You’re sitting at a smoky felt table or staring at a digital dealer on your phone, and the tension is thick. You’ve got a 16. The dealer is showing a 7. Your heart says stay because you don’t want to bust, but the math is screaming at you to do the opposite. Honestly, most players lose money not because of bad luck, but because they treat the decision of when to hit blackjack like a vibe check instead of a probability problem.
Blackjack is unique. It’s one of the few games in the casino where your choices actually dictate the house edge. If you play like a "hunch" gambler, the house edge can soar to 5% or higher. If you play by the book—specifically the Basic Strategy developed by pioneers like Julian Braun and the Four Horsemen of Aberdeen—you can whittle that edge down to about 0.5%. That is a massive difference.
The Dealer’s Upcard Is Your North Star
Everything starts with what the dealer is showing. You aren't playing against the deck; you're playing against a specific set of rules the dealer must follow. In almost every casino, the dealer must hit until they reach at least 17. This predictable behavior is your only real leverage.
When the dealer shows a 2 through 6, they are in a "weak" position. They are statistically more likely to bust. When they show a 7 through Ace, they are in a "strong" position. This distinction should fundamentally change your aggressiveness. If the dealer has a 6, you might stay on a measly 12. Why? Because you're just waiting for them to trip over their own feet and bust. But if they have a 9, and you have a 12, you have to hit. You're probably going to lose that hand either way, but hitting gives you a slightly better chance of survival. It’s about damage control.
The Danger Zone: Hard 12 Through 16
This is where the game is won or lost. Most people call these "stiff" hands. You’re close enough to 21 to feel okay, but close enough to 21 that any face card sends you to the rail.
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Let’s talk about 16. It is the worst hand in the game. If you have a hard 16 (no Ace counting as 11) and the dealer shows a 7, 8, 9, 10, or Ace, you hit. Period. It feels like suicide. You know a 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10 will bust you. But the dealer’s chances of making a hand better than 16 are so high that "staying" is actually the more expensive mistake over the long run.
Check the math: against a dealer 10, staying on 16 loses you about 54 cents for every dollar bet. Hitting loses you about 48 cents. Neither is "good," but hitting saves you 6 cents on the dollar. Over a thousand hands, that's the difference between a steak dinner and an empty wallet.
Soft Hands Change the Entire Calculation
A "soft" hand is any hand containing an Ace that can be counted as 1 or 11 without busting. These are your best opportunities to be aggressive. You can't bust a soft hand with one hit.
Many amateurs see a Soft 18 (Ace-7) and think, "I’ll stay, 18 is a good hand."
Wrong.
If the dealer is showing a 9, 10, or Ace, your 18 is actually a losing hand. You should hit. Most people are terrified to hit an 18 because they think they’ll end up with a 12 or 13. While that can happen, the goal is to improve that 18 or, at the very least, take a free shot at a 19 or 20 when the dealer is likely to end up with a 19 or 20 themselves.
When to Hit Blackjack vs. When to Double Down
Sometimes hitting isn't enough. Sometimes you need to put more money on the table. Doubling down is essentially "hitting" with the caveat that you only get one card.
The most common mistake? Not doubling on 11. I don't care if the dealer is showing an Ace (unless the rules say they check for Blackjack first and they have it). You double that 11. You also double a 10 against anything but a dealer 10 or Ace.
There are also soft doubling opportunities that people miss. If you have an Ace and a 6 (Soft 17), and the dealer shows a 3 through 6, you don't just hit. You double. You're taking advantage of the dealer's high bust probability while trying to land a 10 or an 8 to solidify your total. It’s a power move. Use it.
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The Misunderstood Role of "The Table"
You’ll often hear grumpy old-timers at the table yelling at a "third base" player for hitting when they "shouldn't have," claiming it "took the dealer's bust card."
Let's be clear: this is total nonsense.
The cards in the shoe are random. While a "bad" play might occasionally result in the dealer getting a card that saves them, it is just as likely to result in the dealer getting a card that busts them. Mathematically, the way other people play has zero impact on your long-term expected value. Don't let table pressure dictate when you hit. Stick to the math.
Surrender: The Move People Forget
In some games, you have the option to "surrender." This is where you give up half your bet and toss the hand before hitting or staying. It’s not "quitting"; it’s smart bankroll management.
If you have a 15 against a dealer 10, or a 16 against a dealer 9, 10, or Ace, you should surrender if the casino allows it. It’s better to lose 50% of your bet for sure than to lose 100% of it 75% of the time.
Why 12 is the Weirdest Hand
Twelve is a psychological nightmare. You have two small cards, like a 5 and a 7. If the dealer shows a 2 or a 3, your gut says "stay" because they are weak. But the math says hit.
Why? Because a dealer showing a 2 or 3 isn't actually that weak. They have a decent chance of making a hand. You only "stay" on a 12 if the dealer is showing a 4, 5, or 6. Those are the "true" bust cards. Against a 2 or 3, you are still the underdog, so you hit and hope to catch one of the many cards that won't bust you.
Splitting: A Different Kind of Hitting
Splitting is basically hitting twice on two different paths.
- Always split Aces.
- Always split 8s.
- NEVER split 10s or 5s.
Splitting 8s is a defensive move. Two 8s make 16—the worst hand. By splitting them, you have two chances to start with an 8 and land a 10, turning one garbage hand into two decent ones.
Real World Nuance: Deck Counts and Rule Variations
The advice on when to hit blackjack changes slightly depending on the specific table rules.
- H17 vs. S17: Does the dealer hit on a soft 17? If they do, the house edge is higher, and you need to be slightly more aggressive with your doubling.
- Deck Count: A single-deck game is a different beast than an eight-deck shoe. In single-deck, you hit less often on certain hands because the cards you see have a bigger impact on the remaining deck's composition.
- Double After Split (DAS): If the casino allows you to double after you split, you should split more aggressively (like splitting 2s and 3s against a dealer 2 or 3).
Practical Steps for Your Next Session
If you want to stop bleeding money at the casino, you need a plan. Walking up to a table and "feeling" the cards is a great way to lose your rent money.
- Get a Strategy Card: They are legal. You can literally hold them at the table in most casinos. It’s a cheat sheet that tells you exactly when to hit. Use it.
- Ignore the "Flow": There is no such thing as a "hot" or "cold" deck in a way that you can sense without counting cards. Treat every hand as an isolated mathematical event.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Even with perfect strategy, you will have losing streaks. You need at least 20 to 50 times your minimum bet to weather the natural volatility of the game.
- Watch the Payouts: Never play at a table that pays 6:5 for Blackjack. Only play 3:2. The 6:5 rule is a scam that triples the house edge, making your hitting strategy almost irrelevant.
Blackjack is a game of thin margins. You win by making the "less bad" decision over and over again until the math swings in your favor. If you hit when the book says hit, and stay when the book says stay, you’re already playing better than 90% of the people in the room.
Stop guessing. Start calculating.
Actionable Insights Summary
To master the art of the hit, memorize these four non-negotiables:
- Hit any hard 12-16 if the dealer shows a 7 or higher.
- Always hit a Soft 17 (Ace-6) regardless of what the dealer shows (unless you are doubling).
- Never hit a hard 17 or higher, no matter how much you think the dealer has a 20.
- Hit a 12 against a dealer 2 or 3—don't be afraid of the bust.
Success at the table isn't about the big wins; it's about not killing yourself with unforced errors on the mediocre hands. Go find a 3:2 table, pull out your strategy card, and play with the discipline of a machine. That is the only way to beat the house.