The white smoke. Honestly, that’s all anyone is looking for when the Vatican goes into lockdown mode. But if you’re sitting there staring at a livestream of a copper chimney in Rome, you've probably realized that "when" we find out is a moving target.
It’s never a scheduled press release.
Basically, the timeline for when will we know the new pope is a mix of ancient law, high-stakes voting, and how fast a group of older men can agree on the future of 1.4 billion people. In 2025, we saw this play out with the election of Pope Leo XIV, the first American to take the chair of Peter. It was a whirlwind that proved even in our digital age, the Church moves at its own rhythmic, sometimes frustrating pace.
The Clock Starts at Sede Vacante
The moment a papacy ends—whether through death or a rare resignation—the Church enters Sede Vacante. The seat is vacant.
Everything stops.
The Pope’s ring is smashed. His private apartments are sealed with lead tape. You won't hear a name for a while because the "Interregnum" rules require a mandatory waiting period. Usually, the cardinals have to wait at least 15 days, but no more than 20, before they can actually start the Conclave.
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Why the delay? Logistics. Cardinals have to fly in from places like Nairobi, Manila, and Chicago. They need time to whisper in hallways and figure out who is actually "papabile" (pope-able). You can't rush a global search committee that’s been operating for two millennia.
Inside the Sistine Chapel: How the Voting Works
Once those doors at the Sistine Chapel click shut and the Master of Ceremonies yells "Extra omnes!" (Everyone out!), the world goes dark. No phones. No iPads. No leaking to Twitter.
The cardinals vote. A lot.
They use paper ballots. They write their choice in disguised handwriting, fold it twice, and drop it into a chalice. To win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority. If they don't get it? The ballots are burned with a chemical that makes black smoke.
The Daily Rhythm of the Conclave
If you’re wondering when will we know the new pope during the actual voting days, here is how the schedule typically breaks down:
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- Day One: Only one vote in the afternoon. If it’s black smoke, they try again tomorrow.
- Subsequent Days: Four votes a day. Two in the morning, two in the afternoon.
- The Pause: If they hit a dead end after three days, they take a 24-hour break for prayer and probably some very intense "informal" chatting.
Historically, modern Conclaves are fast. Pope Francis was chosen in two days (2013). Pope Leo XIV took a bit more maneuvering in May 2025, but it still happened within the week. If it goes past day four or five, people start getting nervous.
The White Smoke and the Wait
When that white smoke finally billows out—usually around 11:30 AM or 5:30 PM Rome time—you still don't know who it is.
That’s the torture of it.
There’s a roughly 40-to-60-minute gap between the smoke and the announcement. During this "hidden" hour, the winner is asked if he accepts. He says "Accepto." He picks a name. He puts on the white cassock in the "Room of Tears" (named because most new popes break down crying there).
Then, the Senior Cardinal Deacon steps onto the balcony and says the magic words: Habemus Papam.
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Why the Timing is Always Uncertain
There is no "average" time. You’re dealing with human politics under a religious veil. In the 13th century, a Conclave once took nearly three years. The locals eventually got so fed up they ripped the roof off the building to "encourage" the cardinals to hurry up.
We don't do that anymore.
But the complexity of the modern Church—balancing the Global South’s growth against the traditional European bureaucracy—means the "when" is harder to predict. In 2025, the transition to Leo XIV was remarkably smooth because the College of Cardinals had been largely shaped by the previous decade of appointments.
Actionable Insights for Following the News
If you find yourself in the middle of a papal transition, here is how to track it like a pro:
- Watch the Chimney, Not Social Media: Rumors on X (formerly Twitter) are almost always wrong. The Vatican's internal security is terrifyingly good at blocking signals.
- Check the 15-Day Mark: Start paying attention about two weeks after the vacancy begins. That’s when the first real vote happens.
- Look for the "Morning Smoke": Usually, if a pope is elected in the morning session, the smoke appears around noon in Rome. If it’s an afternoon election, look for smoke around 6:00 PM.
- Understand the "Accepto" Gap: Don't panic if the smoke is white but the balcony stays empty for an hour. The new guy is just getting dressed and praying.
Knowing when will we know the new pope isn't about a calendar; it's about watching a process that refuses to change for the modern world. It is the last great mystery of the West. When the bells of St. Peter’s start clanging alongside that white smoke, you’ll have your answer—and not a second before.