If you’re sitting at a bar in St. Paul or grabbing a coffee in Duluth and bring up politics, you’ll probably hear that Minnesota is the "Blue Wall" that never cracks. It’s a point of pride for some and a source of endless frustration for others. But honestly, the history of when was the last time minnesota voted republican is a lot weirder and closer than the "solid blue" label suggests.
Most people think Minnesota has been a Democratic stronghold since the dawn of time. That’s not quite right. For a long stretch of early American history, the state was actually a Republican fortress. But if we’re talking about the big one—the White House—we have to look back to a time of bell-bottoms, disco, and a guy named Richard Nixon.
The Year Nixon Swept the North Star State
The year was 1972. Gas was 36 cents a gallon. The Godfather was the biggest thing in theaters. And Richard Nixon was running for re-election against George McGovern.
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In that election, Minnesota went red. It wasn't even particularly close. Nixon beat McGovern by about 96,000 votes in the state. If you’re keeping track, that is over 50 years ago. Since then, the state has gone for the Democratic candidate in every single presidential election. That is the longest active streak in the entire country. Not even California or New York can claim that kind of consistency.
But here is the thing: Minnesota hasn't always stayed blue because it's overwhelmingly liberal. It’s stayed blue because of a mix of "favorite son" candidates, weird third-party splits, and a very specific type of Midwestern populism that doesn't always play well with the national Republican platform.
Why 1972 Was the Turning Point
Before 1972, Minnesota was actually kind of a swing state, or even lean-Republican. They went for Dwight D. Eisenhower twice in the 50s. They actually liked the "moderate, steady hand" vibe. But the 70s changed the math. The Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party—which is what the Democrats are called in Minnesota—built a massive coalition of urban workers and rural farmers.
When Was the Last Time Minnesota Voted Republican? The 1984 Near-Miss
If you want to understand how "blue" Minnesota really is, you have to look at 1984. This is the election that cemented the state’s legendary status in political trivia.
Ronald Reagan was at the height of his powers. He won 49 out of 50 states. He swept the South, the West, the Northeast, and the rest of the Midwest. But he didn't win Minnesota. Why? Because the Democratic candidate was Walter Mondale, a native Minnesotan who had served as their Senator and as Jimmy Carter’s Vice President.
Even then, with a home-turf advantage, Mondale only won by 3,761 votes.
Think about that. In an electorate of over two million people, the "Blue Wall" was held up by a margin that could fit inside a small-town high school football stadium. If 1,900 people had changed their minds, the answer to when was the last time minnesota voted republican would be 1984, not 1972.
The Trump Surges of 2016 and 2024
Fast forward to the modern era, and the gap started shrinking again. In 2016, Donald Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of flipping the state. He lost to Hillary Clinton by about 44,000 votes.
He did it by flipping "Iron Range" counties—places that had been DFL strongholds for generations. These were mining towns and labor unions that felt abandoned by the modern, more socially progressive Democratic party.
In the most recent 2024 election, the trend continued in a weird way. Kamala Harris won the state by about 4 points, but Trump actually flipped several counties that Joe Biden had won in 2020, including Blue Earth and Winona. He even won Carlton County, which hadn't voted for a Republican since 1928!
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The state is essentially two different worlds now. You have the "Twin Cities" (Minneapolis and St. Paul) and their immediate suburbs, which are deeply blue. Then you have "Greater Minnesota," which is becoming a deep, vibrant red.
It's Not Just About Presidents
While the presidential streak is the headline, the state's internal politics tell a different story. If you're asking about state-level leadership, the answer to when was the last time minnesota voted republican is much more recent.
- The Governor's Mansion: Tim Pawlenty was the last Republican Governor. He won in 2002 and was re-elected in 2006.
- The State House: As of the 2024 elections, the Minnesota House is actually tied! It's a 67-67 split between the DFL and the GOP. This is only the second time in state history that's happened.
- U.S. Senate: This is where the GOP struggles the most. They haven't won a Senate seat in Minnesota since Norm Coleman in 2002.
The "DFL" Factor
You can't talk about Minnesota politics without mentioning the DFL. In most states, it's just the "Democratic Party." But in 1944, the Democrats merged with the Farmer-Labor Party. This created a unique political identity that focused heavily on rural infrastructure, labor rights, and social safety nets.
For decades, this merger kept the state blue. It made the Democratic party feel like the "local" party of the working man. But as the national Democratic party moved toward a more "urban-professional" focus, that old DFL coalition began to fray. That's why we're seeing these razor-thin margins in recent years.
Misconceptions About the "Blue Streak"
There’s this idea that Minnesota is a liberal paradise like Vermont or Massachusetts. Honestly, that’s just not true.
If you look at the raw numbers, Minnesota is often more "purple" than its neighbors like Wisconsin or Iowa—it just happens to land on the blue side of the line by a hair.
For example, in 1998, Minnesota didn't vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Governor. They elected Jesse "The Body" Ventura, a former pro wrestler running on the Reform Party ticket. This shows that Minnesotans have a massive independent streak. They aren't necessarily "loyal" to the Democrats; they just often find the national Republican message to be a tough sell for their specific brand of Midwestern culture.
What Should You Watch For Next?
If you're a political junkie wondering if the streak will ever break, keep your eyes on the suburbs.
The rural areas are already tapped out for Republicans—they’ve won them. The cities are tapped out for Democrats. The entire game is now played in the "collar counties" around the Twin Cities. Places like Dakota County and Anoka County are the new battlegrounds. If Republicans can start winning those suburban moms and "moderate" professionals again, the 1972 streak might finally come to an end in 2028 or 2032.
Actionable Insights for Following Minnesota Politics
If you're trying to keep a pulse on whether Minnesota will stay blue or flip red in the next cycle, here are three things to track:
- Voter Turnout in Hennepin and Ramsey: These are the two biggest counties (Minneapolis and St. Paul). If turnout there drops even 5%, the state becomes a toss-up.
- The "Iron Range" Shift: Watch counties like St. Louis County (Duluth). If the GOP starts winning the areas outside the city of Duluth, the DFL is in serious trouble.
- Third-Party Performance: Minnesota loves a third option. In years where there is a strong Independent or Libertarian candidate, they usually pull more votes from the Democrat, making a Republican win more likely.
Minnesota is currently the longest-running Democratic streak in the country, but as the 2024 results showed, that wall is getting thinner every year. Whether it finally breaks or continues for another 50 years depends entirely on whether the GOP can convince suburban voters that they aren't "too extreme" for the North Star State.
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To stay updated on the shifting demographics, you should regularly check the Minnesota Secretary of State's election data, which provides precinct-level breakdowns of how these shifts are actually happening in real-time. Don't just look at the statewide "blue" result—look at the margins in the suburbs. That's where the next chapter of Minnesota's history will be written.