If you’ve been scrolling through news feeds lately wondering when will there be a new pope, you might have missed the massive shift that just happened at the Vatican.
It's okay. Church history moves at a snail's pace until, suddenly, it doesn't.
Basically, the "new pope" question was the biggest headline of 2025, and now that we're sitting in January 2026, the answer is already walking around St. Peter’s Square in white robes. His name is Pope Leo XIV. He was elected on May 8, 2025, following the death of Pope Francis earlier that spring.
So, if you’re looking for the next next guy, you’re probably going to be waiting a while. But let's look at how we got here and why people are still so obsessed with the "when" of it all.
The Whirlwind Transition of 2025
The Catholic world was rocked last year. Pope Francis, who had been struggling with a "polymicrobial infection" and several hospital stays at Gemelli, finally passed away after a long battle with his respiratory health. It felt like the end of an era. Francis was the first Jesuit, the first from the Americas, and a guy who really pushed the boundaries on what a Pope "should" say.
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Then came the conclave.
On May 7, 2025, 133 cardinal-electors filed into the Sistine Chapel. You know the drill: the heavy doors lock (extra omnes!), the cell phones get confiscated, and the world starts staring at a chimney. It didn't take long. By the next day, May 8, white smoke billowed out.
The choice was a bit of a shocker to some—the first American pope. Leo XIV (formerly Cardinal Sean O'Malley of Boston, though some insiders had been whispering his name for years) took the reins. Since then, the question of when will there be a new pope has shifted from a "who is it going to be?" to "what is this guy actually going to do?"
Why the Question Still Pops Up
Honestly, people ask about a "new pope" for a few reasons. Sometimes they just aren't caught up on the news—the Vatican isn't exactly TikTok-native, even if they try. Other times, it's because Leo XIV is already 81 years old.
In the modern era, we've gotten used to popes living a long time or, in Benedict XVI’s case, retiring. But when you elect a guy in his 80s, the "succession" conversation starts almost the day after the coronation. It feels a bit morbid, but in the halls of the Roman Curia, it's just logistics.
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What Leo XIV is Doing Right Now (January 2026)
If you want to know what the current "new" pope is up to, look at the calendar for this month. He just closed out the Jubilee of Hope on January 6th. That was the big Holy Year Francis started, and Leo had to finish it.
Right after that, on January 7-8, he held an extraordinary consistory. He’s basically trying to set his own course. He even proclaimed 2026 as the Year of Saint Francis to honor the 800th anniversary of the saint’s death. It’s a savvy move—honoring the namesake of his predecessor while trying to bring his own flavor of "collegial governance" to the table.
The "Papabile": Who is Next in Line?
Even though we have a pope, the "Papabile" (the guys most likely to be elected next) list is always being updated by Vatican watchers like The Tablet or Crux. If something were to happen to Leo XIV, the names at the top of the deck right now are:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The Italian veteran. He’s the Secretary of State and basically the ultimate diplomat. People call him a "safe pair of hands."
- Cardinal Luis Tagle: Often called the "Asian Francis." He’s from the Philippines, super charismatic, and very popular with the younger wing of the church.
- Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: A peace-broker from Italy who has been heavily involved in trying to end the war in Ukraine.
But remember the old Roman saying: "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves a cardinal." It basically means the front-runners almost never win. Leo XIV himself was a bit of a "dark horse" choice because of his age and nationality.
How the Process Actually Works
If you're curious about the mechanics of how we get a new pope, it’s a rigid, ancient dance. It’s not like a corporate promotion.
- Sede Vacante: This is the period when the "seat is vacant." The Camerlengo (a specific cardinal) takes charge of the temporary administration.
- The 15-20 Day Wait: The cardinals have to wait at least 15 days after a pope dies (or resigns) to start the conclave. This gives everyone time to fly to Rome.
- The Lockdown: Cardinals are literally locked in. No news, no tweets, no calling home.
- The Two-Thirds Vote: You need a supermajority. If they can’t decide after a few days, they take a break for prayer, then get back to it.
What Most People Get Wrong
A lot of folks think the Pope can just "pick" his successor. He can’t.
Pope Francis spent years appointing cardinals who "think like him" to try and influence the future, but once those guys are behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel, all bets are off. The Holy Spirit is supposed to be the one doing the talking, not the ghost of the previous pontiff.
Also, a "new pope" doesn't mean a new Church. The doctrine stays pretty much the same, even if the "vibe" changes. Leo XIV has been leaning into Vatican II teachings and trying to be more "ordinary" in his leadership style, which is a shift from the more rock-star energy of the early Francis years.
Next Steps for Staying Informed:
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- Follow the Official Bulletin: Check the Holy See Press Office for daily updates. They are the only ones who release "official" health or transition news.
- Track the Consistories: Keep an eye on when Leo XIV appoints new cardinals. These are the men who will eventually elect his successor.
- Watch the 2026 Trips: Leo XIV has mentioned wanting to visit Algeria, Peru, and Mexico this year. A pope's travel schedule is usually a great indicator of his physical stamina and his priorities for the Church.
The "when" of a new pope is always a mix of biology and tradition. For now, the "new guy" is just getting started.