If you’re checking your calendar to figure out when is trudeau up for election, you might want to sit down. The political landscape in Canada didn't just shift over the last year; it basically went through a blender. For a long time, everyone had October 2025 circled in red. That was the "fixed date," the deadline, the moment of truth. But then the 2024–2025 political crisis hit Ottawa like a freight train, and the rulebook got tossed out the window.
Honestly, the short answer to when Justin Trudeau is up for election is actually: he isn't. At least, not as Prime Minister.
The Shocking Transition: Why the 2025 Election Happened Early
Politics moves fast, but December 2024 was something else. You might remember the headlines. Chrystia Freeland, long considered Trudeau's most loyal lieutenant, abruptly resigned on December 16, 2024. It wasn't just a cabinet shuffle; it was a total fracture. Within days, dozens of Liberal MPs were publicly calling for a change at the top.
By January 6, 2025, Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down. He didn't lose an election in the traditional sense; he read the room (and the dismal polling numbers) and decided to let the party find a new path before the country headed to the polls. That path led straight to Mark Carney, the former central banker, who was sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14, 2025.
Because Carney was an unelected Prime Minister—the first in Canadian history to never have held a seat before taking the top job—he needed a mandate. He didn't wait. He advised the Governor General to dissolve Parliament almost immediately.
The April 28, 2025 Federal Election
The 45th Canadian federal election took place on April 28, 2025. This was the "early" election everyone had been speculating about for years. It was a wild ride. You had Pierre Poilievre leading a Conservative surge that looked unstoppable in the polls, only to see the Liberals rebound under Carney's "competence-first" branding.
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The results were a bit of a mess for everyone:
- The Liberals won 169 seats. They stayed in power but fell three seats short of a majority.
- The Conservatives jumped to 144 seats but, in a massive twist, Pierre Poilievre actually lost his own seat in the riding of Carleton.
- The NDP absolutely collapsed, winning only 7 seats and losing official party status.
So, if you were looking for Trudeau on that ballot, he was gone. He had already passed the torch.
When Is the Next Canadian Federal Election Scheduled?
Since we just had one in April 2025, the law—specifically the Canada Elections Act—dictates the new timeline. Under the fixed-date provisions, a federal election must be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year following the previous poll.
That puts the next scheduled date as October 15, 2029.
That sounds like a long way off, right? Four years is an eternity in politics. But here’s the thing: we are currently in a minority government situation. Mark Carney is running the show, but he’s doing it by the skin of his teeth. As of early 2026, the Liberals are just one seat shy of a majority because a couple of Conservative MPs—Chris d’Entremont and Michael Ma—actually crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus.
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Could we see an election sooner than 2029?
Absolutely. Minority governments in Canada rarely last the full four years. They usually average about 18 to 24 months. While the question of when is trudeau up for election is technically settled (he's out), the question of when the current government could fall is a daily conversation in Ottawa.
If the opposition parties—the Conservatives (currently searching for a new leader after Poilievre's loss) and the Bloc Québécois—decide to team up and vote down a "supply" bill (like the Budget), the government falls. Carney would then have to head to Rideau Hall and ask for another election.
Key Dates to Watch in 2026
While we aren't looking at a federal election this year, 2026 is actually a massive year for voters in other ways. If you live in certain provinces, you’ll be heading to the polls way before 2029.
- Quebec Provincial Election: Scheduled for October 5, 2026. This is going to be a huge deal because Premier François Legault just announced he’s stepping down, leaving the CAQ in a bit of a tailspin.
- Municipal Elections: A huge chunk of the country has local elections in October 2026, including Ontario, BC, Manitoba, and PEI.
- Federal By-elections: Keep an eye on the riding of University—Rosedale. Chrystia Freeland’s former seat is vacant, and a by-election has to be called by July 8, 2026. This will be the first big test of the "Carney effect" since the general election.
Why the "Trudeau Era" Ended Without an Election Defeat
It's kinda fascinating when you think about it. Most people expected Trudeau to go down swinging in a massive showdown with Poilievre. Instead, the pressure came from inside the house. The "cost of living" crisis and a series of bruising trade threats from the U.S. made the Liberal caucus nervous. They saw the writing on the wall.
Trudeau's resignation allowed the Liberals to "reset" without the baggage of a decade in power. It worked, sort of. They didn't get their majority, but they didn't get wiped out either.
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What This Means for You
Basically, don't expect to see "Justin Trudeau" on a ballot anytime soon. He’s moved into the "former PM" stage of his career, likely focusing on international speaking or advisory roles. The focus has shifted entirely to Mark Carney and how he handles the looming CUSMA (trade agreement) review with the U.S. in 2026.
If you’re a political junkie or just someone trying to plan your civic duty, here is the reality:
- Federal level: Barring a government collapse, your next big vote is October 2029.
- Provincial level: If you're in Quebec, get ready for October 2026.
- Local level: Almost everyone in Canada should check their municipal registration for the fall of 2026.
Keep your voter registration up to date at Elections Canada, especially if you've moved recently. Minority governments are famously unpredictable; while 2029 is the "official" answer, the political climate is so volatile that a snap election could happen whenever the math stops working for the Liberals in the House of Commons. For now, the "Trudeau" chapter is closed, and the "Carney" era is being written one floor-crossing MP at a time.
To stay prepared, ensure you are registered on the National Register of Electors and follow the by-election results in University—Rosedale this spring, as it will be the clearest indicator of whether the current government can maintain its slim hold on power.