Checking the horizon for smoke is basically a reflex for Californians now. You wake up, you smell the air, and you wonder if today is the day the sky turns that weird, post-apocalyptic orange. Honestly, the anxiety is real. If you’re looking at a map today, January 16, 2026, and asking where are fires burning in California, the answer might actually surprise you.
It's quiet.
Well, "quiet" in the way a dormant volcano is quiet. According to the latest data from CAL FIRE, we’ve only seen about 12 wildland fires across the state since the ball dropped on New Year's Eve. Compare that to the same time last year in 2025, when we were already grappling with over 100 fires and 40,000 acres of scorched earth, mostly due to those brutal early-season blazes in the Los Angeles basin. This year, we’ve barely burned a single acre in total. It feels like a win, but any local knows better than to let their guard down.
The Current Map: What’s Actually Happening Right Now
Right now, the CAL FIRE incident dashboard is blissfully empty of those giant red flame icons that keep us up at night. There are no major active "complexes" or out-of-control mega-fires. Most of what the sensors are picking up are small, sub-10-acre brush fires that the local crews are jumping on within minutes.
Southern California is usually the hotspot this time of year because of the Santa Ana winds. We saw this in January 2025 with the Hurst Fire in Sylmar and those terrifying runs in the Hollywood Hills. But 2026 has started differently. A weak La Niña pattern is hanging around, which usually means "dry and warm," but a lucky series of late-December rain events basically put the southern half of the state on ice.
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But don't get too comfortable. Even if there isn't a 100,000-acre monster chewing through the Sierra foothills right this second, "fire season" isn't a season anymore. It’s a permanent state of being.
Why the Lack of Smoke is Deceiving
You’ve probably heard the term "hydroclimate whiplash." It’s a fancy way of saying California can't decide if it’s a rainforest or a desert. In 2023 and 2024, we had a ton of rain. That sounds great, right? Wrong. All that water grew a massive amount of "fine fuels"—think tall grass and weeds. Then, the heat of 2025 turned that grass into literal tinder.
Even though it’s January, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) is still flagging parts of the state for "above normal" potential later this winter. Why? Because that grass is still standing. It’s dead, it’s dry, and it only takes one spark from a dragging trailer chain or a downed power line to turn a quiet Tuesday into a disaster.
The Regions We’re Keeping an Eye On
- The Inland Empire and LA Basin: This is the primary zone of concern for January and February. The Santa Ana winds don't care about the calendar. If we get a dry spell for two weeks, those hillsides become high-speed corridors for fire.
- The Sierra Nevada Foothills: It’s cold up there, but the "fuel load" (the amount of dead wood and brush) is still incredibly high. We’re watching for lightning strikes, though those are rarer in mid-winter.
- The North Coast: Usually the wettest part of the state, but even Humboldt and Mendocino have seen "winter fires" when the offshore winds kick up.
Understanding the "Real-Time" Data
If you’re refreshing a map and seeing dots, don't panic immediately. Satellites like MODIS and VIIRS pick up "heat signatures." Sometimes these are just controlled burns. CAL FIRE and the U.S. Forest Service often use the winter months to do "prescribed fire" work.
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They’re basically fighting fire with fire—literally. They burn off the undergrowth now so that when August rolls around, the forest isn't a giant pile of matches. If you see smoke near Yosemite or the Tahoe National Forest this week, there’s a good chance it’s a planned project. You can check the "Prescribed Fire" layer on the CAL FIRE map to verify.
The 2026 Outlook: What the Experts are Saying
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for early 2026 is a bit of a mixed bag. The "weak La Niña" I mentioned earlier is the big player here. Historically, La Niña means a drier Southern California and a potentially wetter Northern California.
However, we’re seeing a transition. Experts at the Climate Prediction Center are looking at a 66% chance of moving into "ENSO-neutral" conditions by March. This basically means the weather becomes a wild card. We could get "March Miracles" (huge snowstorms) or we could slide into an early spring drought.
Misconceptions About Winter Fires
A lot of people think that because there’s snow on the peaks, the state is safe. That’s a dangerous myth. Fire doesn't need 100-degree weather; it needs low humidity and fuel.
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In fact, some of our most destructive fires have happened when it was technically "cold" outside. The Thomas Fire (December) and the Marshall Fire in Colorado (also December) proved that wind plus dry grass equals catastrophe, regardless of the temperature.
Practical Steps for the Current Situation
Since there are no major evacuations today, this is actually the best time to do the "boring" stuff that saves lives.
- Check your "Defensible Space": You don't need to be a lumberjack. Just clear the dead leaves out of your gutters and move that pile of firewood away from your siding. Embers from a fire miles away can land in your gutters and ignite your roof.
- Sign up for "CodeRED" or your county’s alert system: Don't rely on Twitter (or X, or whatever it’s called today). If cell towers go down, these official alerts are often the only way to get evacuation orders in time.
- The "Go-Bag" check: Most people have a bag, but is the medicine expired? Do the extra batteries still work? Do you have a physical map of your town? If the power goes out, your GPS might be useless.
Where to Track Updates
If you want the most accurate, no-nonsense data on where are fires burning in California, bookmark these three sources. Forget the sensationalist headlines; these are the pros:
- CAL FIRE Incidents Page: This is the "gold standard." If it's over 10 acres, it's here.
- Watch Duty App: Honestly, this app has changed the game. It uses a network of volunteers and radio scanners to give you updates often faster than the official channels.
- AirNow.gov: Sometimes you can't see the fire, but you can breathe it. This site tracks the smoke plumes, which can travel hundreds of miles.
The situation today is calm. Let’s enjoy it, but let’s also remember that in California, "calm" is just the time we use to get ready for the "chaos."
Stay frosty.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your local county emergency management website to confirm you are enrolled in the reverse-911 system. Download the Watch Duty app and set your "home" radius to 50 miles. Finally, take ten minutes today to walk around your home and identify any dry vegetation touching your structure—clearing just that small gap can be the difference between a standing home and a total loss.