It’s the question that has basically become a ritual for basketball fans. You’re sitting there watching a random Tuesday night game, and someone mentions the SuperSonics. Suddenly, the group chat is on fire. People want to know one thing: when will the nba expand so we can finally stop talking about it and actually start watching it?
Honestly, for years, Commissioner Adam Silver gave us the "corporate shrug." He’d mention that the league needed to finish the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) first. Then it was the new media rights deal. He kept moving the goalposts, and fans in places like Seattle and Las Vegas were starting to feel, well, a little teased.
But things changed just a few weeks ago.
The 2026 Determination: A Real Deadline at Last
During a press conference in late December 2025, right before the NBA Cup championship game, Silver finally put a year on it. He said the league will make a "determination" on domestic expansion sometime in 2026.
This isn't just another "we're looking at it" comment. It’s a pivot.
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The league has spent the last several months doing what Silver calls "internal modeling." Basically, they’re crunching numbers to see if adding two more teams actually makes sense for the 30 guys who already own the current teams. You’ve got to remember that the NBA is a business first. When you add teams, you’re diluting the pie. If you own 1/30th of a multi-billion dollar league, you better be sure that owning 1/32nd of a slightly bigger league is actually better for your wallet.
Why 2026 is the Magic Number
There are a few reasons why the timeline shifted to 2026.
- The Media Money is Locked: The NBA just secured a massive $77 billion media rights deal with Disney (ABC/ESPN), NBC, and Amazon Prime Video. That deal officially kicks in for the 2025-26 season. Now that they know exactly how much cash is coming in from TV and streaming, they can figure out the "buy-in" fee for new owners.
- Regional Sports Networks (RSN) Chaos: Local TV for teams has been a mess. The league wants to stabilize how fans watch their local teams—likely through a national streaming service—before they drop two new franchises into the mix.
- The Expansion Fee: Rumors suggest the fee for a new team could be $5 billion or more. If the league adds two teams, that’s a $10 billion payday. The current owners don’t have to share a cent of that with the players. That’s a lot of motivation to say "yes" in 2026.
Seattle and Vegas: The "Obvious" Frontrunners
If you’ve been paying attention, it’s not exactly a secret where the league is looking. Silver himself namechecked Seattle and Las Vegas again during his December update. He even went as far as to say he has "no doubt" Las Vegas can support a team, even with the Raiders, the Golden Knights, and the A's coming to town.
Seattle’s "Rain City" Readiness
Seattle is basically a "just add water" situation. They have the Climate Pledge Arena, which is already hosting the NHL's Kraken and is totally NBA-ready. They have a massive, tech-wealthy fan base that is still (rightfully) bitter about the Sonics leaving in 2008.
The city has been hosting the "Rain City Showcase" preseason games since 2022, and the atmosphere is always electric. Honestly, if Seattle doesn't get a team, there might be a riot.
The Las Vegas Juggernaut
Then you have Vegas. It’s the unofficial home of the NBA Summer League. It’s hosted the semifinals and finals of the NBA Cup. LeBron James has been very vocal about wanting to own a team there.
There’s a real vibe that the NBA is already operating in Vegas; they just haven’t moved the furniture in yet. With T-Mobile Arena and a potential new arena project by Oak View Group on the horizon, the infrastructure is a lock.
The "Other" Cities in the Shadows
While Seattle and Vegas are the heavy favorites, the 2026 decision might involve other names. Silver mentioned that the league has "cast a wide net."
- Mexico City: The NBA loves the idea of a global footprint. The Capitanes already play there in the G League, and the crowds are huge. But the travel and the altitude? Those are massive hurdles for a regular season schedule.
- Montreal and Vancouver: Canada has shown it's a basketball country, thanks to the Raptors. Vancouver still feels like it deserves a second chance after the Grizzlies era.
- Nashville and Louisville: These are "basketball-first" markets in the U.S. that are always mentioned in the fine print. Louisville has the KFC Yum! Center, which is as nice as any NBA arena.
How the Expansion Process Actually Works
A lot of people think the NBA just picks a city and starts selling hats. It’s way more bureaucratic.
Once the "determination" is made in 2026, the league has to open a formal application process. Potential ownership groups—like the ones led by Jeff Bezos in Seattle or LeBron in Vegas—have to show they have the billions of dollars required. They have to prove they have a lease on an arena.
Then comes the Expansion Draft.
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This is where it gets spicy. The existing 30 teams will be able to "protect" a certain number of players (usually 8). The new teams then pick from the "unprotected" leftovers. Imagine the drama of your favorite team having to decide whether to keep a veteran on a big contract or a young prospect with potential. It’s basically a league-wide soap opera.
The Real Start Date
If the decision is made in 2026, don't expect tip-off in 2027. The most realistic timeline for the first game is the 2027-28 or 2028-29 season. There’s just too much logistics, from hiring a front office to designing jerseys and selling season tickets.
The Risks: What Could Stop Expansion?
It’s not a 100% guarantee.
Some owners are worried about "talent dilution." If you add two teams, that’s 30 more roster spots. Critics argue there isn't enough high-level talent to fill those spots without making the product on the floor worse. Others worry about the economics. If the next media deal (10 years from now) doesn't grow as much, having to split the money 32 ways instead of 30 could hurt.
But honestly? The $10 billion in expansion fees usually wins every argument in the boardroom.
What You Should Do Now
If you’re a fan in one of these cities, or just someone tracking the league's growth, here is the roadmap:
- Watch the 2026 All-Star Break: This is typically when major league news gets leaked or officially announced. If the expansion announcement is coming in 2026, this is a prime window for the "formal process" to begin.
- Follow the Ownership Groups: Keep an eye on who is partnering with who. In Seattle, look for news involving the Kraken ownership. In Vegas, watch LeBron James and the Fenway Sports Group.
- Check Arena News: If a city without a team suddenly starts talking about a $2 billion private arena project, that’s the biggest "smoke" you can find.
The wait for the NBA to expand has been long—the league hasn't added a team since the Charlotte Bobcats in 2004. But with a hard date for a "determination" now set for 2026, the finish line is finally in sight.