Look, checking the path of the current hurricane feels like a full-time job once a storm actually breaks away from the coast of Africa or starts spinning up in the Gulf. Right now, everyone is staring at the spaghetti models for Hurricane Felicia. It’s stressful. You’ve got the NHC (National Hurricane Center) saying one thing, and your neighbor's favorite Facebook "weather guru" saying another.
The reality? Hurricanes don't care about our plans.
As of this afternoon, January 15, 2026, Felicia is sitting roughly 450 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. It's moving at a steady 14 mph. That might sound slow, but in the world of tropical meteorology, that’s a decent clip. The central pressure has dropped to 974 mb. That matters because lower pressure usually means a meaner storm. If you’re in the Caribbean or along the Southeast U.S. coast, you’re probably already seeing the grocery store shelves look a little thin.
Decoding the Cone of Uncertainty
Everyone talks about "The Cone." Honestly, most people read it wrong. They think if they are outside the center of that white shaded area on the map, they’re safe.
That’s just not how physics works.
The path of the current hurricane as drawn by the NHC represents where the center of the storm might go two-thirds of the time. It says nothing about how wide the wind field is. Felicia has tropical-storm-force winds extending 150 miles from its center. So, even if the "eye" stays 100 miles offshore, you’re still getting hammered.
Why the Models Keep Shifting
Why do the lines on the map look like a pile of dropped noodles? Because the atmosphere is a giant, chaotic soup.
You’ve got the Bermuda High—this big ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic—acting like a wall. If that high stays strong, it shoves the hurricane further west toward Florida or the Gulf. If it weakens, the storm "re-curves" and heads out to sea, becoming a "fish storm" that bothers nobody but the sailors.
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Right now, the European model (ECMWF) is leaning toward a more northern track. The GFS—the American model—is pushing it a bit further south. Meteorologists like Dr. Levi Cowan or the team over at Tropical Tidbits spend hours looking at these subtle shifts in the jet stream. It’s a game of inches that translates into hundreds of miles on the ground.
What Felicia’s Current Strength Tells Us
Intensity is the hardest thing to predict. We’re getting better at the path of the current hurricane, but knowing if it will be a Category 2 or a Category 4 at landfall is still a bit of a coin toss.
Felicia is currently a Category 2.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in its path are hovering around 82°F. That’s basically rocket fuel for a hurricane. Warm water is the engine. When the storm passes over these "hot spots," it can undergo rapid intensification. We saw this with storms like Michael and Ian in years past. One minute it’s a manageable storm, and twelve hours later, it’s a monster.
There is some wind shear coming off the coast of Cuba, though. Wind shear is the hero we need. It basically tilts the storm, preventing it from staying organized. If that shear holds, Felicia might struggle to reach Category 3 status. If it fades? We have a problem.
Impact Zones: Who Needs to Move?
If you are in Puerto Rico or the Virgin Islands, the time for "watching and waiting" ended this morning. The outer bands are expected to lash the islands by Friday night.
For the U.S. mainland, the path of the current hurricane suggests a potential landfall somewhere between Florida’s Space Coast and the Carolinas by the middle of next week. But—and this is a big but—the "trough" moving across the United States will be the deciding factor.
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- The Bahamas: Extreme risk of storm surge.
- Florida: Potential for heavy inland flooding even if the eye stays offshore.
- The Carolinas: High surf and beach erosion are already starting.
Local officials in Brevard County have already issued voluntary evacuation orders for mobile homes. It's not about being scared; it's about being smart. You don't want to be the person on their roof waiting for a helicopter because you thought the "ridge" would protect you.
Misconceptions About Hurricane Paths
I hear this every year: "The mountains will break it up."
Sure, if a storm hits the mountains of Hispaniola or Cuba, the terrain messes with the circulation. It’s like putting a stick in a blender. But once that storm hits the open water of the Florida Straits or the Gulf Stream, it can reorganize with terrifying speed. Never assume a "weakened" storm is a dead storm.
Another one? "I'm 50 miles inland, I'm fine."
Water kills more people than wind. Fresh-water flooding from stalled hurricanes is often the deadliest part of the path of the current hurricane. If Felicia slows down to 5 mph while over land, it’s going to dump 20 inches of rain. Your roof might stay on, but your living room could become a pond.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
Watching the news can make you feel paralyzed. Don't let it. There are specific, boring things you should do right now while the sun is still shining.
Check your zones. Know if you are in an evacuation zone. This is different from a flood zone. Check your county's GIS map. If they say go, you go.
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Gas and Cash. If the power goes out, credit card machines don't work and gas pumps don't pump. Get your car filled today. Grab a couple of hundred dollars in small bills.
Document everything. Take a video of your house. Every room. Every electronic. Open the closets. If you have to file an insurance claim later, this five-minute video will be the most valuable thing you own.
Clear the yard. That patio furniture becomes a missile in 90 mph winds. Put the trampolines away. Throw the grill in the garage.
The path of the current hurricane will likely shift again by the 11:00 PM update. Keep your radio tuned to NOAA weather frequencies. Trust the pros, ignore the hype-trackers on TikTok, and keep your shoes near the bed in case you have to move fast in the middle of the night.
Stay safe out there. Pay attention to the water levels more than the wind speed. We can rebuild a fence, but we can't replace you.
Immediate Checklist:
- Secure all outdoor projectiles (furniture, plants, toys).
- Fill clean containers with drinking water (aim for 1 gallon per person per day).
- Charge all portable power banks and localized medical devices.
- Review your family emergency communication plan.
- Locate your physical copies of insurance policies and ID documents.