The name Manning carries a weight in football that’s almost hard to quantify. When you’re the nephew of Peyton and Eli, and the grandson of Archie, people start projecting your NFL career while you're still figuring out where to sit in the high school cafeteria. Now that he's a household name at Texas, the million-dollar question—or multi-million dollar question, really—is: when is Arch Manning draft eligible?
Honestly, the answer is a mix of hard-and-fast NFL rules and the kind of family strategy that has defined football dynasties for decades.
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The Hard Rule: 2026 is the Magic Number
Let's get the logistics out of the way first. According to NFL eligibility rules, a player must be at least three years removed from high school graduation to enter the draft. Arch Manning graduated from Isidore Newman in New Orleans as part of the Class of 2023.
Do the math.
One year as a true freshman (2023). One year as a redshirt freshman/sophomore (2024). A third year (2025). This means Arch Manning is first eligible for the NFL Draft in April 2026. But here’s the kicker. Just because he can leave doesn't mean he will. In fact, if you look at how the 2025 season just wrapped up, the vibes in Austin suggest he’s nowhere near ready to pack his bags for the league.
Why the 2026 Draft Might Not Happen for Arch
If you spent any time watching the Longhorns this past season, you saw the "Arch Experience" in full. It was... bumpy. There were moments where he looked like a absolute wizard, throwing deep balls that looked like they were guided by GPS. Then there were games like the UTEP or Ohio State matchups where he looked like a kid who was, well, a first-year starter in the SEC.
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NFL scouts don't just draft names; they draft tape. And Manning's 2025 tape was a bit of a rollercoaster.
- Completion Percentage: Hovering around 61%. In today’s game, NFL teams want to see that closer to 65% or 70% before they hand over a $40 million contract.
- The "Yips" Rumors: Early in the 2025 season, some scouts were worried he was playing too mechanically. He was "gripping the ball too hard," as one source told The Athletic.
- Family Tradition: This is the big one. Peyton and Eli both stayed for their senior years. The Manning family has never been in a rush to get to the pros. They prioritize being "NFL ready" over being "NFL eligible."
The Financial Reality of NIL
In the old days, a guy like Arch would have to leave early to protect his future. One bad knee injury in college and you lose millions. But it’s 2026. The NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) landscape has changed everything.
Arch Manning is currently valued at roughly $5.3 million according to On3. He is literally the highest-paid athlete in college sports. When you're making more than some NFL starters while living in Austin and playing for Steve Sarkisian, the "rush" to the draft starts to feel a bit silly.
He recently told reporters before the Citrus Bowl against Michigan that he "wants to keep it going" at Texas. He basically confirmed he’s returning for the 2026 college season.
When Will He Actually Declare?
If he skips the 2026 draft—which he has officially signaled he will—that moves the timeline to the 2027 NFL Draft.
By 2027, he’ll have two full years of SEC starts under his belt. He’ll have dealt with the pressure of a 12-team playoff race. He’ll be 22 years old. For a quarterback, that is the "sweet spot" for a franchise to take you at No. 1 overall.
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"He’ll be the first quarterback taken and a possible first overall pick whenever he decides to come out," one NFL executive told FOX Sports. "Don't underestimate the power of the Manning name."
What to Watch for in 2026
If you’re a fan of a QB-needy NFL team like the Raiders, Giants, or Saints, you’re probably disappointed he isn't coming out this April. But for his development, staying is the smart play.
Here is what Arch needs to do in 2026 to lock in that No. 1 spot for 2027:
- Improve Pre-Snap Reads: He took 23 sacks in 2025. Some of those were on the O-line, but many were Arch not seeing the blitz.
- Consistency on the Road: Texas was 9-3 this past season, but they struggled in hostile environments. He needs to prove he can win in places like Athens or Tuscaloosa.
- Physical Bulk: He’s 6'4" and about 220 lbs. NFL scouts want to see him closer to 230 lbs to handle the hits he'll take on Sundays.
Basically, the "When is Arch Manning draft eligible" question has two answers. He is legally eligible for the 2026 draft, but he is strategically trending toward the 2027 or even 2028 draft.
If you want to track his progress, keep an eye on his passing efficiency numbers during the 2026 September slate. If he lights up Ohio State in the rematch, the "No. 1 overall" hype will reach a fever pitch.
For now, enjoy the fact that one of the most talented prospects in recent memory is staying in the college game. It's rare. It's fun. And it’s probably the best thing for his long-term career.
Next Steps for Fans and Analysts:
Check the official NFL underclassman declaration list released every January to see if there are any last-minute surprises, though Manning has already privately committed to returning. You should also monitor the NCAA Transfer Portal, as the weapons Texas surrounds him with in 2026 will directly impact his final draft grade.