You're sitting at a smoky felt table, or maybe just staring at a digital version on your phone, and the dealer slides you a Jack and a four. That’s 14. The dealer is showing a 7. Your heart does that weird little flutter because 14 is a "stiff" hand—it's high enough to bust if you take a card, but low enough to lose if you sit still. You look around, maybe catch the eye of the guy next to you who’s been downing gin and tonics, and you wonder: what's the move?
Most people play by "feel." They hit when they feel lucky and stand when they’re scared. That's exactly how casinos pay for those billion-dollar fountains and neon light shows. If you actually want to win—or at least stop handing your paycheck to the house—you have to master exactly when to hit in blackjack based on cold, hard math.
Blackjack isn't a game of intuition. It’s a solved puzzle.
The Brutal Reality of the Dealer’s Upcard
Everything starts with that single card the dealer shows you. If they have a 2 through 6, they are in a "weak" position because they are statistically more likely to bust. If they have a 7 through Ace, they’re in a "strong" position. You aren't just playing your hand; you are playing against the probability of their hand.
Let’s talk about the 12. Most players absolutely hate hitting on 12. They see a 10-value card coming and imagine the "Bust" animation popping up on the screen. But if the dealer shows a 2 or a 3, you must hit. You're a slight underdog, but standing is worse. If the dealer shows a 4, 5, or 6, then you stand. Why the difference? Because a 2 or 3 doesn't actually make the dealer bust as often as people think.
People obsess over their own cards. Stop doing that. The dealer’s upcard is the sun that your entire strategy should orbit around.
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When to Hit in Blackjack on "Stiff" Hands
A "stiff" hand is anything from 12 to 16. These are the hands that ruin your night. They are the reason people drink too much at the table.
If you have a 16 and the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, you hit. Yes, it sucks. Yes, you will probably bust. But guess what? If you stand, you are going to lose even more often. Mathematical giants like Peter Griffin (the mathematician, not the cartoon character) proved in The Theory of Blackjack that hitting a 16 against a 10 is the "least bad" option. You’re trying to catch a small card to survive because the dealer is sitting on a likely 20.
Honestly, the 16 vs. 10 is the most misplayed hand in the history of the game. Most amateurs stand because they want to "stay in the game." They’d rather lose slowly than bust quickly. Don't be that person. If you're playing at a table that allows "Surrender," that’s actually your best move here. If not, take the hit and pray for a 4 or a 5.
The Magic of Soft Hands
Soft hands contain an Ace. They are your best friend because you can’t bust them with a single hit. If you have an Ace and a 6 (Soft 17), and you stand, you are making a massive mistake.
Never stand on Soft 17.
I've seen people do this at the Bellagio, at local dives, and in online rooms. They think 17 is a "good" hand. It isn't. It’s a loser. The dealer has to hit until 17, so the best you can hope for is a push, and even then, many dealers hit on "Soft 17" themselves, giving them a better chance to beat you. When you hit a Soft 17, you have a free shot at improving your hand without any risk of going over 21.
- Soft 13 through 17: You should almost always be hitting these unless the dealer is weak enough for you to double down.
- Soft 18: This is the tricky one. You stand if the dealer has a 2, 7, or 8. You hit if the dealer has a 9, 10, or Ace.
It feels counterintuitive to hit an 18. It feels like you're throwing away a decent hand. But the math shows that against a dealer's 9 or 10, an 18 is actually a losing hand in the long run. You need to be aggressive.
Why 11 is the Best Number in the World
If you have an 11, you aren't just hitting. You are doubling down.
The only exception is if the dealer is showing an Ace (and even then, in some game variations, you still double). You want more money on the table when you are the favorite. When you hit an 11, the most likely card you’ll get is a 10-value card. That gives you 21. It’s the most satisfying feeling in the casino, barring a natural blackjack.
Common Myths That Will Break Your Bankroll
There is a segment of players who believe in the "Flow of the Cards." They think that if a "bad" player hits when they shouldn't have, it "takes the dealer's bust card."
This is complete nonsense.
The deck doesn't know who is playing. The math remains the same regardless of whether the person to your right is a genius or a total moron. Another myth is that you should always play as if the dealer has a 10 in the hole. While 10s are the most common cards (16 out of 52 cards), playing strictly by this rule will lead you to make mistakes on marginal hands. You have to follow the charts, not a "hunch" about what's underneath.
The Strategy for Hitting Pairs
Splitting is technically a form of hitting because you’re adding cards to your hand.
Always split Aces and 8s.
Never split 10s or 5s.
A pair of 8s is a 16. As we discussed, 16 is the worst hand in blackjack. By splitting them, you turn one garbage hand into two potentially decent hands starting with 8. Conversely, a pair of 10s is a 20. Why would you mess with a 20? You already won the hand. Don't get greedy.
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Real World Example: The 13 vs. 2
Imagine you’re at a $25 minimum table. You have a King and a 3. The dealer shows a 2.
The "book" says you should stand. A lot of people hit here because they think the 2 is a "baby card" and the dealer will eventually make a hand. But the dealer is actually quite vulnerable with a 2. You stay at 13 and wait for them to go over. If you hit and get a Jack, you're out $25 because you were impatient.
Technical Variations: H17 vs. S17
You need to look at the sign on the table. It will either say "Dealer must stand on all 17s" or "Dealer hits soft 17."
If the dealer hits soft 17 (H17), the house edge is slightly higher. This changes a few of your hitting decisions. Specifically, you should be more aggressive with doubling down and hitting certain soft hands because the dealer has a better chance of improving their own hand. It’s a subtle shift, but professional players live in those margins.
Actionable Steps for Your Next Session
If you want to master when to hit in blackjack, you can’t rely on memory alone while bells are ringing and cocktail waitresses are asking if you want another round.
- Buy a strategy card. They are legal in almost every casino. You can literally hold it in your hand while you play. If a pit boss tells you that you can't, find a better casino.
- Practice with a simulator. Use a free app on your phone and set it to "test mode" where it alerts you every time you make a mathematical error.
- Ignore the "table talk." Other players will try to tell you how to play. They are usually wrong. If someone gets mad that you hit a 12 against a 2, just smile and ignore them.
- Manage your bankroll. Even perfect strategy won't save you from a bad run of cards. You should have at least 20 to 50 times the table minimum in your pocket before you sit down.
- Watch the rules. Only play tables that pay 3:2 for Blackjack. If the sign says 6:5, get up and walk away. The hitting strategy stays the same, but the payout is so bad that the math will never be in your favor.
The goal isn't to win every hand. That's impossible. The goal is to make the mathematically correct decision every single time. If you do that, you reduce the house edge to less than 0.5%. At that point, you aren't gambling; you're just trading money back and forth with the casino until a lucky streak puts you ahead.
Stop guessing. Start hitting when the math tells you to, and standing when it doesn't. Your wallet will thank you.
Next Steps for Mastery
Start by memorizing the "stiff" hand rules: always hit a 12 through 16 when the dealer shows a 7 or higher. Once that becomes second nature, move on to the soft hand variations. Consistency is more important than luck in the long run.