Honestly, if you’re looking at the calendar waiting for a date, you’re kind of looking at it the wrong way. The Vatican doesn’t exactly do "scheduling" like a corporate board does. People always ask when will they choose a new pope, but the reality is that the seat of Peter is currently occupied by Pope Leo XIV, who was elected back in May 2025.
Wait, let's back up.
If you missed the news or you're just trying to understand how this whole thing works for the next time around, you have to realize that the Catholic Church moves on a timeline that is basically ancient. We are talking about a process that has stayed more or less the same for about 800 years. It’s not about a "term limit" or an "election cycle" every four years. It only happens when the current Pope either passes away or—as we saw with Benedict XVI—decides to resign.
The Trigger: Sede Vacante
When a Pope dies or steps down, the Church enters a period called Sede Vacante. That’s Latin for "the seat being vacant." This is the only time the question of when will they choose a new pope actually becomes active.
During this time, the "Camerlengo" (the Chamberlain) takes over the day-to-day administration. But he’s more like a caretaker. He can’t make big new laws or change Church teaching. He’s basically just keeping the lights on and the bills paid while the big bosses—the Cardinals—fly into Rome from all over the planet.
The 15-to-20 Day Rule
The rules are pretty strict about the timing. Once the papacy is vacant, the Cardinals have to wait at least 15 days, but no more than 20, to start the "Conclave."
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Why the wait?
Well, back in the day, it took a long time to travel by horse or boat from places like the Philippines or Argentina. Even today, with planes, the Church keeps that buffer to make sure every Cardinal Under 80 has a chance to get there. They need time to talk, too. They hold these meetings called "General Congregations" where they basically gossip—legally—about what the Church needs. Is the next guy going to be a diplomat? A missionary? A hardline traditionalist? This is where the real "campaigning" happens, even though they aren't allowed to call it that.
Inside the Sistine Chapel: Under Lock and Key
The word "Conclave" literally means cum clave—with a key. They literally lock the doors.
Once they go in, nobody comes out, and nobody goes in until white smoke flies. They sleep in a guesthouse called the Domus Sanctae Marthae and walk over to the Sistine Chapel to vote.
They aren't allowed phones.
No Twitter.
No newspapers.
No calling their moms.
If a Cardinal is caught sneaking a text about the vote count, they face automatic excommunication. It's that serious. They take an oath of "absolute and perpetual secrecy."
How the Voting Actually Works
They vote four times a day. Twice in the morning, twice in the afternoon.
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It’s a secret ballot. Each Cardinal writes a name on a piece of paper that says Eligo in Summum Pontificem ("I elect as Supreme Pontiff"). They try to disguise their handwriting so nobody knows who voted for whom. Then, they walk up to the altar, hold the ballot up, and swear an oath before dropping it into a chalice.
To win, a guy needs a two-thirds majority. If they don't get it, they mix the ballots with some chemicals (it used to be wet straw) and burn them. That creates the black smoke you see on the news.
Recent History and What to Expect
In 2025, when Pope Leo XIV was elected, the process was actually pretty fast. It only took four ballots over two days. People were surprised. Some thought it would take a week because the College of Cardinals is so diverse now—there are guys from 71 different countries! You’d think it would be harder to agree, but usually, a frontrunner emerges pretty quickly once they are all staring at the Last Judgment fresco on the chapel wall.
Historically, conclaves have lasted anywhere from a few hours to nearly three years. In the 1200s, the people of Viterbo got so annoyed with the Cardinals taking forever that they took the roof off the building to let the rain in, hoping to speed them up. It worked.
What Really Happens Next?
Once someone gets those 90-or-so votes (depending on the total number of electors), the Dean of the Cardinals asks him: "Do you accept?"
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If he says "Accepto," he’s the Pope right then and there. He doesn't need an inauguration. He doesn't need a crown. He just needs to say yes. Then he picks a name. Pope Francis was the first "Francis." Our current Pope, Leo XIV, chose a name that signaled a return to some of the more "lion-hearted" traditions of the 19th-century Leos.
So, When Will They Choose a New One?
Right now, there is no scheduled election. Pope Leo XIV is in office.
But if you are a "Vatican watcher," you keep an eye on two things:
- The Pope’s Health: Obviously, at advanced ages, health is the primary factor.
- Consistories: This is when the Pope appoints new Cardinals. This is how he "stacks the deck" for the future. If a Pope appoints a lot of Cardinals who think like him, the next Conclave is more likely to choose a successor who will keep his policies going.
Actionable Insights for the Curious:
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the next transition, don't just watch the headlines.
- Track the "Papabili": These are the men considered "pope-able." Names like Cardinal Luis Tagle or Cardinal Pietro Parolin are often discussed in Church circles.
- Watch the "Red Hat" count: Once the number of "Cardinal Electors" (those under 80) gets close to the limit of 120, the Pope usually holds a consistory to add more.
- Follow the "Camerlengo": Currently, Cardinal Kevin Farrell holds this role. If the papacy becomes vacant, he's the man in charge of the transition.
Understanding the "when" of a new Pope is less about a clock and more about the rhythm of an institution that thinks in centuries rather than fiscal quarters. For now, the smoke is gone, the bells have rung, and the Church is moving forward under its current leadership.