map long after the East Coast has gone to bed.
What's fascinating here is the suburban shift. We're seeing areas that used to be reliably "red" or "blue" become purple battlegrounds. This creates more "uncalled" races because the historical data used by networks to "project" a winner no longer applies. The old models are breaking.
The Battle for the Magic Number: 218
To control the House, you need 218 seats.
When the margin is 219 to 216, every single one of these uncalled races is a heart attack for party leadership. This is why you see lawyers flying into districts in the middle of the night. They aren't just watching the count; they are challenging individual ballots.
"Is that a smudge or a mark for my candidate?"
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"Does this signature actually match the one from 1994?"
It sounds petty. It is petty. But when the speakership depends on it, every smudge matters.
What Most People Get Wrong About Late Returns
There’s this persistent myth that "late votes" are somehow suspicious. Honestly, it’s usually just geography and demographics. In many states, rural precincts (which tend to lean Republican) report their totals fast because they have fewer people. Big urban centers (which tend to lean Democratic) have millions of people and take longer.
Also, Democrats have historically utilized mail-in voting at higher rates recently, while Republicans have pushed for more "Day-of" voting. This creates the "Red Mirage" or "Blue Shift" that we see every cycle. It’s not fraud; it’s just the order in which the boxes are opened.
How to Track These Races Without Losing Your Mind
Stop looking at the national map. It’s too broad. If you want to know what House races are still not called with any degree of accuracy, you have to go to the source.
- Secretary of State Websites: This is where the raw data lives. Most states like California or Arizona have a "Results" portal that updates a few times a day.
- The "Canvass" Period: Understand that "Election Day" is actually "Election Month." States have weeks to certify the results officially.
- Follow the Reporters on the Ground: Local journalists in Orange County or Tucson often have better intel on how many ballots are left in the "bins" than the national anchors in New York.
The Financial Fallout of the Wait
Believe it or not, this delay affects the economy. Markets hate uncertainty. Until we know who controls the House, we don't know the future of tax policy, the debt ceiling, or government spending.
Lobbyists and CEOs are currently sitting on their hands, waiting to see if they’ll be dealing with a Republican-led Ways and Means Committee or a Democratic one. The "uncalled" status keeps billions of dollars in investment capital on the sidelines.
What Happens if it’s a Tie?
It’s unlikely, but not impossible, to have a 217-217 split with one seat vacant or a perfect 217-217-1. If no party hits 218, the House effectively grinds to a halt. They can’t even elect a Speaker. Remember the chaos of the multiple Speaker votes recently? Multiply that by ten.
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This is why these remaining races—the "Slower Eight" or "Final Five"—are the most important elections in the country right now.
Actionable Steps for the Informed Voter
If you are living in one of these districts where the race isn't called, or if you're just a political junkie trying to make sense of the noise, here is what you should actually do:
Check your own ballot status. If you live in a state with ballot curing (like California or Colorado), log into your "My Voter" portal. Ensure your ballot was accepted. If it says "Signature Mismatch," call your local registrar immediately to "cure" it. Your individual vote actually could be the one that tips a seat.
Ignore "Projected" winners on social media. People post fake screenshots of "final counts" to stir up drama. Only trust official tallies from the county registrars or the Associated Press, which has a very high bar for calling races.
Prepare for recounts. In many jurisdictions, if the margin is under 0.5%, a recount is automatic. This means we might not have a final, certified answer for these House races until well into December.
Understand the "Provisionals." Provisional ballots are cast by people whose eligibility was questioned at the poll. These are always the last to be counted because each one requires a mini-investigation by election officials. If there are 5,000 provisional ballots and the lead is 200, the race is staying "uncalled" for a long time.
Stay patient. The delay isn't a sign that the system is broken; ironically, it’s a sign that the safeguards are working. They are prioritizing accuracy over speed, which is exactly what you want when the stakes are this high.