It feels like a lifetime ago that the white smoke finally drifted over St. Peter’s Square. Honestly, the events of 2025 were a blur of red robes, frantic news cycles, and a sense of "end of an era" that hit the Catholic world like a ton of bricks. If you’re asking when is the next pope vote, you might be catching up on the fact that we’ve already had one.
Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025.
The conclave that followed was one of the most watched events in modern religious history. It kicked off on May 7, 2025. After a series of votes that kept everyone on the edge of their seats—and several rounds of that stubborn black smoke—the cardinals finally reached a consensus. On May 8, 2025, the world met Pope Leo XIV.
So, strictly speaking, there isn't another "scheduled" vote. That's not how the Vatican works. They don't have four-year terms or midterms. A pope generally stays in the chair until he dies or, as we saw with Benedict XVI, decides it’s time to step down because the job is just too physically demanding.
When is the next pope vote actually likely to happen?
Predicting a papal election is a bit like trying to predict the weather in a century. You just can’t do it with a calendar. Since Leo XIV was only just elected in May of last year, we are currently in what many Vatican watchers call the "honeymoon phase" of his papacy. He spent the better part of 2025 closing out the Jubilee Year that Francis had started, basically following a roadmap that was already laid out for him.
Now that we’ve hit January 2026, Leo XIV is finally starting to make the office his own.
He recently held his first extraordinary consistory of cardinals. That's a big deal because it’s where he starts picking the people who will eventually vote for his successor. If you're looking for a date, you're looking for a mystery. Unless there’s a sudden health crisis or a resignation, we probably won't be seeing the Sistine Chapel chimney smoking again for a long time.
Popes are staying older longer. Modern medicine is a miracle, but it also means the "waiting game" for the next conclave can stretch into decades.
How the process works (The "Secrecy" bit)
When a vote does happen, it’s not a standard ballot box situation. It’s a Conclave. The word literally means "with a key." They lock the cardinals in. They sweep the room for bugs—electronic ones, not the six-legged kind.
The rules are pretty intense:
- No phones.
- No newspapers.
- No Tweeting (or whatever we're calling it this week).
- If a cardinal leaks what's happening inside, they face automatic excommunication.
They stay in the Casa Santa Marta, a guest house inside the Vatican, and walk over to the Sistine Chapel to vote. They need a two-thirds majority. If nobody gets it, they burn the ballots with a chemical that makes the smoke black. If they find their man, they use a different chemical to turn the smoke white.
Why people are already talking about the "Next" one
It sounds a bit morbid, doesn't it? Talking about the next vote when the current guy just got the keys to the apartment. But the Catholic Church is an institution that thinks in centuries, not fiscal quarters.
People are obsessed with the "next" vote because the College of Cardinals is currently a fascinating mix of "Francis appointees" and the newer "Leo appointees." There’s a constant tug-of-war between the progressive wing and the traditionalists. Every time a new cardinal is named, the math for the next vote changes.
Leo XIV has been moving quickly. He’s already started visiting places like Spain—Madrid, Barcelona, even the Canary Islands. He’s trying to show he’s got the stamina for the job.
What to watch for in 2026
Since there’s no vote on the immediate horizon, what should you actually pay attention to?
Keep an eye on the "Consistory" announcements. When the Pope names new cardinals, he is essentially stacking the deck for the future. Also, watch the health bulletins. In 2025, the world was glued to updates about lung infections and supplemental oxygen. For now, Leo XIV seems to be in the clear, but in the Vatican, things can change over a weekend.
Basically, if you see the Vatican Museums suddenly announce they're closing the Sistine Chapel "until further notice," that's your signal. Until then, the "next" vote is just a theoretical conversation for theologians and journalists over espresso in Borgo Pio.
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Next Steps for the Curious:
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, keep a tab on the Bollettino (the official Vatican press feed). It’s dry, it’s in Italian half the time, but it’s the only place where real news actually breaks before it hits the tabloids. You might also want to look into the current list of "Papabile"—the cardinals who are considered the frontrunners for whenever that next inevitable vote finally arrives.