If you’ve lived in the Lone Star State for more than a week, you know the drill. One minute you’re complaining about the heat, and the next, you’re wondering if your truck can make it through that "puddle" at the end of the street. Honestly, figuring out where in Texas is it flooding can feel like a full-time job during the rainy season. Texas weather is basically a chaotic mix of "too dry" and "too much water all at once."
Right now, as we move through January 2026, the situation is actually a bit of a relief for most, but it’s still tricky in specific spots. After the absolute nightmare of the 2025 floods—especially that catastrophic event in the Hill Country that we’re still talking about—everyone is on edge.
📖 Related: Is Trump Doing the Purge? What's Actually Happening in Washington
Currently, the major river systems like the Colorado and the Brazos are mostly behaving. But don't let the sunny skies in Dallas or Austin fool you. Ground saturation from earlier winter rains means that even a "light" shower can turn a dry creek into a wall of water in minutes.
The Current High-Risk Zones (January 2026)
So, where is the water actually rising today? Luckily, we aren't seeing a repeat of the July 4th disaster right this second. However, hydrologists are keeping a very close eye on Lake Texoma.
As of mid-January, Lake Texoma has been rising steadily. It's actually hitting levels that have triggered spillway alerts. For only the fourth time since the dam was built in 1944, water has been seen flowing over the spillway. That’s huge. We're talking about a lake that is sitting at roughly 124% of its full capacity. If you’re near the Red River downstream from the Denison Dam, you need to be watching the gauges.
✨ Don't miss: Rae Fischer and Judge Pauline Newman: The Story Behind the Federal Circuit Conflict
East Texas and the Trinity River Basin
East Texas is always the "wet" sibling of the state. Because of the heavy pine curtains and the way the land sits, water moves slower here. It lingers.
- Smith County: We recently saw some localized flash flooding in Tyler. Law enforcement reported water over the roads near Loop 323.
- The Neches River: Minor flooding is common here this time of year. It’s mostly affecting timberlands and low-lying cattle pastures, but it’s a reminder of how quickly things shift.
The Hill Country: "Flash Flood Alley"
You've probably heard this term. It's not a marketing slogan; it’s a warning. The geography of the Texas Hill Country—thin soil over hard limestone—acts like a concrete slide.
Last year, specifically July 2025, showed us the worst-case scenario. The flooding at Camp Mystic on the Guadalupe River was a tragedy that took 119 lives across Kerr County. Today, the rivers like the San Marcos and the Guadalupe are flowing at much more manageable rates. For instance, the San Marcos River at Luling is currently stable, but any localized storm in the San Antonio-Austin corridor can change that in an hour.
Why Does Texas Flood So Weirdly?
It’s the ground. Seriously.
When we go through a drought, the dirt gets hard as a brick. When the rain finally hits, it doesn't soak in. It just bounces off and runs toward the lowest point. In places like Houston, the issue is different—it's about "sheet flow." Because Houston is so flat, the water doesn't really have anywhere to "go." It just stacks up.
👉 See also: How Long Can a President Serve: What Most People Get Wrong
Most people think flooding only happens near a river. That's a myth. In North Texas and the Metroplex, urban flooding is usually caused by drainage systems that just can't keep up with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. You'll see "where in Texas is it flooding" trending on social media not because a river broke its banks, but because a drainage ditch in Plano overflowed into a parking lot.
Checking the Gauges: Real Tools You Need
If you're worried about your specific neighborhood, staring at a general weather map isn't enough. You need the granular stuff.
- LCRA Hydromet: If you live in Central Texas, the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) has a "Hydromet" tool that shows real-time river stages and lake levels.
- USGS WaterWatch: This is the gold standard. It shows a map of the entire state with colored dots. Blue means high flow; black means "you should probably be somewhere else."
- Texas Storm Chasers: These guys are often faster than the local news. Their app is a staple for anyone who wants to know where the next "train" of storms is heading.
Honestly, the best thing you can do is look at the "NWS Flood Categories." A river might be "in flood," but if it's in "Minor Flood Stage," it usually just means some park trails are underwater. "Major Flood Stage" is when you start packing the bags.
Misconceptions About "Safe" Areas
A lot of folks move to the suburbs of Austin or Dallas and think, "I'm on a hill, I'm fine."
Water is surprisingly creative. In the 2025 Kerrville floods, some of the most devastating damage happened to people who thought they were far enough away from the riverbank. The debris—massive cypress trees and pieces of houses—acts like a battering ram. It creates "dams" that cause the water to divert into areas that have never flooded in 100 years.
Also, don't trust your GPS during a flood. Apps like Waze or Google Maps are great for traffic, but they don't always know when a low-water crossing has two feet of rushing water over it. "Turn Around, Don't Drown" isn't just a catchy phrase; it's the difference between a scary story and a funeral.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
If you see a Flash Flood Watch for your area, don't wait for the rain to start to take action.
- Check the "Texas Flood" Website: This is a state-run portal (TexasFlood.org) that aggregates data from the NWS and various river authorities. It's the quickest way to see a consolidated view of the state.
- Move the Vehicles: If you live in a low-lying area or an apartment complex with a history of parking lot "puddles," move your car to higher ground early.
- Document Your Stuff: Take a quick video of your home and belongings today. If the worst happens, having that timestamped proof for insurance is a lifesaver.
- Get the "Code Red" or Local Alerts: Many counties like Kerr and Smith use specific emergency alert systems. Make sure your phone isn't on "Do Not Disturb" if a storm is coming overnight.
The reality of 2026 is that our weather patterns are getting more extreme. We have longer dry spells followed by "rain bombs" that drop a month's worth of water in a single afternoon. Staying informed isn't just about looking at the sky; it's about knowing the terrain around you and respecting the fact that in Texas, the water always wins.
Keep an eye on the Lake Texoma spillway and the San Marcos River levels this week. While the immediate threat has subsided for most of the state, the saturated ground means we are one big storm away from another headline. Be smart, stay dry, and never assume a "small" creek is harmless.