You’re sitting on the couch, the TV is glowing with maps of red and blue, and your phone is buzzing with notifications that mean absolutely nothing yet. It’s election night. Or maybe it’s the day after. Or three days after. You’re refreshing a browser tab, waiting for that one specific alert. You want to know: when will AP call the race?
Honestly, the Associated Press (AP) is basically the umpire of American democracy. They’ve been doing this since 1848, back when Zachary Taylor was the one waiting for the news to travel by horse and telegraph. They aren’t just "guessing" or "projecting" like some cable news talking heads might. They wait. They count. And then they wait some more.
The AP doesn’t use the word "projection." Ever. They call them "declarations." It sounds like a small distinction, but in the world of high-stakes politics, it’s everything. If they say someone won, they are 99.9% sure that the person trailing has zero mathematical path to victory.
The "Trailing Candidate" Rule
The whole process boils down to one simple, stubborn question: Can the person who is losing catch up?
If the answer is even a "maybe," the AP stays silent. They don’t care if a candidate has already given a victory speech or if their opponent has conceded. Concessions can be taken back. Math, however, is pretty final.
They look at the "raw" lead—the actual number of votes between the two candidates. Then they look at the "outstanding" votes. This is where it gets tricky. It’s not just about how many ballots are left; it’s about where they are.
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If there are 100,000 ballots left in a county that traditionally votes 80% for the trailing candidate, the race stays "too early to call." Even if the leader is up by 50,000 votes, that batch of 100k could flip the whole thing. The AP analysts are basically walking encyclopedias of local voting history. They know which precincts in Maricopa County, Arizona, or Fulton County, Georgia, tend to report late and which way they lean.
Why some races are called at 8:00 PM (and others take weeks)
You’ve seen it happen. The polls close, and within seconds, the AP calls a state for a candidate. How? They haven't even counted the physical ballots yet!
This usually happens in "noncompetitive" states. If a state has voted for the same party for 40 years and the AP's proprietary survey data—called AP VoteCast—shows a massive, lopsided lead, they might call it the moment the polls close.
But for the "toss-up" states? Buckle up.
In a close race, the AP won't call it if the margin is less than 0.5 percentage points. They’re also looking at the type of ballots left.
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- Mail-in ballots: Usually take longer to verify signatures and process.
- Provisional ballots: These are the last to be counted because they require extra verification.
- Election Day "drops": Some counties report all at once; others trickle in.
The AP tracks all of this. They have a network of thousands of "stringers"—freelance reporters—who are literally standing in county offices, watching the numbers get typed into the system. They aren't just looking at a website; they are at the source.
The "Too Close to Call" vs. "Too Early to Call" Debate
There's a subtle language to this. If you see the AP label a race "too early to call," it means there just isn't enough data yet. Maybe only 10% of the vote is in. Even if one person is up by a mile, the AP won't budge until they see how the rest of the map fills out.
"Too close to call" is different. That’s for when almost all the votes are in, but the margin is so razor-thin that a few hundred provisional or overseas military ballots could change the winner. In these cases, the AP might wait for a mandatory recount to finish before they ever put a checkmark next to a name.
What about the "Balance of Power"?
When will AP call the race for the House or Senate? This is a different beast. They don't just say "The GOP won the House" because it looks likely. They count every single one of the 435 seats individually.
They won't declare a party has control until they’ve called enough individual races to hit the magic numbers:
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- 218 seats for House control.
- 51 seats (or 50 plus the Vice President) for Senate control.
They don't use statistical models to "project" the majority. They literally wait until the 218th person is declared a winner. It’s slow. It’s frustrating for people who want instant answers. But it’s why the AP is considered the gold standard.
How to track it like a pro
If you want to know the second a call is made, you’ve gotta go to the source. The AP News app or their website is where the data hits first.
Don't just look at the big "Winner" headline. Look at the percentage of the "Expected Vote" counted. If you see "98% in" and the margin is 5,000 votes, but the remaining 2% is from a deep-blue city, that race isn't over.
Also, keep an eye on AP VoteCast insights. This isn't a traditional "exit poll" where they talk to people leaving a building. It’s a massive survey of over 100,000 voters (including mail-in voters) that helps the AP understand why the numbers are moving the way they are.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Download the AP News App: Set alerts specifically for "Race Calls" to get the news before it’s filtered through social media.
- Check the "Outstanding Vote" estimates: Instead of just looking at the lead, look for how many ballots are left in specific counties.
- Watch for the 0.5% margin: If a race stays within this window, don't expect a call anytime soon; it’s likely headed for a recount or a "Too Close to Call" designation.
The wait is the hardest part, but when the AP finally makes that call, you can usually take it to the bank. They’d rather be last and right than first and wrong.