You've probably seen the headlines. Some sketchy YouTube thumbnail says the "Internet Apocalypse" is coming next Tuesday, or a viral tweet claims the sun is about to fry your iPhone. It sounds like sci-fi, but the 1859 Carrington Event was very real. Back then, it just made telegraph wires spark and gave operators literal electric shocks. Today? If it happened right now, you wouldn't just be losing your Wi-Fi. We’re talking about a global power grid failure that could take years to fully fix.
So, everyone wants to know: when will the next Carrington Event happen?
The short answer is that we don't have a calendar date. Honestly, anyone telling you a specific Tuesday in 2026 is lying. But we do have math, and the math says we are currently in the danger zone. We are living through Solar Cycle 25, and while many experts thought this cycle would be a "dud," the sun has been much angrier than predicted.
The Math of Solar Superstorms
The sun follows an 11-year cycle. It’s like a heartbeat of magnetic activity. We’ve reached the "Solar Maximum"—the peak of that cycle—which means the sun is covered in sunspots and prone to throwing tantrums called Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).
Scientists at NOAA and NASA have been crunching the numbers for years. According to a widely cited study by physicist Pete Riley, the probability of another Carrington-level event hitting Earth is roughly 12% per decade.
That sounds low until you realize those are better odds than winning most scratch-off tickets.
- Solar Cycle 25 Status: We are currently in the peak period (2024–2026).
- The Risk Factor: Even as we enter the "declining phase" in late 2026 and 2027, the risk doesn't vanish. Historically, some of the most violent solar storms have happened after the official peak.
- Historical Gaps: Before 1859, there were others. We found evidence in Japanese cedar tree rings and ice cores from Greenland showing massive spikes in carbon-14. These "Miyake Events" suggest that the sun can actually produce storms much, much larger than the Carrington Event.
Basically, we are playing a high-stakes game of Russian Roulette with a star.
Why Solar Cycle 25 Is Different
Most people think "when will the next Carrington Event happen" is a question for the far future. But look at what happened in May 2024. We saw a G5-rated geomagnetic storm—the strongest in over 20 years. People saw the Northern Lights in Florida and Mexico. GPS systems for high-tech tractors in the Midwest actually glitched out, stopping farmers in their tracks.
That wasn't even a Carrington-level event. It was a "warning shot."
The sun is currently 5.5 years into its current cycle. Recent data from the SILSO (Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations) shows that sunspot numbers have consistently blown past the official forecasts. In 2025, we saw several X-class flares—the "big boys" of solar activity—knocking out radio signals across the Pacific and the Americas.
If a true Carrington-class CME—a billion-ton cloud of plasma moving at millions of miles per hour—were to hit us today, the lead time is terrifyingly short. We’d get about 30 minutes of warning from the time it passes the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite until the "lights go out."
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The Digital Dark Age Scenario
Let's get real about the damage. A Carrington Event doesn't just "break" the internet; it physically melts the infrastructure.
Long-distance power lines act like giant antennas. They pick up the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and funnel them into massive high-voltage transformers. These transformers aren't something you can just buy at Home Depot. They weigh hundreds of tons, cost millions, and have a lead time of over a year to manufacture.
If 200 of them melt at once, you’re looking at a multi-state blackout that lasts months.
Then there’s the "Kessler Syndrome" risk in space. With thousands of new satellites like Starlink in low-Earth orbit, a major storm increases atmospheric drag. Satellites start to "sink" and slow down. If operators lose control during a Carrington-level event, scientists predict it could take less than three days for cascading collisions to turn our orbit into a graveyard of shrapnel.
Can We Actually Predict It?
We are getting better. NASA’s Parker Solar Probe is literally "touching the sun," flying through the corona to understand the solar wind. ESA (European Space Agency) is launching the Vigil mission in the early 2030s to give us a "side-view" of the sun. This will allow us to see nasty sunspots before they rotate toward Earth.
But right now, our "space weather" forecasting is roughly where hurricane forecasting was in the 1950s. We see it coming, but we don't always know how hard it will hit until it’s already here.
Nuance matters here. A big flare doesn't always mean a big storm. The magnetic orientation (the "Bz component") of the CME has to flip a certain way to "unlock" Earth's magnetic field. If the magnets don't align, the plasma cloud just bounces off us like a ball hitting a wall. We get lucky.
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We’ve been getting lucky for 167 years.
What You Should Actually Do
Knowing when will the next Carrington Event happen isn't about panic; it's about being less of a "soft target." You don't need a bunker, but you do need a plan.
First, have an analog backup. If GPS goes down, do you have a paper map of your county? If the digital banking system freezes because of satellite timing errors, do you have two weeks of cash stashed away?
Second, understand your "offline" needs. Solar storms won't necessarily "fry" your phone if it's not plugged in, but the towers it talks to might be dead. Have a way to get news that doesn't rely on a 5G signal—like a hand-crank emergency radio.
Third, watch the "Kp Index." Websites like SpaceWeather.com or the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center are your best friends. If you see the Kp index hitting 8 or 9, that's your cue that something big is happening.
The sun is going to do what it wants. We are just along for the ride. The best thing we can do is harden our grids, launch better satellites, and keep a very close eye on that glowing ball in the sky.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the Current Status: Visit the NOAA Space Weather Dashboard to see if any G-scale (Geomagnetic) storms are currently active.
- Build a Tech-Free Kit: Ensure you have a 72-hour emergency kit that includes a battery-powered radio and physical maps.
- Harden Your Home: Use high-quality surge protectors for expensive electronics, though keep in mind that for a true Carrington event, unplugging them entirely is the only 100% guarantee.