The Bronx is currently holding its breath. If you’ve been scrolling through Twitter or checking the latest RotoWire updates, you know the vibe around the New York Yankees’ rotation right now is, well, "unsettled" to put it mildly. We’re deep into January 2026, and the big question looming over Steinbrenner Field is: when is Gerrit Cole coming back?
Honestly, it’s been a long road. After Cole underwent Tommy John surgery with an internal brace in March 2025, the Yankees were forced to navigate an entire season without their ace. It sucked. There’s no other way to put it. Watching him go the "rest-and-rehab" route in 2024 only to realize surgery was unavoidable last spring was a gut punch for the front office and fans alike.
So, where do we stand now?
The Timeline: When Is Gerrit Cole Coming Back?
The short answer? Not for Opening Day.
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Bryan Hoch of MLB.com and several other team insiders have been hammering home a specific window: late May or early June 2026.
Manager Aaron Boone has been predictably cautious in his pressers, basically saying Gerrit will be ready when he’s ready. But let’s look at the hard facts. As of mid-January, Cole has been throwing on flat ground. He hasn't progressed to mound work yet. For a guy coming off a major elbow reconstruction at 35 years old, the Yankees aren't going to rush a single thing.
Michael Kay recently mentioned on The Show podcast that he was actually surprised it was taking this long. He thought the "internal brace" technique—which usually has a faster turnaround than traditional Tommy John—might get Cole back for April. But the Yankees are playing the long game. They have him under contract through 2028, and they’d rather have him dominant in October than available in April.
Why the wait is longer than you think
It isn't just about the ligament healing. It’s about the "stuff." If you remember back in 2024, before the total shutdown, Cole’s velocity was a tick down and his command was... let's call it "un-Cole-like."
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- Age factor: He’s 35. The body doesn't bounce back like it did in 2013 with the Pirates.
- Pitch count build-up: He’ll need a full "spring training" in May, likely with 4-5 rehab starts in Somerset or Scranton.
- The Rotation context: With Carlos Rodón also sidelined until late April following bone spur surgery, the Yankees are relying on Max Fried and the newly acquired Ryan Weathers to keep the ship afloat.
What the Yankees’ Rotation Looks Like Without Him
While we wait to find out exactly when is Gerrit Cole coming back, the Yankees have had to get creative. They just pulled off a trade with the Marlins for Ryan Weathers. It cost them four prospects, but they needed a body.
Here is what the projected Opening Day rotation looks like while Cole is in the trainer’s room:
- Max Fried (The de facto ace for now)
- Cam Schlittler (The young gun who's looked solid)
- Will Warren
- Ryan Weathers
- Luis Gil (Assuming his command holds up)
It’s not exactly the "Bronx Bombers" of pitching. It’s a "hold the line" group. Once Cole and Rodón return in that May/June window, the dynamic changes entirely. You're looking at a trio of Fried, Cole, and Rodón that, on paper, should be terrifying.
Can He Still Be the "Ace"?
This is the part nobody really wants to talk about. Is a 35-year-old Gerrit Cole coming off Tommy John still a Cy Young contender?
In 2023, he was the best in the American League. But 2023 feels like a lifetime ago in baseball years. In 2024, his ERA+ was 118—decent, but his lowest since his Pittsburgh days. His strikeouts were down, and his walks were up.
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Some analysts, like those over at the Start Spreading the News blog, are pretty skeptical. They argue that we should expect a "good" pitcher, but maybe not the "Cole Train" that strikes out 300 guys a year. He might have to reinvent himself a bit, leaning more on his sequencing and less on pure, high-heat intimidation.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Fantasy Owners
If you're tracking this for your 2026 fantasy draft or just because you’ve got tickets for a June series at the Stadium, here’s how to handle the news:
- Don't over-draft in Fantasy: Most ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) have him around P #99. His ADP is sliding into the 200s. He’s a "stash" play, not a cornerstone.
- Watch the late April reports: That is when he should be moving to mound work. If he hits a snag there, that June 1st return date starts sliding toward the All-Star break.
- Monitor the rehab starts: Don't look at the ERA in Triple-A. Look at the velocity. If he's sitting 96-98 mph, he's back. If he's struggling to hit 94, it’s going to be a long summer.
- Keep an eye on the bullpen: Because Cole won't be throwing 100 pitches right away, guys like Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn are going to be eating a lot of middle innings in June.
The bottom line is that the Yankees are betting $324 million that Gerrit Cole has one more "peak" left in him. We won't truly know if they're right until the heat of the summer, but for now, mark your calendars for June. That is when the real season starts for New York.
Keep an eye on the official Yankees transaction wire as we get closer to Spring Training. Any deviation from his current flat-ground throwing program will be the first sign of whether the "early June" goal is realistic or just wishful thinking by a team that desperately needs its leader back on the bump.